Fade NFL Odds Makers & Take Packers & the Plus Points Against Saints

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, September 1, 2015 4:12 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 1, 2015 4:12 PM UTC

The Saints look for their 1st. win of the preseason when they descend on Green Bay this Thursday. Can the Saints pull it out at Lambeau? Find out as we preview this game & serve up NFL picks.

New Orleans Saints Favored?
Saints are trading as the 1.5-point road favorites across several sports betting platforms, up from an opening PK line.

One word: Huh? How is it that the winless New Orleans Saints are favored in week 4 NFL preseason betting? They are 0-3 SU and ATS in three accounts and looking more likely to slip up in the final lap.

Their account so far has been downright miserable and Sean Payton wasn’t best pleased by his team’s account in a 27-13 loss to the Texans at home; a game in which they closed as the significant 3.5-point home chalk, up from an opening 3-point line on the NFL odds board.

The Saints made key wholesale changes to their team in the offseason. Through three rounds it’s glaringly obvious that they’re not quite in sync yet. The most recent loss was plagued by needless penalties and foolish plays, calling into question the so-called improved defense. Mainly, it fell short of expectations, prompting many NFL bettors to reflect on what improvements from last season have been really made.

Week 4 of preseason NFL betting provides the last opportunity for the players to get it together on the field, but given the question marks it remains to be seen how they’ll account at Lambeau where the sheer scale of taking on Clay Matthews and the Packers defense is intimidating, even in a meaningless preseason game.


Green Bay Home Underdogs?
The general consensus is that the Green Bay Packers aren’t going to risk too much in this final game of the preseason after seeing Jordy Nelson and then Randall Cobb succumb to injuries. While the former is out for the entire season the latter wasn’t ruled out, which is promising news.

Key losses those might be (whether permanent or temporary in the context of the 2015-2016 season), to suggest as a result of fear of more injuries that the Packers aren’t going to be competitive in week 4 and, by extension, merit a tender of +1.5-points at home on the NFL odds board is a bit much.

This is a veteran team with some real depth and quality and more in sync than the Saints are right now. Surely, that’s something to take stock of in this game.

The Packers are coming off a 39-26 loss to the Eagles at home, which could be a reason for the disadvantage going into week 4. That said it was a game that saw Aaron Rodgers watch proceedings from the side lines. Not to take anything away from the Eagles: they’ve been piling up the points like nobody’s business as Chip Kelly gives his revamped roster even playing time in order to get everybody on the same page, ready for the regular season and comfortable in his scheme of things. But a Packers side without Rodgers isn’t the same. Nevertheless, they managed to put up 26 points against an Eagles defense that has been rather stingy in the preseason.

NFL Betting Verdict
It simply doesn’t go down well with us that the Packers are the home underdogs to the Saints. It beggar’s belied. The Packers have been much better than the Saints in the preseason on both sides of the ball. With the Saints still figuring things out, we’re taking the Packers plus the points.

NFL Picks: Packers +1.5

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