Falcons vs. 49ers NFL Picks: Play San Francisco at Value Price of +7.5

Joe Gavazzi

Saturday, November 7, 2015 9:50 PM UTC

Saturday, Nov. 7, 2015 9:50 PM UTC

The Atlanta Falcons try to get back on the win column when they visit the struggling San Francisco 49ers. Which team are we backing with our NFL picks as the Lone Ranger contrary play of the week?

Atlanta Falcons (-7.5) at San Francisco 49ers, Sunday, November 8 at 4:05 EST
The Atlanta Falcons travel three time zones west to face the San Francisco 49ers in this NFC non-division contest. If you did not learn your lesson in week 1 when the San Francisco 49ers went from 2 point home favorite to 3 point home dog against Minnesota (a 20-3 San Francisco victory), then you are bound to repeat your mistake with this contest. Savvy NFL players, however, will join me and the Lone Ranger as the only players on the planet who, after this line opened at Atlanta -3, will take the inflated number of San Francisco +7, for there appears to be little chance that the 49ers will sniff victory this week. Let’s go inside the handicap to see why America is flying with the Falcons today.


Atlanta Falcons
From a fundamental perspective, Atlanta first year HC Quinn is well aware of the San Francisco 49ers. As Seattle DC in previous seasons, he prepared for San Francisco twice a year. The problem with that concept is that San Francisco starting QB Kaepernick may not get the starting nod this week, as well as the fact that the 49ers have the greatest roster turnover of any team in the NFL. Other reasons to favor Atlanta are that when these teams last met in 2013, San Francisco recorded a (34-24) victory in the city by the Bay. Note two things. First, that the 49ers were a 14 point favorite in this game (making this ONLY a 21 point line swing). And second, that Falcons’ QB Ryan is a perfect 8-0 ATS when playing with revenge and coming off a loss as a favorite in the previous game.

That the Atlanta Falcons did when they lost a (23-20) OT decision to Tampa Bay, who capitalized on four turnovers for the victory, despite being outgained by the Falcons 496-290. That was the fourth consecutive point spread defeat, all as favorite, for an Atlanta team who began the year 4-0 SU ATS.


San Francisco 49ers
After starting the first half of the season 2-6 SU, the 49ers, plagued by injuries, will be making numerous changes. Last week, they lost in St Louis (27-6), as they were outrushed 197-38 and outgained 388-189. NFL bettors don’t like teams such as that, and neither do NFL owners. As a result, look for wholesale changes, including at the signal caller position where QB Gabbert, with his 3-11 SU ATS mark as starter at home, will take the reins. It is true that for the season to date, the 49ers are getting outscored 26-14 and outgained 404-282. Of more relevance to this game is that San Francisco is 2-2 SU ATS on this field, allowing just 15 PPG. Maybe there’s hope for the 49ers in this game.

At a value price of +7 points, you will be wise to join me and the Lone Ranger by putting the NFL odds in your favor and following my NFL PICK on the San Francisco 49ers as the Lone Ranger contrary play of the week.

NFL Picks: 49ers +7.5 at Pinnacle

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