Expert Final Thoughts & Betting Approaches for SNF: Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons

picks for snf

Kevin Stott

Sunday, September 17, 2017 3:16 PM GMT

Sunday, Sep. 17, 2017 3:16 PM GMT

The time has come for the first NFL Regular Season game ever at the new, state-of-the-art Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, and what better foes for Matt Ryan and the Falcons than Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.

Sunday Night Football Odds Preview and Pick—NFL Week 2

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (NBC, DTV 212 (US), 8:30 pm ET): Matt Ryan and the defending NFC champion Falcons (13-6 SU, 12-7 ATS in 2016) open the doors of the brand new Mercedes-Benz Stadium (FieldTurf) in Atlanta to face Aaron Rodgers and the Packers (12-7 SU, 11-7-1 ATS in 2016) in this huge early season NFC showdown, Offshore sportsbooks currently have host Atlanta as as 2½- (Falcons-130 5Dimes) to 3-point (Betmania) range as Favorites after the Falcons opened as 1-point chalks. The Total is is in a tight 54 (GTBets) to 48½ (WagerWeb) range with not much movement from it 54 opener in what linemakers expect to be a shootout with these two QBs and this fast-track new Site. The Money Line market odds see Atlanta now priced in a -145 (SportsInteraction) to -160 (MyBookie.ag) 150-cent range after a -145 open. The First Half odds see the host Falcons as 1- (BookMaker) to 1½-point chalks with the First Half Total at 27½ (JustBet).

 


Green Bay Packers

Twelfth-year Head Coach Mike McCarthy (112-78-5 ATS) and the Packers (9/1 to win Super Bowl, 5Dimes) looked pretty good in Week 1, defeating the Seahawks at Home in the friendly confines of Lambeau Stadium in Green Bay last Sunday, 17-9 (GB -2½, 50), rallying from a 3-0 Halftime deficit with Ty Montgomery rushing TD and a Jordy Nelson receiving TD to secure the Win. The Green Bay Defense did a great job, limiting Seattle to 3 FGs and a stone-cold Under which was 0-0 after the 1st Quarter and never close to approaching the huge Total of 50.

 

 

One big problem heading in here for Rodgers (3/1 to win 2017-18 NFL MVP, Bovada) and the Packers (+425 to win the NFC, 5Dimes)—besides facing the defending league champions in their first Regular Season Home game in a new building on prime time TV—is the health of the Offensive Line. Starting Tackle Bryan Bulaga missed practice on Wednesday due to an Illness and also missed Week 1 after returning from Ankle surgery ad Tackles David Bakhtiari (Hamstring) and Jason Spriggs (Ankle) also did not participate in the GB practice. So even if Bulaga and bakhtiari can go, expect them to be far from 100% with the Packers Coaching Staff keeping a close eye on them and QB Rodgers knowing he may have gimpy blocking, at the Tackle positions for this rematch between last season’s NFC Finals participants (ATL 44-21; ATL -6, 59½), played in the “old” Georgia Dome.


Atlanta Falcons

Third-year Head Coach Dan Quinn (18-18 ATS) and the Falcons (16/1 to win Super Bowl, BetOnline) looked pretty average in Week 1, against the Bears at Soldier Field in Chicago, winning 23-17 but failing to cover (for some) by a hook, closing as 6½-point Favorites against the Bears in the Windy City (ATL -2½, 48) in a game in which Atlanta (+685 to win the NFC, 5Dimes) averaged 6.8 yards per play and a robust 9.6 Yards Per Pass. Ryan went 21-for-30 for 321 yards Passing and a TD (116.1 QBR) at Chicago and that was a good thing with a virtually non-existent Rushing attack (Devonta Freeman, 37 yards, TD) with Austin Hooper being the most productive player on either Offenses despite making only 2 receptions for 128 yards, catching an 88-yard TD Pass and racking up 40 yards on his other catch (64.0 ypc) for the NFC South champs. Georgia-product Julio Jones had 4 Receptions for 66 yards (16.5 ypc) while Mohamed Sanu had 6 Receptions for 46 yards (7.8 ypc).

 

 

This will be the third meeting in the L10 months between these two teams with Atlanta scoring 77 points in two meetings with the Packers in the Peach State last season, winning 33-32 in Week 8 of the Regular Season (ATL -3, 51½) and then ousted Green Bay from the Postseason in the NFC Finals at the Georgia Dome, rolling to a 44-21 win in the NFC Finals (ATL -6, 59½) as the Green Bay Defense seemed helpless against Ryan, Jones and the Atlanta Offense and the packers saw their 8-game winning streak snapped. And with two green CB’s in the Green Bay Defensive backfield expected in Week 2 in Rookie Kevin King (Washington) and Davon House and the Running game so ineffective against the Bears, expect Ryan (16/1 to win NFL MVP, Bovada) to look for Jones (100/1 to win NFL MVP, Bovada) often in this great matchup for the NFL, NBC and the sportsbooks.


Sunday Night Football, Series, Overall Trends, Analysis and Totals Pick

The Falcons are an impressive 10-5 ATS the L15 against Green Bay but just 4-3 ATS the L7 and 1-3 ATS L4 in Atlanta. The SNF Trends from the Marc Lawrence Playbook show the Falcons to be 7-5 ATS at Home, 3-3 ATS as Favorites and 6-3 ATS off a SU Win on Sunday nights while the Packers are 11-8 ATS on the Road, 6-3 ATS as Underdogs and 8-11 ATS after a SU Win the previous week. Green Bay is 8-7 SU L15 meetings with the Dirty Birds. Even though the Under is 9-6 the L15 meetings in this series and with gunslingers Rodgers and Ryan as QBs, there are a trio of reasons to contemplate backing the Under at the betting windows in this particular spot: The high Totals number itself (54½), the potential circumstances from having an Injured or at least hobbled OL for the Packers might limit both the visitors Rushing and Passing attacks and the simple reality this is the first time these players are playing a football game in this brand new, state-of-the-art facility.

They say familiarity breeds contempt, so does unfamiliarity breed Unders? Playing their first game in their new US Bank Stadium in Week 2 last NFL season, the Vikings and these same Packers played to and Under in a 17-14 Minnesota win (43) and the Dolphins and the Chargers will get to see if the StubHub Center—a venue built for soccer and the MLS LA Galaxy—in suburban Los Angeles (Carson) is a hard place in which to score points when Miami is at Los Angeles to bang helmets with the (Former San Diego) Chargers (45½, BetDSI). Both Green Bay and Atlanta (Overs 8-0-1 L9 Regular Season and Playoffs in 2016) played Under games in Week 1, the Packers-Seahawks matchup going Under by 24 points and the Bears-Falcons going underng Total by 8 points. Backing the Under here and looking or waiting for a 55 (or creating one) seems the best look.

 

 

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Falcons 27 Packers 23

NFL WEEK 2 SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PICK: Under 54½ -105 (Heritage)

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