Expert Final Thoughts - Houston Texans vs New England Patriots

Houston Texans team waling out of the field

Kevin Stott

Thursday, September 22, 2016 4:47 PM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 22, 2016 4:47 PM UTC

With backup Jimmy Garoppolo injured and normal starting QB Tom Brady suspended, the New England Patriots may have to call on third-string Rookie Jacoby Brissett against JJ Watt and the Houston Texans. Let’s examine and make a pick in what could be a low-scoring, early season AFC showdown.

Houston Texans vs New England Patriots
The New England Patriots (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 54 PS-45 PA) welcome JJ Watt and the Houston Texans (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 42 PS-26 PA) to Gillette Stadium in Foxborough for the NFL Regular Season Week 3 lidlifter on Thursday Night Football. Some sportsbooks have the visiting Texans 1-point favorites (5Dimes, BetDSI) while others have this AFC showdown a pick (, BetOnline) with the total in at 40½ almost everywhere. In the NFL betting odds (the Texans are priced at -113 at 5Dimes—a sportsbooks which has a solid A+ grade here at SBR and which has a 50% Free Play Bonus (to $520)—with the Pats +103 on the takeback.


Key Player Injuries and Suspensions

Houston - Braxton Miller is downgraded to doubtful Thursday vs. New England (Hamstring), Brian Cushing expected to miss 4-6 weeks (MCL), Duane Brown out indefinitely (Knee), Ka'imi Fairbairn IR (Quad), Kurtis Drummond IR (Leg), Nick Martin IR (Ankle), Lonnie Ballentine PUP (Knee)

New England - Jacoby Brissett expected to start Thursday vs. Houston (None),  Rob Gronkowski "?" Thursday vs. Houston (Hamstring), Jonathan Cooper "?" Thursday vs. Houston (Foot), Dont'a Hightower "?" Thursday vs. Houston (Knee), AJ Derby "?" Thursday vs. Houston (Undisclosed), Jimmy Garoppolo injured last game, expected to miss Thursday vs. Houston ( Shoulder ), Rob Ninkovich expected to miss first 4 games (Suspension), Tre Jackson PUP (Knee), Dion Lewis PUP (Knee), Sebastian Vollmer PUP (Hip), Tom Brady expected to miss first 4 games (Suspension)


Thursday Night Football Trends, How Could This Game End Up Playing Out
The Thursday Night Football Trends here heading into NFL Week 3 favor host, but those numbers were forged with a 1st-string QB and not a 3rd-string Rookie. The Patriots are 3-0 ATS the L3 vs. Houston at New England with all 3 games going Over the Total, 19-7-2 ATS their L28 at Home (63.1%) and 4-0 ATS their L4 games in September. And the Texans are 5-1 ATS in their L6 overall, but just 3-9-1 ATS their L13 on FieldTurf and an abysmal 0-6 ATS their L6 on TNF. A look at the current Money Line prices Offshore reveals if a bettor shops, he/she can get the Texans on the Money Line cheaper (-105, Pinnacle) than actually laying 1 point and paying more juice (-110) at some other sportsbooks.      

This should be great football theater with the Patriots forced to go to Rookie (USC) QB Jacoby Brissett and dealing with other Injuries and Suspensions (as you can see above) to starting QB Tom Brady, RB Dion Lewis, TE Rob Gronkowski and DE Rob Ninkovich while the Texans added QB Brock Osweiler (Broncos) and RB Lamar Miller (Dolphins) to an already decent Offense which includes star WR DeAndre Hopkins. With likely starter Brissett—New England still has Garappolo playing a “longshot”—so raw and the Texans playing such great Defense—they’ve gone 6 Quarters without allowing a TD—the lean here is Houston for your NFL week 3 predictions.


Predicted Final Score: Texans 24 Patriots 20
Free NFL Week 3 Thursday Night Pick: Texans -105 at Pinnacle
NFL Picks Season ATS Record: 26-12-0
NFL Regular Season ATS Record: 17-7-0

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