Expert Final Thoughts - How To Bet Broncos vs. Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs players celebrating

Kevin Stott

Saturday, December 24, 2016 4:45 PM GMT

Saturday, Dec. 24, 2016 4:45 PM GMT

The Visitors are 6-0 ATS L6 and the road team is 5-0 ATS L5 in this AFC West rivalry, so that’s good for the Broncos as they face Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City Christmas Day-night, right? Let’s examine.

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs play holiday host to the defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos on a Christmas Day-night week 16 dessert from frigid Arrowhead Stadium (Grass) in Kansas City (Partly Cloudy, 33°, Winds WSW 20-30 mph). Heading into Saturday, the playoff picture saw the Chiefs the #5 seed with the Broncos (L2 SU) holding on at #9 in the AFC with the Oakland Raiders (11-4, #2 seed) atop the AFC West.

Offshore sportsbooks have Eric Berry and the Chiefs as 3- to 3½-point favorites with the total from 37 to 37½ for this AFC West matchup and must-win spot for the Broncos. The money line odds see Kansas City -175 favorites with Denver +155.


The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened up the Chiefs 4-point favorites in the NFL Week 16 Advanced Line while in its NFL Games of the Year, Kansas City opened 3-point chalks.

 

Christmas Day, Series, Side, and Totals Trends

NFL games are rare on Dec. 25, as are Christmas Day Trends, but Covers.com’s Jason Logan (via Patrick Everson and The Las Vegas Sportsline—one of the radio’s best sports betting shows) revealed the Over is 10-5 with Favorites 6-8-1 ATS and 7-8 SU in those 15-holiday games.

 

The Broncos are 12-5-1 ATS L18 After ATS Loss, 15-6 ATS L21 following SU Loss and 2-0 SU/ATS L2 seasons at Arrowhead Stadium, but Head Coach Gary Kubiak (16-15-2 ATS) and Denver are 1-5 ATS 6 vs. the improved AFC West and have seen its Passing Attack devolve drastically since a few seasons back when it thrived with Peyton Manning, Wes Welker, Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas and Julius Thomas.


The Under is 7-3-2 L12 in this series, 4-0 L4 Broncos December games and 10-4 L14 on Road vs.Team with Winning Home Record but the Over is 45-21-3 L69 following SU Loss.

Alex Smith (36-32-3 ATS at Home) and Kansas City —who have one of the best teams in the NFL in TO’s, W-L and opponent QBR since Week 7 last season—are just 2-4-1 ATS at Home this season and have won 5 Road games as Underdogs, in some pretty bizarre ways as ESPN Stats and Info duly noted. The Chiefs are 0-5 L5 Week 16 games but 5-0 ATS following an ATS Loss.

 

Broncos Scuffling Too Much on Offense While Kelce, Rookie Hill Have Blossomed

Head Coach Andy Reid (35-30 ATS) has effectively made the Chiefs (1-6 ATS L7 vs. DEN at Home) into one of those teams that just finds ways to win and with talented players like the Pro Bowl-bound Kelce, Berry, Marcus Peters and electric Rookie Hill, it’s no wonder.

And having to play up to the Raiders and these perennial AFC West champion Broncos has also helped make Kansas City one nobody wants to play at Home or in KC, although covering ATS at Home has been troublesome lately for the Chiefs (2-8 ATS L10 Home).

 

This Christmas Day evening game is a tough handicap, probably best just watched, but armed with Santa Tracker and Yule Log, the 1st Quarter Under (7½ -190, Unibet) and the Total Under seem like decent advice although around 37 in a desperation game for Denver and one with Tyreek Hill on the gridiron, the Total's quite precarious.


 

Predicted Final Score: Chiefs 17 Broncos 16Free NFL Pick: Under 37½Best Line Offered: at JustBet

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