Expert Final Thoughts - How To Bet Dolphins vs. Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers players on field

Saturday, January 7, 2017 9:18 PM GMT

The Weather forecast for Pittsburgh on Sunday is calling for some very cold temperatures along with possible 10-20 mph winds, so that should provide another edge to Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell and the well-rested Steelers against the Dolphins in their AFC Wild Card meeting.

Miami Dolphins vs Pittsburgh Steelers - AFC Wild Card Round Preview

The Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) welcome the Miami Dolphins (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) to Heinz Field (Grass) in Pittsburgh (Cloudy, 19°F, Winds WNW 10-20 mph) Sunday in an AFC Wild Card matchup.

Pittsburgh are 10-point Favorites at offshores Thursday with the total 45½ to 46½. The money line sees the Steelers -310 with the Dolphins +266. The 1st Half odds have Pittsburgh 6½-point favorites with the 1st Half total 23 to 23½.

These two met at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens Week 6 with Miami winning outright as 7-point Underdogs, 30-15 (49½).

 

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are without starting QB Ryan Tannehill (Knee), meaning Matt Moore starts his fourth straight game for Miami which has a nice collection of skill guys in Jarvis Landry, Kenny Stills, DeVante Parker and Jay Ajayi—emerging into one of the NFL's best RBs.

But can a team from the sunshine state click without their QB in really Cold conditions? Moore may be a better and more confident option than the two starters in Saturday's AFC Wild Card Game. Miami is 0-4 ATS L4 Playoff games. 1-4 ATS L5 Road Playoff games but 8-3 ATS L11 overall.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers will have QB Ben Roethlisberger, RB Le’Veon Bell and WR Antonio Brown—who all rested in Week 17—healthy together for a Playoff game for the first time and with Pro Bowl C Maurkice Pouncey also back and Mother Nature lending a cruel hand, it seems Pittsburgh (0-3-2 ATS L5 Playoffs) will be ready for the Fish.

With almost guaranteed production from its three offensive stars along with guys like DeAngelo Williams and TE Jesse James, the Steelers should near or eclipse the 30-point mark. Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS L7 Home Playoffs games, 5-1-1 ATS L7 overall and 4-1-1 ATS L6 vs AFC.

 

Despite Cold, Wind, Points Should Be Scored

The Cold Front forecast hints at a low-scoring affair, but neither team plays good enough defense. The Over is 6-0 L6 Miami games overall, 7-0 L7 vs. AFC and 6-7 L7 Grass but the Under is 5-0 L5 Dolphins Wild Card and 7-1 L8 Playoff dates.

The Over is 5-1-1 L7 Steelers Wild Card games, 16-4-1 L21 Playoff games, 12-3-1 L16 Home Playoff games and 21-5-1 L27 in January although the Under is 20-8-1 L29 Pittsburgh games vs. AFC and 14-6 L20 overall.

 

Predicted Final Score: Steelers 32 Dolphins 22

Free NFL Pick: Over 45½

Best Line Offered: at BookMaker

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