Fade the Public & the Jets vs. Dolphins Week 4 With Your NFL Picks

Steven Suarez

Wednesday, September 30, 2015 12:34 PM GMT

Fresh off a humiliating home loss to Buffalo, the Dolphins will try to regain some pride when they take on the Jets in London. What's the right play with our NFL picks?

Odds Overview
Depending on where you look, the Jets are favored by either 2 or 3 points at most of the sportsbooks, and we wouldn't be surprised to see that number move even more throughout the week. 

Points are likely to come at a premium in this Week 4 divisional battle, with the O/U currently trading at 41.5 points, one of the lowest numbers on the NFL odds board for the weekend.

 

New York Jets
The Jets couldn't have played much better through the first two weeks of the season. They crushed Cleveland 31-10 in Week 1 and then followed that up with a hugely impressive 20-7 road win over Indianapolis in Week 2, on Monday Night Football no less.

Things came to a crashing halt last weekend, however, as New York lost its first game of the season. The Jets lost 24-17 at home to the Eagles, as they were unable to erase the early hole they put themselves in. After being down 24-7, New York was able to outscore Philadelphia 10-0 in the fourth quarter, but it was too little too late. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 283 yards and two touchdowns but also threw three picks, while the run game was stuffed for 47 yards on 16 carries. Brandon Marshall was the clear number one target for Fitzpatrick, hauling in 10 receptions for 109 yards and a score.

Starting running back Chris Ivory didn't play in Week 3 and his status hasn't been determined for this coming weekend. The Jets are also without Eric Decker, which means we should be seeing a lot of Marshall once again. New York will hope to bounce back defensively as well.

 

Miami Dolphins
Ugly. That's the only way to describe Miami's performance last week at home against Buffalo.

The Dolphins opened with a road win over Washington in Week 1, but then took two steps back in a Week 2 loss to the Jaguars. Then, in Week 3, they got absolutely dominated in a 41-14 blowout loss at home versus the Bills. Miami's defensive showing was atrocious, as they let Tyrod Taylor and company walk all over them from start to finish. The Dolphins coughed up 277 passing yards and 151 rushing yards, and then weren't able to get much going offensively either. Some garbage time points in the second half was hardly a nice consolation for a team that was favored in the NFL odds coming in.

So, where does Miami go from here? The Dolphins will have a nice long plane trip to think about what went wrong, and you'd have to think they'll fare better than they did against Buffalo. 

 

Betting Analysis
We expect a good chunk of the public to back the Jets in this spot. After all, they'll be facing a Dolphins team that was crushed in all facets last week.

However, we have a feeling Miami will bounce back in Week 4. The Dolphins are a lot more talented than what their results may show; they've got more offensive weapons than the Jets, particularly since Chris Ivory is banged up and Eric Decker is out, and Miami's defense isn't a weak unit either, regardless of last week's meltdown.

We look for the Dolphins to be very competitive here on Sunday. It's always tricky on a neutral field, but like Miami's chances of redeeming themselves; things can only go up following Week 3's dud, and we're on the lookout for Tannehill and company to get back to .500 with a victory. Therefore, we'll gladly take the three points wherever available with our NFL pick for sunday morning.

NFL Pick: Miami Dolphins +3 at Bovada