Fading the Two Turkey Day Regulars with Two Small Road Favorites in 3-Legged Parlay

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, November 22, 2017 3:03 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 22, 2017 3:03 PM UTC

Let’s concoct a little recreational 3-legged Thanksgiving NFL Parlay for Thursday’s slate and pray to the Pilgrims that it actually makes to the third leg.

Parlay Leg 1—Minnesota Vikings Moneyline -150 at Detroit Lions

The first leg of this Turkey Day 3-teamer is an NFC North showdown between the Vikings and host Lions, the latter a traditional Thanksgiving Day team and this game is a repeat of the 2016 Thanksgiving Day opener between these two, but held at the then-brand new US Bank Stadium in Minneapolis and saw Matthew Stafford and Detroit upset Minnesota, 16-13, winning outright in The Land Of 10,000 Lakes as a 1½-point Road Favorites (42). The two big things here shaping the Point Spread—which actually opened up as a PICK ‘EM and has risen to (Minnesota minus) 3 everywhere Offshore on heavy Vikings action—are how well Everson Griffen and the Minnesota Defense has played this season (17.2 ppg, #4) and how surprising well backup-backup QB Case Keenum has played these L2 weeks getting the starts from Head Coach Mike Zimmer (30-19-1 ATS).

So why Minnesota on the Moneyline in Detroit? Obviously, the time to take the Vikings and lay the points has quickly come and gone, thanks to the Sharps backing the Vikings (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS) who looked very good in humbling a decent Redskins team in DC, 38-30 in Week 10, covering ATS in PK spot before cooling down Jared Goff and a very good Rams team last in Week 11 on Sunday in Minneapolis, 24-7, getting the money again as a 2-point Home chalk.

When these two met in Week 4 earlier this NFL Regular Season at Minnesota, Detroit pulled off the 14-7 upset, knocking off the hosts as 3-point Road Underdogs in a game which went well Under the Total (43½). Since that setback, the Vikings reeled off 5 straight SU Wins (4-1 ATS) while Ameer Abdullah and the Lions L3 straight SU and ATS after that date before W3 SU and going unbeaten and ATS their L3 (2-0-1 ATS) after a 27-24 win over Chicago at Soldier Field in Week 11 (DET -3, 40½). With Sam Bradford (Knee) out and on the Injured Reserve List and Teddy Bridgewater (Knee) possibly in the process of losing his starting job in Minnesota, we’ll have a Stafford-Keenum showdown in The Motor City to start Thanksgiving Day, so any thoughts of backing the Total (44½) Under—even with an incredibly strong 7-1 Under Trend the L8 series meetings—are too hard too process with Abdullah (491 Rushing yards) running well for Detroit (6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) and Golden Tate (691 Receiving yards, 3 TDs) and Marvin Jones Jr. (623 Receiving yards, 6 TDs) both in good rhythm with their QB Stafford (19 TD Passes) and Keenum helping Minnesota State University product Adam Thielen have a breakout season (62 Receptions, 916 Receiving yards, 3 TDs) with WR Stefon Diggs (15.2 ypc, 5 TDs), WR Jerick McKinnon (35 Receptions) and TE Kyle Rudolph (3 TDs) all thriving in a newfound Passing game.

The series Trends here show that in the early game on Thanksgiving Day, Favorites have gone a profitable 11-1 ATS the L12 with Road Turkey Day teams going 10-6 ATS the L16 and these two are both 12-12 ATS the L24 meetings in Detroit. In the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook 2017 NFL Games of the Year, the opening Point Spread for this game was the Lions minus 2½ points. Both teams may be a bit tired having to start 30 minutes earlier than a normal 1 pm ET kickoff. The simple thoughts here are 1—Revenge from last year on Thanksgiving and this year in Minneapolis, 2—Favorites are 11-1 ATS the L12 early Thanksgiving games and 3—If Minnesota can smoke the Rams like they did Sunday, then the rest of the NFC best beware.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Vikings 26 Lions 20Free NFL Pick: Vikings -153 Best Line Offered: at WagerWeb

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 Parlay Leg 2—Los Angeles Chargers -1 -108 at Dallas Cowboys

Philip Rivers and the upstart Chargers (4-6 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) head to Jerry World to face Dak Prescott and the Cowboys (5-5 SU/ATS) in Thanksgiving Day's second game and a number that looks pretty odd considering Los Angeles AFC’s SU Record and the Site. But the Cowboysare without suspended RB Ezekiel Elliott and have been missing LT Tyron Smith much and have looked lousy of late while the Chargers have played some pretty good Football these L4 weeks, beating Denver and Buffalo at Home and hanging with the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots and the upstart Jaguars both on the Road in tight Losses (LAC 3-1 ATS those 4). The Chargers are 5-1 ATS their L6 overall.

Reports out of Big D on Tuesday indicate that possibly three Dallas players will be back for this one, including the valuable LT Smith (Prescott has been sacked 12 times the L2 games) along with LB Anthony Hitchens (Groin) and K Dan Bailey (Groin) although hearty LB Sean Lee will miss the game. The Cowboys were absolutely humbled by Carson Wentz and the high-flying Eagles in Arlington in Week 11, 37-9. Bring out your dead.

These two don’t play that often but the series Trends show the Chargers—who moved from San Diego up to La La Land in the Offseason—are 3-2 SU and ATS against Jason Witten, Dez Bryant and America’s Team since 1992 . All 10 times the Cowboys have played this season, the Su result has matched the ATS result, and with the near-even Point Spreads we’re seeing Offshore two days out, logic says it will have to be 11-for-11, so if you can pick the winner of this game, you’re going to get the money too. Dallas looks worried to me, and even with Smith possibly back to protect Prescott, the current Desperation the Cowboys (at 5-5 with 6 Regular Season games to go) are experiencing seems much more scared than the confident Desperation the Chargers (4-6 SU) are playing at, with the Chiefs (6-4 SU) returning to Earth in the AFC West. Going Bolts in a game that gets that into the AFC Playoff picture.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Chargers 27 Cowboys 22Free NFL Pick: Chargers -1Best Line Offered: at WagerWeb

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 Parlay Leg 3—New York Giants at Washington Redskins -7

The fading Giants (2-8, SU, 4-6 ATS) head to the nation’s capital and nearby Landover, Maryland to face the Redskins (4-6 SU/ATS) in a game the visitors need more than the hosts to stay in the Playoff race as the Regular Season starts to tick down. The spread here shows how much the G-Men have faded and how much faith the linemakers have in Washington which almost always seems to be in the same position, no matter what week of what season—they have to seemingly always win that next game. And sadly for the Skins, the one season the Giants and Cowboys both seem to be struggling and already out of it, the fricking Eagles (9-1 SU, W8 straight) come up and grab the world by the onions. Hey, it ain’t easy being Kirk Cousins, Bubba.

The Trends here in the NFC East series show the Giants (162 PS-247 PA) are 30-20 ATS since 1992 and 6-2 the L8 overall against the Redskins (238 PS-266 PA) and both are 2-2 SU/ATS the L4 meetings and with New York NFC playing a pretty decent game in upsetting Kansas City at Home in Week 11, this one could end up being a good game with the Giants (1-4 SU Road) already adopting a wait until next year attitude and having nothing her to lose against their divisional rivals and being able to our all their Turkey Day gravy on the cold field. And if both Dallas and Washington lose, then the NFC East will be a done deal for Philadelphia with probably no Wild Card team likely being able to come out of the NFC East, even in a season when the Seahawks (6-4 SU) have laid a less-than-golden egg in the NFC West.

This one’s honestly a tough call, and could be a disaster game for Cousins and Washington who have played better on the Road than at Home lately, but if laying the points, best to shop for that 7 and not lay the 7½ with much late General Public money likely going on the chalky Favorites (Redskins Consensus 61% Tuesday). Washington will never be trusted again if it can’t win by 8 points here and ruins this 3-legged holiday Parlay. If so, then Yams may be thrown and foul language will be used. And no one in their right mind wants to be cleaning up thrown Yams and Marshmallows on Black Friday Eve. Embrace those leftovers folks. Buena suerte.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Redskins 31 Giants 22Free NFL Pick: Redskins -7 -116Best Line Offered: at WagerWeb

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NFL THANKSGIVING DAY 3-TEAM PARLAY PICKS: Vikings Moneyline -150/Chargers -1 -105/Redskins -7 -116 (WagerWeb)
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