Expert Final Thoughts On Week 2 Thursday Night Football: Jets vs. Bills

Kevin Stott

Thursday, September 15, 2016 2:10 PM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 15, 2016 2:10 PM UTC

The Jets and Bills kick off week 2 of NFL action, and our handicapper takes a detailed look into the trends and provides an educated free pick. Read on and get the scoop.

With Back-to-Back 22-17 Scores, Jets-Bills Under 42 (at 5Dimes) the Call on Thursday Night Football
Both meetings between AFC East rivals the Buffalo Bills and the New York Jets ended with 22-17 Bills Wins last NFL Regular Season, and with three straight unders despite a larger recent Trend of Overs in the series—spurred by the meetings at MetLife Stadium—it seems backing the Total may be the safest route here. So, it’s back into The Lab again after a robust 11-3 weekend of NFL picks here at Sportsbook Review with a Totals pick for your consideration in what could end up being a fairly boring professional football game.


Odds Overview
New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills: Ryan Fitzpatrick and the New York Jets (0-1 SU, 1-0 ATS, 22 PS-23 PA) head upstate to Ralph Wilson Stadium in Buffalo to face Tyrod Taylor and the Bills for the NFL Week 2 lid-lifter and the first installment of Thursday Night Football for CBS after NBC’s Week 1 premiere last week. Current Odds (Tuesday afternoon) at Offshore sportsbooks have the visiting Jets favored as slight 1-point favorites with the Total (Points) in this game ranging from 40 to 40½ on the NFL odds board.

In the Moneyline marketplace, the Jets are priced at -113 with the host Bills lined at +103 on the takeback. The Buffalo Bills Total Team Points is at 21 while the New York Jets Total Team Points is at 20 while the First Half Odds here see the Jets -½ priced at +108 with the Bills +½ lined at -128 with the 1st Half Total at 20 Over -112. Heading into Week 2, the Bills Regular Season Win Total now sits at 8 at 5Dimes (Under -147, Over +127) while the Jets Regular Season Team Win Total is currently at 8 (Under -170, Over +150).


New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills Lifetime Series Last 12 Final Scores, Totals Results

2015—Bills 22 @ Jets 17 — Total: 41 — Result: Under

2015—@ Bills 22 Jets 17 — Total: 41½ —Result: Under

2014—Bills 38 Jets 3 — Total: 42½ — Result: Under (@ Ford Field, Detroit)

2014—Bills 42 @ Jets 23 — Total: 40 — Result: Over

2013—@ Bills 37 Jets 14 — Total: 39 — Result: Over

2013—@ Jets 20 Bills 27 — Total: 40½ — Result: Over

2012—@ Bills 28 Jets 9 — Total: 40½ — Result: Under

2012—@ Jets 48 Bills 28 — Total: 39½ — Result: Over

2011—@ Jets 28 Bills 24 — Total: 43 — Result: Over

2011—Jets 27 @ Bills 11 — Total: 45 — Result: Under

2010—@ Jets 38 Bills 7 — Total: 38 — Result: Over

2010—Jets 38 @ Bills 14 — Total: 36½ — Result: Over

>The Over is 7-5 in L12 but the Under has W3 in a row and is 3-1 L4 at Buffalo.


Thoughts On The Total

Lowest Total in Offshore Market: 40 (Matchbook, Pinnacle)
Consensus Total in Offshore Market: 40½
Highest Total: 40½ (5Dimes, The Greek, BetCris, WagerWeb)

Totals Trends: This number—which opened at 42½ at 5Dimes on Sunday night (8:34 p.m. EDT)—went down quickly on heavy early Sharp Under money on Monday morning and now, on Tuesday afternoon (5:43 p.m. EDT), there are only a couple of 40s to be found in the Offshore market (Matchbook, Pinnacle) with a 41 (Under -110) still available here in Las Vegas at the MGM Mirage, so shop around early. 

As you can see from the list above, these two teams have slightly skewed to the Over in the L12 meetings—with the Over going 7-5—although 3 of the L4 meetings here in Flour City at Ralph Wilson Stadium have gone Under the posted Total averaging 41.25 ppg so, 1—This Total is right where is should be; 2—The Wiseguys got the best of it (from the Under perspective); and 3—A Pick-Six or Turnover could lead to an easy 7 points here, winning the Totals bet for Overs players and potentially losing it for Under players. So, bettors beware. Moose have been seen around this time of year. 

With two straight 22-17 scorelines, three straight Unders—in games averaging 39.67 ppg—and neither team being able to afford a Loss here with 0-1 Records, backing the Under is the small call here. Both of these teams play tough opponents on the horizon in NFL Week 3—the Chiefs in Kansas City for the Jets, while the Bills will be hosting the Arizona Cardinals, so this one could be coached from the Chess Match, let’s-be-cautious mode.


Why Stay Away from a Side in This AFC East Game at This Point in Time?
Because the Point Spread number was pounded so hard early, going from Bills -3 to Pick ‘Em, as we discussed here on Monday in depth in our 'Identifying Sharp-Public Action' article. Buffalo has so many injuries, that’s what‘s moved the line down, said Jeff Sherman of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook on local Las Vegas ESPN radio on Tuesday afternoon. And with Buffalo and 2nd-year Head Coach Rex Ryan now dealing with the Foot Injury reality with Florida State-product WR Sammy Watkins, this is anyone’s game and a stupid mistake could affect the Side and/or Totals game result here with both of these AFC East teams so nervous heading in and worried about falling to 0-2 with a tough opponent up next for both Buffalo and New York (6-2-1 ATS L9 vs. AFC East).


Thursday Night Football Trends, How Could This Game in Buffalo Could Play Out
The Thursday Night Football Trends here heading into NFL Week 2 shows that the host Bills have W5 in a row in this series although, on Thursdays, Buffalo is just 1-3 ATS the L4 games it has played on Thursdays but Buffalo is 14-6 ATS in their L20 games in Week 2. 

With the Bills having W5 SU and ATS in this series, the Side edge here has to go with the desperate hosts—the Home team is 6-2 ATS the L8 meetings—even with all that money having poured in, and still pouring in on the J-E-T-S Jets! Jets! Jets!. But it seems the most logical and safe play here may be the Under with this game possibly getting off to a slow start with both Head Coaches being somewhat conservative knowing that 0-2 start looms at the end of this TNF game for one of these AFC East Empire State combatants.


Predicted Final Score: Bills 19 Jets 17

Free NFL Pick: Under 41
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes where you can find a 50% Free Play

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