Falcons vs. Dolphins Week 7 Picks: Miami Is a Must Fade

Miami’s travel situation creates a unique betting angle for this game and is among the reasons why we are taking Atlanta as a slim road favorite in our Falcons and Dolphins picks for Week 7.

After beating a team that they really should have won against, which is something they had failed to do in Week 4, the Atlanta Falcons are one game away from .500.

Coming off a bye week, Atlanta (2-3 against the spread, 3-2 Over/Under) will look to reassert itself in the NFC playoff race by beating a struggling Miami Dolphins squad that is 1-5 straight up. Miami enters this game on a five-game SU losing streak and is 2-4 ATS in its six contests.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 7 matchup between the Falcons and Dolphins (odds via DraftKings).

Falcons vs. Dolphins Week 7 Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, October 24, 1 p.m. ETTV: FOXLocation: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FLWeather: 85 degrees, chance of thunderstorms

Falcons vs. Dolphins Odds

Both the spread and the total have basically stayed put all week. At most sportsbooks, the Falcons are favored by 2.5 points while the O/U sits at 47.5.

The SBR consensus shows a little more than half of bettors are getting behind the home underdogs for their Falcons and Dolphins picks.

Falcons vs. Dolphins Picks

Falcons -2.5 (-115)Over 47.5 (-110)

SEE ALSO: Jets vs. Patriots Week 7 Picks

Falcons vs. Dolphins Predictions

Falcons -2.5 (-115)

Miami is in a must-fade situation for two reasons — one related to travel and the other related to player morale.

Last Sunday, the Dolphins played in London. Traveling to London is quite a trip and making that journey takes a toll on the body. As a result, teams usually receive a bye week after playing there and tend to struggle when they don't get one.

Jacksonville, for example, in the year it nearly made the Super Bowl, managed to lose to the Jets when it played them a week after decimating Baltimore in London.

The Dolphins are also worth fading due to a barrage of reports indicating the unwillingness of several players to be there. These reports suggest a cultural issue that is not being factored in by oddsmakers. Being on a 1-5 team that just lost to the previously winless Jaguars surely cannot help improve player morale.

Also, I like Atlanta’s offense more than Miami’s largely because top wide receiver and speedy playmaker Calvin Ridley is back. He's thankfully not dealing with any injury issues, as it was a personal matter that had kept him away.

Ridley’s speed is particularly useful against a Dolphin defense that loves to blitz under Brian Flores. When blitzers are putting pressure on the opposing quarterback, that QB will want to respond by quickly finding a pass-catcher. Ridley, with his speed, can gain separation from opposing defensive backs and enable Matt Ryan to find him.

Ryan has multiple other go-to options when the Dolphins blitz. One is tight end Kyle Pitts, an athletic target whose size makes him easier to find. The other is Cordarrelle Patterson out of the backfield. Pitts is coming off his highest reception total (9) of the season and Patterson regularly accrues at least five receptions per contest.

Atlanta’s offensive stats reflect its initial difficulty getting used to a new offense under new coaches.

But the team's recent 27-point output against New York reflects further success in adapting. Since low-quality performances in Weeks 1 and 2, Ryan has thrown eight touchdowns to zero interceptions in three games. Back the Falcons as short road favorites in this Week 7 matchup.

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Over 47.5 (-110)

Miami’s defense is not remotely the force that it was last year. In fact, the Dolphins rank 30th in total defense, and a slew of factors contribute to their overall regression. In sack rate, the Dolphins rank 20 spots worse than they did last year.

While they are pressuring and hitting the quarterback, particularly because they blitz, they aren’t finishing the job. Their blitzing and weaker secondary play, in general, make it easier for opposing pass-catchers to get open quickly.

The Dolphins’ weaker pass defense prevents them from getting off the field on third downs. Miami allows the second-most third-down conversions per game as opposing offenses drive downfield and wear down the Dolphin defense.

A well-stocked Falcons offense will be able to score a lot, particularly by making use of its weapons in the air.

With Tua Tagovailoa back at quarterback, the Dolphins can also do some scoring of their own against Atlanta’s defense, which improved to 13th after getting to face New York's offense but still leaves plenty to be desired. Tua and Ridley will make plays and help drive up the score in this Falcons and Dolphins Week 7 battle.

SEE ALSO: Panthers vs. Giants Week 7 Picks

Picks made on 10/21/2021 6:20 a.m. ET.