Top Expert Betting Picks for NFL Week 9
Check out our NFL Week 9 expert picks for the best against the spread and Over/Under bets.
We have another 14-game slate in Week 9, as we head into the second half of the first 17-game NFL regular season. One of those marquee matchups, between the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs, was dealt a serious blow this week with Packers QB Aaron Rodgers placed in the league's COVID-19 protocols. However, his absence, and QB Jordan Love's first NFL start, have created an entirely new betting opportunity.
Here’s a look at the top against the spread and Over/Under picks for the NFL's Week 9 schedule from our team of betting experts (all odds via DraftKings):
Matt Jordan: Chargers -2 (-110); Packers at Chiefs Under 48 (-110)Kenny Ducey: Packers +7.5 (-115); Browns at Bengals Over 47 (-110)Ian Wharton: Chargers -2 (-110); Browns at Bengals Under 47 (-115)
SEE ALSO: Top Expert NFL Prop Picks
Top Expert Spread Picks
Chargers -2 (-110) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Los Angeles catches a nice break here in that the game isn’t a 10 a.m. Pacific Time kickoff but 1:05 p.m. PT/4:05 p.m. ET. This spread also has fallen from -3 on Monday. Presumably, it’s because Chargers QB Justin Herbert was listed as limited in practice Wednesday due to a hand injury; however, the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year was upgraded to full at Thursday's practice.
I believe oddsmakers are overreacting to a bit of recency bias. The Chargers haven’t looked great in back-to-back games because Herbert hasn’t looked great with three picks and a completion percentage of 54.05 in those games. Meanwhile, the Eagles beat the Detroit Lions 44-6 on the road last week.
Prior to that, Philly had dropped five of six games while allowing 29.8 points per game. Philly had also allowed the fourth-most rushing yards in the NFL through seven games (133 yards per game). Herbert should get well against an Eagles secondary that has one good cornerback in Darius Slay and nothing else. QBs have a combined rating of 101.4 against the Eagles this year. Offensively, the Eagles remain without No. 1 RB Miles Sanders and may be without starting WR Jalen Reagor.
Philly is 0-3 at home this season (1-2 ATS) and 0-3 vs. teams with a winning record. The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. - Jordan
Packers +7.5 (-115) vs. Chiefs
The Chiefs are a special kind of bad. They rank 30th in DVOA against the pass and 29th in DVOA against the run. This is the main reason they've been worth a fade this season because they haven't been able to stop anyone.
What we saw against the New York Giants last week was a disaster from an *offensive* point of view. QB Patrick Mahomes was spotted so many opportunities to break that game open, and he was unable to. He not only leads the league in interceptions but seems to have a tough time moving the ball down the field now.
Kansas City has been awful against the spread for a couple of years now, so even without Rodgers on the other side, I'm still willing to take Green Bay. Love can't possibly be this bad, and this Packers defense has quietly been alright of late. - Ducey
Chargers -2 (-110) vs. Eagles
The Chargers have been struggling over the last three weeks as Herbert and the passing game have slowed down. The good news is they're facing a Philadelphia team that isn't overly good, and is not well-coached. Los Angeles may have to travel across the country but is clearly a better team and has the motivation to get on track.
The Eagles offense will struggle against the versatile Chargers defense and Jalen Hurts still needs to prove he's a winning, difference-making quarterback. I expect the Chargers to win comfortably, so getting 2 points is an automatic play. - Wharton
Top Expert Over/Under Picks
Packers vs. Chiefs Under 48 (-110)
FOX really got hosed in regards to this one-time marquee matchup between former NFL MVPs Rodgers and Mahomes. It was to be their first meeting – two years ago when the Packers won in KC, Mahomes was out injured – but that’s not to be as Rodgers is out. The Rodgers news dropped the total from 54 points to 48 with Love set to get his first NFL start.
With Love making his first start, expect Green Bay to run, run and run some more on Sunday with RBs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon to keep the clock running and Mahomes off the field. The Chiefs are misfiring as it is with just 23 points in the last two games, and Mahomes throwing at least one pick in seven straight games for a league-high 10 interceptions on the season. The Chiefs also are on a short week.
The Under is 5-0 in the Packers’ last five games (and that was with Rodgers) and 8-3 in Kansas City’s last 11 Sunday games following a Monday contest. - Jordan
Browns at Bengals over 47 (-110)
The Bengals demonstrated their defense isn't as good as advertised in a disappointing loss to the Jets last week, and things should keep spiraling against a highly motivated Browns team.
Free of Odell Beckham Jr., the Browns will likely return to pounding the ball on the ground with Nick Chubb back against a Cincinnati club that Michael Carter gashed in Week 8 for 172 total yards. On the other side of the ball, the Browns have fielded one of the league's worst secondaries, and they'll face a rising offense that loves to throw. This should be a big-time Over. - Ducey
Browns vs. Bengals Under 47 (-115)
The Browns continue to disappoint offensively. Now without WR Odell Beckham Jr., and with a bevy of injuries that have usurped their upside, it's time to bet against Cleveland's once-promising talent pool. The Bengals have plenty of offensive firepower to put up points against an inconsistent defense but not enough to clear the total themselves.
This line is set based on Cincinnati's massive offensive explosions lately, and the fact they allowed 34 points to the New York Jets. However, this is a rivalry game, so expect a lower-scoring affair where the home team wins. - Wharton
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