Expert Final Thoughts for Thursday Night Football: Chiefs vs Patriots

New England Patriots

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, September 6, 2017 1:31 PM GMT

Wednesday, Sep. 6, 2017 1:31 PM GMT

The Site, situation and starting QBs seem to weigh the heaviest here on Thursday night in the 2017 NFL Kickoff game and a showdown between two of the best Defenses and overall teams in the league. 

2016/17 NFL SEASON PICKS FINAL RECORD: 96-75-3 (56.1%)

Thursday Night Football Odds Preview—NFL Week 1

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots: The 2017/18 NFL Regular Season kicks off from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts with the defending Super Bowl-champion Patriots hosting the Kansas City Chiefs (12-5 SU, 9-8 ATS) in a great Week 1 AFC matchup on Thursday Night Football. Offshore sportsbooks currently have the Patriots as 7½- to 9-point favorites after opening at 7 months ago with the Total from 48 to 49 with the vast majority of shops hanging a 48½. The Money Line market odds see New England priced in a -370 to -430 current 60-cent range with the First Half numbers seeing the Patriots as 5½-points chalks with the First Half Total at 24 everywhere with varying vigorish with Over 24 the favorite.

 Kansas City Chiefs

Seventh-year Head Coach Andy Reid (37-31 ATS) and the Chiefs have built a Roster built for nasty games like this with Eric Berry and the Kansas City Defense (19.4 ppg, #6 in NFL in 2016) now able to keep this team in games both Home and Away with a group of studs that includes the talented Marcus Peters, perennial Pro Bowler Berry and possibly the best linebacking quartet in the league in Justin Houston (33/1 to be NFL Defensive Player of the Year, BetOnline) and Dee Ford outside and Derrick Johnson (90 tackles in 2016) and Ramik Wilson (57 Tackles) in the middle.

The Chiefs ranked No. 1 (tied with Oakland) in the NFL in Takeaways/Giveaways in 2016 (+16) and that and the 19.4 ppg allowed speaks volumes about this AFC West team’s work rate, talent and current Roster and new Kansas City Defensive Coordinator Bob Sutton has inherited something pretty special. The Chiefs also made some strides getting better Skill Position guys on Offense, drafting Texas Tech QB Patrick Mahomes to back up starting QB Alex Smith and drafting and immediately plugging in Rookie (Toledo, Round 3) Kareem Hunt (-125 Anytime TD Scorer, SkyBet) as its featured RB with the always dependable Charcandrick West as the No. 2 back. And with TE Travis Kelce (85 Receptions, 1,125 Receiving yards in 2016; Questionable, Calf) and WRs Tyreek Hill and Chris Conley offering serious scoring threats as receivers and Albert Wilson and De’Anthony Thomas as backups, this is as good as a Kansas City Roster has looked in quite some time and drafting Mahomes may seem like a smart thing in a few years.

The Chiefs-Patriots game matchup preview from the boys over at Covers.com reveals that Kansas City is 6-0 ATS L6 Road games and 5-2 ATS L7 overall with the Over 6-2 L9 September Chiefs dates and the Under 9-4 their L13 overall. Kansas City was 3-1 as Road Underdogs last year  and have covered 5 of 6 heading in here. The Under is 5-2 L7 Chiefs Season Openers and the Chiefs finished last season on an 8-4 Under run although 4 of the L6 have been Overs. The Trends are a many these days and the Site, Situation and starting QBs are much bigger factors in the handicap as well as possibly still getting the best number (-7½, BetDSI) available if backing the favorites in the commonwealth of Massachusetts as this number could possibly rise some closer as we approach kickoff. Because it’s the NFL lidlifter, this game will be extremely overbet so try to be cautious with your amount(s).

 

New England Patriots

Brilliant head Coach Bill Belichick (174-124-8 ATS) seems like the José Mourinho of the NFL, although The Grumpy One has loyally stayed put in Foxborough and in New England with his team for 18 seasons now while The Special One has managed six clubs (Benfica, FC Porto, Chelsea, Inter Milan, Real Madrid, Manchester United) in four different major European Soccer leagues in leading his clubs to league and UEFA Champions and Europa League titles. So one man has created a dynasty staying put in a grey sweatshirt in one place while the other has made his own personal coaching dynasty flying around Europe in Versace suits. Whatever works, right? Here we will get to see how big the gap between the Patriots—who lost WR Julian Edelman for the year due to an Injury in the Preseason—and the rest of the league is, with these Chiefs like one of maybe three teams that can actually go into Gillette Stadium and punch the champs square in the mouth and possibly outscore them in a low, chess-like game. But dictating theoretical Game Pace and Ball Control for 60 minutes when your QB is Alex Smith is a much different animal than it is with Alex Smith behind Center. You heard?

Last season the Patriots (2/1 to win AFC, BetOnline) went their first four games without Brady (and won) and the saw Gronkowski get hurt (but they still won) and this is a team very smart at picking up that extra player to help the whole machine work, as they did signing Free Agent CB Malcolm Butler and trading backup QB Jacoby Brissett to the Andrew Luck-choppy Colts for Phillip Dorsett (33 Receptions, 528 Receiving yards, 2 TDs in 2016).

New England is 43-30-3 ATS L10 years as a Home Favorite, 70-47-4 ATS on Turf and 29-16-1 ATS l10 years as a Favorite in Non-Division games, so the numbers show this Patriots team truly has an edge when playing at Home and have also sort of quietly been winning their backers money during this Dynasty-ish decade, possibly because of the huge number of New England non-Fans west of the Housatonic River. Ask any sportsbook director about the Patriots and you will hear the real R-E-S-P-E-C-T that this team justly deserves.

 Thursday Night Football, Series and Overall Trends, Patriots-Chiefs Simple Handicap For Opening Night

New England (1/25 to win AFC East, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) easily had the best ATS Record in the NFL last season (15-3-1) and the Patriots are 34-16-2 its L52 overall, 18-7-2 L27 against the AFC and 18-6-2- ATS L26 played at Gillette Stadium. New England has won 8 straight Season Openers and 7 in a row on Thursday while now 40-year-old Patriots QB Brady is 9-0 SU on TNF with 24 TDs and only 2 Interceptions. With possession WR Danny Amendola expected to fill the void left by Julian Edelman’s season-ending Injury in the preseason and the addition of Phillip Dorsett (Colts), Brady still has a plethora of targets including the returning Gronkowski (-120 Anytime TD Scorer, SkyBet) and WRs Chris Hogan, Brandin Cooks and Malcolm Mitchell. e Chiefs (9/4 to win AFC West, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook). The Patriots are 8-2 SU, 5-3 ATS and 3-3 ATS Home under the prime time Thursday night lights while Kansas City is 6-5 SU/ATS on TNF and 2-2 ATS on the Road in this situation, so no real perceived edges in that Day Of The Week micro-niche, where MLB seems to be the best Sport in which to apply those Trends.

So how much is a Home-field Advantage really worth in Foxborough here? And not only in the opening game of the year for the Patriots, but in the first game for the entire 2017/18 NFL Regular Season? And how much is having Tom Brady be your starter in Week 1 worth as opposed to Jimmy Garoppolo (last year)? And how much is worth having one of best TE’s in the NFL (Gronkowski) back on your team? Surely this must all add up to more than 7 points, no Billy? It often seems the rabid fans in Gillette Stadium often seem worth around 7 (points) themselves at times. The Chiefs are a very good team with a loaded Roster and capable of beating anyone, anywhere in the NFL. But we all dwell on the New England Offense and Off-the-field crap much and seldom say how great Defensive Coordinator Matt Patricia has made this team (21, 20, 20, 16 ppg Allowed L4 Seasons) 

The Patriots ranked No. 1 in the NFL in Scoring Defense (15.6 ppg, -2.2 ppg better than next closest team) last year, and in this spot, it seems like potentially a slow-starting game with the 1Q Under possibly worth a look (9½u +110, 5Dimes) although there should be points scored in the end, with Dion Lewis (+187 Anytime TD Scorer, SkyBet), James White (+137 Anytime TD Scorer, SkyBet) and new aforementioned toy waterbug (5-10, 185) Dorsett possibly surprising and maybe even hitting paydirt for the hosts. Expect this one to be fairly close throughout, fun and to show how disciplined two NFL squads can be in Week 1, thanks in great part to their veteran and calm Head Coaches. Logic says the NFL champions don’t lose their Home Opener on their sacred soil (NE 6-0 ATS L6 on FieldTurf) and with a 5-0 ATS mark the L5 in September, backing New England and the better-throwing QB Brady (118-89 ATS as favorite) is the pick in this 2017/18 NFL Kickoff game.

 

PREDICTED TNF FINAL SCORE: Patriots 30 Chiefs 20
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