Expert Final Thoughts - How To Bet Raiders vs. Broncos

Oakland Raiders players gathered around

Saturday, December 31, 2016 4:42 PM GMT

With Derek Carr done for the season with a fibula injury and the AFC Playoff positioning on the line, the Raiders will have to turn to Matt McGloin to lead the way against the Broncos. 

Oakland Raiders vs Denver Broncos  

If the Dolphins upset the Patriots in Miami Gardens earlier in the day in week 17, then the Raiders (12-3 SU, 10-5 ATS, 410 PS-361 PA) can still capture the AFC’s #1 seed—and home-field advantage throughout—with a win over the Broncos (8-7 SU/ATS, 309 PS-291 PA) at Sports Authority Field (Desso GrassMaster) in Denver (Partly Cloudy, 46°F) on Sunday afternoon in this New Year’s Day AFC West matchup.


 

Offshore sportsbooks have the Broncos as PK to 1½-point favorites, the Total from 40 to 40½ with the money Line seeing Denver -117 and Denver +106. In the NFL Week 17 Advanced Line, the Broncos opened 2-point favorites while in its 2016 NFL Games of the Year, out late Spring, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook Book opened Denver -4.

 

Oakland Raiders

The big story with the Raiders obviously is the Injury to starting QB Derek Carr (Fibula), so enter Matt McGloin (2-4, 29 yards) to try to keep the Silver and Black’s wonderful season going but what an awful Defense and Site in which to have to play in Week 17 to get into the flow. At least Oakland will get a Bye in Wild Card weekend next week.

Khalil Mack (11.0 Sacks) and the Raiders are 6-1 SU Road, 9-1 ATS L10 Road games, 6-1 ATS L7 vs. the AFC, 7-2 ATS L9 on Grass and 7-0 ATS L7 after allowing 350+ total yards previous game. The Over is 21-8-2 L32 Oakland games after accumulating 350+ yards previous game, 36-13-2 L51 after an ATS Win and 19-6-1 L27 following SU Win, but few if any of those Trends were carved in a weird Week 17 and in the brisk wind chills (37°) in the rocky mountains. The Under is 6-2 L8 Raiders games vs. AFC West.

 

Denver Broncos

Von Miller (13.5 Sacks) and the defending Super Bowl champion Broncos (Defense 19.4 ppg, #6 NFL) will be going with Trevor Siemian at QB here with Paxton Lynch also potentially getting some playing time, so, elite QB play will definitely not be on display in the Mile High City on New Year’s Day unless Broncos GM John Elway rushes down to the playing field and demands the pigskin. Offense and scoring have been major problems for Denver these past two seasons with even Peyton Manning floundering (2015) and with a suspect Rushing attack and Demaryius Thomas dropping footballs, it’s no wonder why.

Denver is 15-7 ATS L22 Following SU Loss but 0-4 ATS vs. Teams with Winning Record, 1-6 ATS L7 vs. AFC West, 1-5 ATS L6 on Grass and a suspect 3-8-2 ATS L13 January games—not cool for a Cold-weather based team.

The Over is 4-0 L4 Broncos vs. AFC West, 8-2 L10 Denver after Allowing 30+ Points Previous Game and 46-21-3 L70 Following SU Loss while the Under is 7-3 L10 Denver games against Team with Winning Record and 5-1 L6 played in January.

 

Series Trends & Betting Approach

The Favorite is 7-1-1 ATS L9 meetings in this series while the Road team is 18-7-1 L26. Oakland is 7-2-1 ATS L10 in Denver but just 2-7-1 ATS L10 meetings overall with the Broncos dominating at O.co Coliseum when they had decent QBs. The Over is 5-2 L7 in Denver with last year’s result a 15-12 Raiders upset (DEN -6, 43½) with Manning and Brock Osweiler struggling to produce Offense (#27 NFL Total Offense) for the eventual NFL champions. Life is so strange.


Should the host Dolphins upset the Patriots early Sunday, then the playoff picture shows the Raiders could still earn the #1 Seed in the AFC with a Win here in Denver as Oakland has the Tiebreaking edge. And Amari Cooper and the Raiders can still lose the AFC West with a Loss here and Kansas City beating the Chargers in San Diego. So this game matters.

In the end, this should be a Defensive brawl because of the nature of the game and the three (or four?) QBs who may see Playing Time. They will all be scared. But it seems Points will come easier to the Raiders, with Fear the wind behind their Silver and Black sails.

The undrafted McGloin may have more Confidence, be a better game manager and throw a better ball than Siemian or Rookie Lynch—but the Penn State product does need to work on his first reads—and Oakland will really need him not only Sunday to close out the Regular Season, but throughout January in the Postseason to achieve its ultimate gridiron goal.

 

Predicted Final Score: Raiders 19 Broncos 16

Free NFL Pick: Raiders +108

Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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