Expert Final Thoughts - How To Bet Ravens vs. Patriots

New England Patriots players in action

Kevin Stott

Sunday, December 11, 2016 10:23 PM UTC

Sunday, Dec. 11, 2016 10:23 PM UTC

The Sharps backed Joe Flacco and the Baltimore Ravens early at the betting windows for this Monday Night Football against Tom Brady and the New England Patriots, Is that they way to go here?. Join expert capper for a complete betting preview for you to get your NFL picks ready.

Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots

Tom Brady and the New England Patriots (10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS, 319 PS-207 PA) and Joe Flacco and the Baltimore Ravens (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS, 256 PS-207 PA) in this Monday Night Football AFC matchup from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. Offshore sportsbooks have New England as 6½- to 7-point favorites after the game opened at 8 Pick with the total from 44½ to 45.


The money line odds see New England -265 favorites with Baltimore +235 while the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened the Patriots big 10-point favorites here in its NFL Week 14 Advanced Line, so you can see how much Time and the Rob Gronkowski (Back) Injury have affected bettors’ perceptions. The SuperBook 2016 NFL Games of the Year —out Spring—opened the the Patriots 7½-point favorites, much closer to this weekend’s reality.


Monday Night Football, Side, Totals and Series Trends

The MNF Trends in this game see Steve Smith and the Ravens 5-0 ATS L5 Mondays, 8-8 ATS as a Road Underdog with Road Totals 8-13 in Ravens Monday night games since 1980 while the Patriots are 6-4 ATS as Home Favorites, have a 13-9 O/U mark Monday nights but are 2-9 ATS vs. Non-Division Opponents Off SU Win (BAL beat MIA, 38-6).

Baltimore has done fairly well in this series, going 4-0-1 ATS the L5 here in New England and the Ravens 19-9-1 ATS L29 vs. Team with Winning Record, 4-1 ATS L5 overall and on FieldTurf but 0-4 ATS L4 Road games. Super Bowl odds favorites New England have played 3 straight Unders but the Over is 56-27 L83 games on FieldTurf, although the temperatures were probably higher. The Patriots are 9-3-2 ATS L14 Home games and 35-17-4 ATS against Teams with Winning Road records.


Final Thoughts and Pick

The Weather has definitely had its effect on NFL Totals in November and December and with Baltimore playing well and Gronkowski out, expect the Patriots to have a more conservative approach here although Homefield advantage in the AFC is still on the line and Head Coach Bill Belichick (168-124-7 ATS) likes to get his edges where he can. There may be some value in getting New England under 7 here—if it get there—but like the Raiders-Chiefs on TNF, Mother Nature may end up playing the biggest part in the style of play and actual play selection here for all four quarters Monday.


Predicted Final Score: Patriots 24 Ravens 15Free NFL Pick: Under 45 Best Line Offered: at Bovada

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