Falcons vs. Cowboys Week 10 Picks: Can Atlanta Upset Dallas?

Sportsbook Review

Last Updated: November 11, 2021 12:12 PM EST • 1 min 57 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

The surging Atlanta Falcons have risen from the dead to become a worthy foe. They're looking to upset the Dallas Cowboys after three wins over their last four games. The Cowboys are an NFC favorite, but they need to bounce back following a bad loss to Denver in Week 9.

It's funny how fast things can change in the NFL. I was completely averse to betting on Atlanta to begin the season, and we profited from that decision.

But after three games, there was a change in their level of play. Something clicked for head coach Arthur Smith and his team, and the Falcons have been performing much better since September.

They face a tough challenge after upsetting the New Orleans Saints last week. Dallas was red-hot until shockingly losing 30-16 to Denver. Now they must go back to the drawing board.

This is a unique matchup because of the stylistic differences between the two teams. Atlanta isn't more talented than Dallas, but the Falcons' passing offense and defense can apply pressure.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL's Week 10 matchup between the Falcons and the Cowboys (odds via DraftKings, and pick confidence is based on a one-to-five star scale).

Falcons vs. Cowboys Game Info

Date/Time: November 14, 2021 at 1 p.m. ETTV: FOXLocation: AT&T Stadium

Falcons vs. Cowboys Odds Analysis

This line opened at 9.5 despite Dallas' brutal loss last week. However, it's already dropped to a much more manageable eight points. That's good for Cowboys bettors, but not a great sign for sharps wanting to grab Atlanta.

The total of 54.5 has risen significantly from the opening 50.5 as well. Both lines have moved a ton, but there's value to be had now.

Falcons vs. Cowboys Betting Picks

Falcons +8.5 (-110) ???Under 54.5 (-105) ??

Falcons vs. Cowboys Predictions

Falcons +8.5 (-110)

Both Dallas and Atlanta are stuck in a streak of close games too comfortable to continue enduring. Atlanta hasn't played a game with a margin of victory greater than six points since its first two contests. Dallas at least has experienced more variance, but giving the Cowboys 8.5 points against a feisty Atlanta team isn't a comfortable thought.

The Cowboys' pass defense is notably weak, and the Falcons boast an effective passing offense, with Matt Ryan averaging 269.6 yards per game. The Cowboys' 25th-ranked passing defense is the main reason why they're 18th in scoring allowed despite being on the field less than 21 other teams.

Ryan will produce chunk gains throughout a huge day, allowing the Falcons to stay within one score.

Under 54.5 (-105)

It would've been great to get in on the original total of 50.5, but the line has moved so far upward that it's a sharp play to go under now.

It's possible these teams explode for a 60-point offensive battle, but the more likely outcome is the Cowboys winning a 28-24 type of game. This is the largest line of the week, and it's a sell for me.