Expert Capper Gives Out His Winning Super Bowl 50 Parlay Picks

Doug Upstone

Saturday, January 30, 2016 4:56 PM GMT

Saturday, Jan. 30, 2016 4:56 PM GMT

As we moved closer and closer to Super Bowl 50, the excitement and anticipation is building for this American holiday. That's OK, we own it and love it like few things on this now special day.

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Super Bowl Parlay: Panthers 5.5 & Over 45
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

 

Of course besides the parties, social aspects, commercials and talking about the halftime show, there is a game and as football bettors, this is our last hurrah for awhile.

Betting the game is one thing we can all brag about if right, but a lot of those wagering against the NFL odds are looking for the bigger score and that is where parlays come in. The standard parlay is side and total, but scores of bettors like to include the money line in the mix also. Here are my choices for Super Bowl picks in the more traditional parlay sense.

 

Total Square on Super Bowl 50
One of the most amusing parts of the Super Bowl to me is talking to those in the handicapping business about the game. Not being your typical handicapper, I'm frequently befuddled when a number of these people are always in 'character'. The one Super Bowl in particular that stands out is the one five years ago, when I had Green Bay as a three-point favorite over Pittsburgh. If I had a dollar for every person who said to me, "Oh, you're taking the square side." My wife and I would have a great night out at Flemings Steak House. For the most part, but especially the Super Bowl, there is not square or sharp side, there is on the Right Side.

I'm putting on my "square" clothes again and going double duty.

Though this will not be a big play for me, I'm on Carolina and the OVER. Concerning the side, for my money, Cam Newton is worth five points over Peyton Manning which is the majority of the actual spread. Newton has been the best player in the NFL, has developed into a first-rate passer and is a constant threat to hit the big play, be it with his arms or legs.

Manning probably is going to retire sometime before next season, no longer can consistently complete passes on a line down the field at 15 to 25 yards, making him more a dink and dunk operator, like any QB his age. Denver does the better defense, but from a spread perspective the difference between the two quarterbacks and the defenses still gives the Panthers an edge by three points.

Another large factor in this confrontation is red zone production. Carolina scored 34 times inside the opposing teams 20-yard line, the most in the NFL. No questioning the Broncos defense, but they were 20th in the league in red score percentage. Who allowed the lowest percentage of red zone scores? Carolina. Who was 28th in red zone conversions? Denver.

Looking at the total, if you want my full explanation on the total going OVER, check here, otherwise, know that Carolina's offense was the top scoring unit in the NFL at 32.2 points a game and they rang up 31 points in 30 minutes on Seattle's top scoring defensive crew and 49 on Arizona, who was 7th in fewest points surrendered.

I understand some of you will say the Panthers offense was helped immensely by the Carolina defense either scoring on opponents turnovers or being set up to do so, which I entirely agree with and is why I prefer the OVER.

Ron Rivera's defense has been outstanding in creating turnovers and it makes perfect sense they will again, which will lead to 7 to 10 cheap points that come along unexpectedly, pushing number past the oddsmakers total.

With this said, I'm down for square action and this profesional handicapper expects to collect this parlay.

Hundreds Of Proposition Wagers Available At SBR's Super Bowl 50 Betting Guide

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