Fade Broncos With Your Week 13 NFL Picks vs. Chargers (+4.5)

Jason Lake

Wednesday, December 2, 2015 9:06 PM GMT

The Denver Broncos are a hot NFL pick for Sunday's game against the San Diego Chargers. Can Brock Osweiler avoid the betting trends and lead Denver to paydirt?

Jason's 2015 record as of Dec. 2: 45-41-2 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 25-31 Total

Brock Osweiler, ladies and gentlemen. There's been a lot of talk about Osweiler since he led the Denver Broncos to that big 30-24 upset over the New England Patriots (–2.5 away) on Sunday Night Football. It looks like he'll be Denver's starting quarterback going forward, even if Peyton Manning (foot) returns to health. Impressive. Brock Osweiler, better than Tom Brady, better than Peyton Manning.

The way the market is reacting, you'd think they were selling sub-prime mortgages on quarterbacks. Denver is pulling in 67 percent of bettors and 76 percent of the action for Sunday's matchup (4:05 p.m. ET, CBS) with the San Diego Chargers, who are still getting four points at home on our NFL odds board at press time. We're not buying here at the home office. The betting trends compel us.

 

Falling at Your Feet
It isn't just the trends. While everyone's been busy loading up on Osweiler stock, Broncos safety T.J. Ward has been walking around on crutches. Ward suffered what appears to be a high-ankle sprain during the first quarter against the Patriots; in addition to the crutches, Ward was hobbling around the Broncos facility on Tuesday with a walking boot.

So was Denver DT Sylvester Williams. How's this for creepy: Williams suffered the same injury as Ward, on the very same play – although it was the right ankle for Williams. Both are listed as day-to-day, but it's highly unlikely either will face the Chargers on Sunday. The Broncos have re-signed safety Josh Bush as a stop-gap measure; Bush was with the team earlier this year before getting waived on Oct. 1.

 

Riggin' for Wiggins
The Williams situation could prove to be more valuable for the Chargers. They've been plagued all year by injuries on the offensive line, but there's been some improvement lately with the emergence of Chris Hairston and Kenny Wiggins. They've played multiple positions this year and done a competent job protecting QB Philip Rivers (26 sacks). Orlando Franklin has played the last two games since coming off the injured list, and D.J. Fluker (concussion) could return this week.

This unit did well enough to help the Chargers upset the Jacksonville Jaguars (–5 at home) 31-25 last Sunday. Rivers was sacked just twice, San Diego went turnover-free, and rookie RB Melvin Gordon had one of his better days with 60 yards on 14 carries. Getting to the second level against the Broncos will be easier without Williams clogging up the middle, and the weather conditions in San Diego should be a lot more favorable to the Chargers than they were for the Patriots last week at Mile High. Put the Bolts in our Week 13 NFL picks, thank you kindly, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

NFL Pick: Take the Chargers +4.5 (–115) at WagerWeb

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