Expert Final Thoughts - Philadelphia Eagles vs Chicago Bears

Chicago Bears  team in action

Kevin Stott

Monday, September 19, 2016 2:36 PM UTC

Monday, Sep. 19, 2016 2:36 PM UTC

Carson Wentz and Eagles hope to build on their positive week 1 experience as they head to Chicago to face Jay Cutler and Bears on Monday Night Football. Let’s examine the game from Monday Night Football Predictions.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Chicago Bears 
The mercurial Jay Cutler and the Chicago Bears (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS, 14 PS-23 PA) welcome Rookie QB Carson Wentz and the Philadelphia Eagles (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS, 29 PS-10 PA) to Soldier Field (Fair, S Winds 3-8 mph, Game Temp 73°, Relative Humidity 57%) on Monday night for the NFL Regular Season Week 2 finale and the second installment of Monday Night Football. Current Odds (Thursday afternoon) at Offshore sportsbooks have the host Bears as solid -3 to 3½-point favorites with the Total (Points) in this game from the Windy City and the shores of Lake Michigan ranging from 41½ —you can shop for this lines at a variety of sportsbooks also offering to sign up bonuses—all the way up to 43 so if you want to try to create a Middle with 42 if you have the access allow that’s a tiny, 1-spot window.

In the oft-overlooked NFL betting odds, Da Bears are priced at -159 at Matchbook with the visiting Eagles lined at +156 on the takeback. The Chicago Bears Total Team Points is at 22½ (-110, Ladbrokes) while the Philadelphia Eagles Total Team Points is at 19½ (-110 Ladbrokes) while the 1st Half Odds see the Bears -2 priced at -111 with the Eagles +2 lined at -111 (Marathon) with the 1st Half Total is 21½ (William Hill). The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook Advanced Line for Week 2 had the Bears open up as 3-point, 120 favorites for this contest with the 2016/17 NFL Games of the Year number also opening at -3 back in May but with the normal -110 vigorish.


Philadelphia Eagles vs. Chicago Bears Series Last 10 Final Scores, ATS and Totals Results
2013—@ Eagles 54 Bears 11 (PHI -3) — Total Points Scored: 65 (Over, 53)
2011—Bears 30 @ PHI 24 (PHI -7½) — Total Points Scored: 54 (Over, 47½)
2010—@ Bears 31 Eagles 26 (PHI -3) — Total Points Scored: 57 (Over, 42½)
2009—Eagles 24 @ Bears 20 (PHI -3½) — Total Points Scored: 44 (Under, 47)
2008—@ Bears 24 Eagles 20 (PHI -3) — Total Points Scored: 44 (Over, 39½)
2007—Bears 19 @ Eagles 16 (PHI -5½) — Total Points Scored: 35 (Under, 42)
2004—@ Bears 19 Eagles 9 (PHI -9) — Total Points Scored: 28 (Under, 39½)
2002—Bears 19 Eagles 13 (PHI -7) — Total Points Scored: 32 (Under, 38½) (Memorial Stadium, Champaign, IL)
2002—@ Bears 33 Eagles 19 (CHI -3) — Total Points Scored: 52 (Over, 31½)—2001/02 NFC Divisional Playoffs
2000—@ Eagles 13 Bears 9 (PHI -6½) — Total Points Scored: 22 (Under, 41) (Veterans Stadium, Philadelphia)
>The Eagles have been favored the L8 meetings in this NFC series with the Over having W3 straight.


Lowest Total in Offshore Market: 41½ (at Heritage, at WagerWeb)
Consensus Total in Offshore Market: 42½
Highest Total: 43 (at 5Dimes, at Sportbet, at YouWager)


Totals Trends, Thoughts
The number here—which opened at 42½ at Offshore sportsbook 5Dimes on Sunday night (11:19 p.m. EDT)—was bet up to 43 on Wednesday—and now back down to and through 42½ (11:11 a.m. EDT) two minutes later here on Thursday to its current 42 (11:13 a.m. EDT), no doubt Sharp (or professional gamblers) money on the Under. The Bears have stayed at -3 (-110) to -3 (-120) chalks—just like the aforementioned -3’s in the Advanced Line and the 2016/17 NFL Games of the Year numbers, showing perception on this game hasn’t changed much from the spring up until the last Monday in the Summer in which it will be played. So Bradford or not, it says much about what the oddsmakers think about the Bears who actually have a number of nice skill Position weapons on Offense right now for QB Cutler (24-46 ATS at Home), who as you can see has been abysmal ATS at Home in his career (34.3%).

If you like the Over shop around now for a 41½ and with the L3 going Over the Total in this series in games averaging 58.7 ppg, it’s easy to like the Total Over here as both Philadelphia and Chicago both like putting the football in the air.


Why Take the Chicago Bears on the Money Line in this Monday Night Game? (In List Form)
Chicago (100/1 to win Super Bowl, Bovada), 2nd-year Head Coach John Fox and Cutler are worth a bet on the Money Line (+155, Marathon) on Monday Night Football in NFL Week 2 for a bunch of seemingly simple reasons in the glorious Midwestern city that gave us Deep Dish Pizza. Here’s why...

1—Chicago and renowned 2nd-year Head Coach John Fox (8-9 ATS) doesn’t want to start the Regular Season off 0-2. An 0-3 in the NFC with the likes of the Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings—who meet in Minneapolis in Week 2 on Sunday Night Football (GB -2½, 42½, 5Dimes)—and the vastly underrated Detroit Lions who will be no fun for anyone to play this season.

2—This is the Bears first Regular Season game at Home this 2016/17 NFL Regular Season. And Site and Situation—Monday Night Football—matter and when you’re playing the only game of the day and you know everyone in the world is watching, you don’t want to disappoint. And Alshon Jeffery and the Bears certainly don’t want to let down the paying customers at historic Soldier Field on Lake Shore Dive either. Not against this foe.

3—Chicago is coming off an aggravating Loss in Week 1 to the upstart Texans at NRG Stadium in Houston. So they mad. The Bears will be itching to score TDs here with WRs Kevin White and return man Deonte Thompson two players to watch here.

4—The Eagles are the Eagles. And Carson Wentz is still Carson Wentz, despite the top-selling national football jersey. He faced the Browns, folks. This could be a blowout if everything goes wrong for the Eagles Offense, making it too hard for the D to keep the Eagles in the game.

5—The Bears Offensive Skill Position players are as good as they have been in quite some time. Besides Cutler, Chicago has 2nd-year Jeremy Langford (17 rushes, 57 yards, TD in Week 1), RB Ka’Deem Carey, Indian Rookie RB Jordan Howard and New Zealander FB Paul Lasike in the backfield, and expect some nice production from Langford. And despite losing beloved TE Martellus Bennett (New England Patriots) in the Offseason to Free Agency, the Bears will plug in TE Zach Miller with Greg Scruggs No. 2 on the Depth Chart with starting WRs Jeffrey and West Virginia-product Kevin White—who sat out the entire 2015 season with an Injury—and able, speedy backups in Eddie Royal, Deonte Thompson, Joshua Bellamy and Cameron Meredith.

6—The Bears Defense is improving. Chicago allowed 30 PA in 2013, 28 in 2014 and then just 25 ppg last season in 2015, so Defensive Coordinator Vic Fangio, ILB Jerrell Freeman (17 tackles vs. Texans) and the talented Danny Trevathan (11 tackles) have that side of the ball getting closer to the glory years and what was once a real strength of this franchise, with the 1985 Buddy Ryan model being the peak year. The Bears were -4 in TO Differential last season and need to get in the + in that key stat which says so much about the mental makeup of teams.

7—Chicago wins this game when it’s played in the state of Illinois—home of MLB’s Chicago Cubs—going 5-1 SU in the L6, winning 5 at Soldier Field and one at Memorial Stadium in Champaign, home of the University of Illinois Fighting Illini.\


Monday Night Football Trends, How This Game In Chicago Could End Up Playing Out
The Monday Night Football Trends here heading into NFL Week 2 shows that the host Bears (3-8-1 ATS L12 as Home Favorite) are pretty poor against the Point Spread (4-11 ATS as Home Favorite, 2-6 ATS L8 off SU-ATS Loss vs Non-Division Opponent) while Philadelphia is just 2-4 ATS as a but a sparkly 12-6 ATS as Road Underdog on MNF and 11-2 ATS the L13 off a DD SU-ATS Win. And with the Eagles Defense being better than most people realize, this could be a tough fight for the host Bears and they may need the Crowd Support, the Luck and the Breaks and even just a small +1 TO edge here at Home to find a way to get the win. The Bears won’t care about covering and with Wentz (22/37, 278 yards, 2 TDs) still an enigma and the Eagles having very talented weapons of their own in RB Ryan Matthews (22 rushes , 77 yards TD vs. Browns), WR Jordan Mattews (7 receptions, 114 yards, TD), WR Nelson Agholor (4 receptions, 57 yards, TD) and that magical man, Darren Sproles, although TE Zach Ertz (6 receptions, 58 yards) is listed as Doubtful here. But with those five, Wentz developing and a sound Defense, the Eagles and 1st-year Head Coach Doug Pederson (1-0 ATS) are better than many thinks but like always, but could likely be their own worst enemy once again.

The Trends are a mixed bag here with the Eagles 4-1 ATS in their L5 Monday Night Football games but Philly is just 5-12-1 ATS its L18 in September, 1-6 ATS their L7 in Week 2 and the Eagles are 4-10 ATS their L14 games on Grass (Soldier Field). And the Bears have been somewhat miserable ATS, making taking them Against The Spread an impossibility in this spot: Chicago is 0-5 in their L5 September games, 1-5 ATS in their L6 overall, 1-4 ATS their L5 on Grass and 1-4 ATS in both their L5 Week 2 games as well as against the NFC. Weaksauce, Monsters of the Midway. And the Bears are also a pathetic 6-19-1 ATS their L26 Home contests (24%) but 4-1 ATS their L5 Monday games. One big thing to remember when handicapping this game is that the Eagles are coming off a Home game against the Cleveland Browns while the Bears are coming off a Road game against JJ Watt and the Texans down Houston. And one of these AFC North teams is a much better NFL warm up band. The Soldier Field Site with the expecting Bears throng should rule here in a potential NFL Week 2 nail-biter.


Predicted Final Score: Bears 24 Eagles 23
NFL Regular Season Week 2 MNF Pick: Bears -159 at Matchbook
2016 NFL Picks Season ATS Record: 19-8-0
NFL Regular Season ATS Record: 11-3-0

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