Expert Final Thoughts - Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions

Detroit Lions  players celebrating

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, November 23, 2016 4:40 PM GMT

Wednesday, Nov. 23, 2016 4:40 PM GMT

The Detroit Lions have been a pleasant surprise in the NFC this season and how nice to have a Thanksgiving Day game from Motown that really matters, as the Vikings head to Detroit. Let’s look at some of the relevant Trends for this wonderful matchup and offer up an NFL pick.

 

NFL Picks Season ATS Record: 66-45-2

 

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions (6-4 SU/ATS, 231 PS-225 PA) welcome the Minnesota Vikings (6-4 SU/ATS, 205 PS-176 PA) to Ford Field (FieldTurf) in Detroit Thursday for a showdown between NFC North leaders and the week 12 and Thanksgiving Day opener. Offshore sportsbooks currently have the Lions from 1- to 3-point favorites with the total at 43 almost everywhere. The money line odds see Detroit -132 chalks with the Vikings +120 while the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened up the Lions as 3-point (Even) favorites in its week 12 advanced line but had the Vikings installed as 1-point chalks in its 2016 Games of the Year out late Spring.

 

Series, Side & Totals Trends

The Trends show Minnesota to be 37-15 ATS their L52 overall, 7-3 ATS the L10 in November, 22-5 ATS their L27 after an ATS win and 14-6-3 the L22 meetings in this series while Matt Stafford (22-27-2 ATS Home) and Detroit are 2-10 ATS the L12 Week 12 contest, 3-9 ATS L12 vs. the NFC North and 5-0 ATS L5 on FieldTurf but it’s important to note those Lions numbers were carved by bad football teams while this version has some Hope and is learning how to win, playing in so many close games.

 

Of note: Both the Vikings and Lions (4-1 SU Home) won in Week 11—as did all six Thanksgiving Day participants—and all six playing on Thursday are above the .500 mark, the first time that’s happened on Thanksgiving Day since the NFL went to three games in 2006.

 

Final Thoughts, Logic, Turkey Day Game Picks

The Home crowd will be worth more than the theoretical 3 points here in this matchup with Golden Tate and the Lions NFC North waiting for this spot all season and having a chance to take the NFC North lead.

 

And with Stafford in gunslinger mode and Detroit loving the Thanksgiving Day slot, expect a quick start from the Lions Offense (23.1 ppg) on the fast FieldTurf even though the Minnesota Defense (17.6 ppg) is one of the league’s best. And despite Detroit having trouble with the Vikings in this series of late (3-8 ATS L11)—the Lions did win 22-16 as 4½-point favorites—it knows how much this game means to the city, franchise the culture of this evolving team.

 

 

Predicted Final Score: Lions 29 Vikings 23Free NFL Picks: Lions -1 -125 at 5Dimes, Over 42½ at Bet365

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