The Falcons have road games against the Eagles, Steelers, and Packers, in addition to playing in the tough NFC South. They’ll have to take care of business in the easier games.
Because of its non-divisional schedule, taking advantage of weaker opponents would be a good idea for the Falcons if they want to make the playoffs.
Below you will find the Falcons’ straight-up and against-the-spread records from last year’s NFL regular season, including average margin of victory, 2017 average odds, 2017 win totals and 2018 pre-scheduled figures, and projected strength of schedule using opponents’ combined record from 2017.
2017 SU Record: 10-6 (2.4 avg. margin)
2017 ATS Record: 7-9 (-1.3 avg. margin)
2017 Average Line: -3.7
2017 Win Total: 9.5 (-110)
2018 Win Total 5Dimes (pre-schedule): 9 (-140)
2018 Strength of Schedule: 13th, opponents were 130-126 (.509)
Three Games to Back ATS
@Packers, Week 14
Green Bay will go off chalk as long as quarterback Aaron Rodgers is healthy. Matt Ryan will be up for the challenge. The 2016 MVP is 5-4 SU and 8-1 ATS as a road underdog against NFC North teams. The Falcons cover a 4.5-point line by 5.9 per game. This includes four meetings in Green Bay, where Atlanta kept three final tallies within one score.
Bengals, Week 4; Giants, Week 7
Falcons coach Dan Quinn is a defensive guru. His units absolutely punish poor offenses. Atlanta yields 16.6 points per game to opposing teams posting fewer than 20.0 points per game the previous season, never gifting more than 23 in a contest. Atlanta is 8-3 SU, winning by 7.9 points per game in this spot. Bettors will likely see no more than a touchdown spread in early season home games against the Bengals and Giants, which owned the 25th (18.1 points per game) and 31st (15.4) worst scoring offenses in the league.
Three Games to Fade ATS
@Eagles, Week 1
Ryan is 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS as a road underdog of more than 4 points in his career prior to the midway point in the season (Week 9). The offense puts up a lowly 15.8 points per game. This is a tad more than what it scored in a 15-10 divisional round playoff loss at Philly the last time the team touched the field in January. Oddsmakers opened the Eagles 5.5-point favorites for the rematch, adjusting to -4 in early trading. Look for the number to rise closer to its initial offer when the public hammers the reigning Super Bowl champions near kickoff.
@Browns, Week 10; @Buccaneers, Week 17
Quinn has not done a good job preparing the Falcons for the second of back-to-back road games. Since taking over in 2014, they are 5-6 SU and 4-7 ATS in this spot, coming up 1.8 points shy of a 0.9 average line. The usual high-flying offense sputters for 20.1 points per game. In fact, all but two of the five victories have been by more than one score. Expect the public to overvalue the Birds in this same situation at Cleveland and in the regular-season finale at Tampa. Take the points with the home teams.
Trap Game Potential
@Redskins, Week 9
Quinn is just 4-4 SU and 2-6 ATS with more than a week to ready for an opponent. He has failed to cover the spread in all three outside of Atlanta. The Falcons travel to Washington following their bye.