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Top Expert NFL Prop Picks for Divisional Round: Can Chiefs and Bills Put on Show?

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Top Expert NFL Prop Picks for Divisional Round: Can Chiefs and Bills Put on Show?
Zack Moss of the Buffalo Bills runs the ball during the first half of a game against the Kansas City Chiefs. Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images via AFP.

Our football experts make their best Divisional Round NFL player and team prop picks.

There’s plenty of value to be found throughout the prop board as we head into the Divisional Round. Our experts target some of the many playoff specials offered by the top sportsbooks this week.

Here’s a look at the top team and player NFL prop picks for the Divisional Round from SportsBookReview’s betting experts (pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

NFL Team Prop Picks

SEE ALSO: NFL Divisional Round Picks Roundup

NFL Player Prop Picks

SEE ALSO: Divisional Round Odds, Lines, and Picks

Top NFL Divisional Round Team Prop Picks

Buccaneers team total Under 25.5 (-115 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 5-0 straight up in their five playoff games in the Tom Brady era, and they scored 30 or more points in all of those wins. In addition, the Buccaneers enter this game having scored 33 points per game during a four-game win streak.

However, we still like the Los Angeles Rams defense to play well in this matchup. Los Angeles held Tampa Bay to 24 points in Week 3 despite the Buccaneers having a healthy running back combination of Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones, and wide receiver Chris Godwin on the perimeter. Since then, the Rams have added linebacker Von Miller, who brings an added dimension to their pass rush.

Look for Los Angeles' front to take advantage of a banged-up Tampa Bay offensive line, with center Ryan Jensen (ankle) and tackle Tristan Wirfs (ankle) not 100%. - Spector

Chiefs, Bills, Packers combine to score 11-plus touchdowns (+110 via FanDuel Sportsbook)

These teams boast three of the league's most menacing offenses. The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs averaged 28.4 and 28.2 points per game, respectively, while the Green Bay Packers didn’t trail far behind at 26.5 PPG.

More importantly for this prop, each team frequently visits the end zone. The Chiefs and Bills tied for fourth leaguewide with 57 touchdowns, and the Packers had 54. The three teams combined to average 9.9 touchdowns per week, which is just a hair below the mark needed here.

The Bills are coming off posting seven touchdowns against the New England Patriots and their second-ranked scoring defense last week, while the Chiefs just roasted the Pittsburgh Steelers with six TDs. Covering the remaining distance to cash this prop shouldn’t be a significant hurdle. - Tomlinson

49ers first-half spread +3.5 (-110 via DraftKings)

The gap in first-half scoring offense between the San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers is slim to none. Green Bay averaged 13.1 points per game in the first 30 minutes while San Francisco averaged 12.4. While the Packers were a better first-half team at home than on the road, the opposite was actually true for the 49ers. 

On the other side of the ball, the Niners were a much better first-half defense than Green Bay this season. San Francisco allowed only 10.1 points to opponents in the first 30 minutes of games and an even lower 9.0 when playing on the road. The Packers surrendered over 12 first-half points on the season with a negligible improvement on that average when playing at home. 

While Lambeau Field will certainly be rocking on Saturday night, the 49ers come into this game with tons of momentum. Not only does the defense figure to be sharper early on in the game, but a run-heavy offensive game plan could ultimately shorten the first half in general. San Francisco is more than capable of staying within a field goal over the first 30 minutes. - John

Highest-scoring team: Bengals (+1200 via DraftKings)

The Cincinnati Bengals offense rolled this season under QB Joe Burrow's leadership. Three wide receivers accumulated more than 800 yards during the season. Even with their explosive passing attack, it's not like the offense was lacking a running game. Running back Joe Mixon racked up over 1,200 yards and 13 touchdowns on the ground. With an average of 27.1 points per game, the Bengals were seventh in the NFL.

A Tennessee Titans defense that hasn't faced much elite quarterback competition since Week 9 is getting a lot of respect. In this timeframe, the Titans have faced Trevor Siemian, Tyrod Taylor, Mac Jones, Trevor Lawrence, Ben Roethlisberger, Jimmy Garoppolo, Tua Tagovailoa, and Davis Mills.

My favorite aspect of the Bengals is their spurt ability. This season, they scored more than 40 points three times. Would it surprise you if Burrow came out on Saturday and started slinging it around? The Titans are vulnerable to the passing game and Burrow has elite weapons in Tee Higgins, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tyler Boyd.

DraftKings has the best odds on the Bengals, where they are +1200. At FanDuel Sportsbook, they are as short as +950 to win this prop. - Metler

Top NFL Divisional Round Player Prop Picks

Lazard anytime touchdown (+175 via DraftKings)

Much of San Francisco’s defensive attention will be paid to Davante Adams, and deservedly so as one of the best receivers in the game. However, Lazard has quietly been a touchdown monster, finishing with eight touchdowns to Adams’ 11 despite playing one less game and seeing 109 fewer targets.

In addition, Lazard has come on strong of late, scoring five touchdowns in the last five games, with at least one score in four of those five contests. Lazard is one of Rodgers’ favorite red-zone targets, and with Green Bay’s projected team total at 26.5 points, Lazard is a good bet to be responsible for at least six of those. - Spector

Adams, Kittle combine for 200-plus receiving yards (+200 via FanDuel)

The risk lies in Kittle here, which doesn’t happen often with the three-time Pro Bowler. Kittle finished fourth among tight ends with 910 receiving yards in 2021, racking up his third 900-plus yard season despite appearing in only 14 games. However, the 49ers' offensive focus has turned to the ground recently, resulting in Kittle being used more as a blocker. He recorded just 78 yards over his last four games.

However, Adams can do the heavy lifting after averaging 97.1 receiving yards per game during the season. His three 110-plus yard outings over the final five weeks boosted that average. One of those games was against the Chicago Bears, who ranked third against the pass. The 49ers rank sixth.

Trusting Adams to maintain that production as Rodgers' trusted deep threat who gets 9.9 targets per game feels comfortable. And Kittle could get an opportunity too while facing a Packers defense that ranks 16th against tight ends after allowing 871 receiving yards to the position this season. - Tomlinson

Tannehill Under 237.5 passing yards (-115 via DraftKings)

The Titans are set to welcome back their best offensive weapons in running back Derrick Henry for Saturday’s playoff game against the Bengals. Despite his absence, to say that the Titans completely changed their offensive identity is simply foolish.

By no means did Tennessee resort to having Tannehill sling the ball all over the place The backfield duties simply went from being shouldered by one man to being distributed across a committee. Even if Henry has a slightly reduced workload in his first game back, the Titans know that they can pivot to Dontrell Hilliard to spell their superstar.

From the time Henry went on injured reserve following the Titans' Week 8 game through the end of the regular season, Tannehill surpassed 237 passing yards only twice in nine games played. Both of those performances came against the Houston Texans. Now that Henry is back, are we really supposed to anticipate Tannehill having a higher yardage total?

Tannehill has totaled only 594 yards passing in four career postseason starts, all with the Titans. That averages out to 133.5 yards per game, over 100 fewer than the prop total for this Divisional Round matchup.

Tennessee has two superstar names playing wide receiver in A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. However, it is clear at this point that the Titans are not willing to deviate from their offensive identity. The last place one should expect that to change is in the postseason. - John

Higgins anytime TD (+210 via PointsBet)

Higgins finished the regular season with 1,091 yards and six touchdowns. He finished second on the team in red-zone targets with 13, just behind Chase, who led with 15. Higgins played three fewer games than Chase.

Since Week 10, the Titans have allowed eight passing touchdowns, all to wide receivers. Due to the extra attention being given to Chase, I would much rather have Higgins at +210 than Chase at +130. Over their last five games, Higgins has been a much more potent red-zone threat. Higgins has three targets and two touchdowns inside the 10-yard line. Chase has zero targets inside the 10.

The longest price on Higgins is at PointsBet where he is +210. Caesars Sportsbook has him as short as +130. - Metler

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