Examining False Favorites & Top Dogs for Superior Week 15 NFL Picks

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, December 15, 2015 7:56 PM UTC

Tuesday, Dec. 15, 2015 7:56 PM UTC

Every year, right about now is where it gets tough with the betting odds to find the right choices for NFL picks. The sportsbooks numbers leave little leeway and research is extremely important.

Fortunately, I have having a terrific season doing this article and the video that follows, now 27-14-1 ATS on the year, 65.8 percent. I want to finish this off in style and have three NFL Picks that I hope make sense to you also. The current NFL Odds are courtesy of SportsBook Review's Live Odds Board.


Top Underdog: Washington Careless Buffalo
Even I'm struggling with the idea of admitting I even think this, let alone saying in public where people can actually here this, but in this matchup, Washington has the coaching edge with Jay Gruden. There, I said it, Gruden and the Redskins will as assemble a game plan in which the underdog beats bungling Buffalo. After Dallas game on Monday, really did not think Washington would get their first road win in Chicago, but the Skins had s smart efficient plan and executed it. With Rex Ryan's press conference the same every week talking about mistakes and lost opportunities, Washington takes advantage of the most penalized in the NFL and moves to 6-2 SU at home.

NFL Pick: Washington Redskins Against the Spread
Best Line Offered: +1 (-105) at Heritage

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False Favorite: Pittsburgh Getting Too Much Credit
No question Ben Roethlisberger vs. Brock Osweiler sounds like a mismatch. And this football handicapper cannot deny Pittsburgh is enticing since they are averaging 35.2 point per game in last five compared to Denver's puny figure of 21.6 PPG, no matter who has been their quarterback. Nevertheless, Denver has the No.1 defense in the NFL, both in yards allowed (272.5) and points (17.3) and to make them a six-point road underdog does seem farfetched. Also, please don't tell me the Steelers defense is coming around because in their past three wins in which they gave up 39 points, they faced AJ McCarron, 40-year old Matt Hasselback and Josh McCown. Not that Osweiler is an upgrade against that contingent, but the defense certainly is. Pitt might win but by no more than four.

NFL Pick: Denver Broncos Against the Spread
Best Line Offered: +6 (-105) at Pinnacle

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Top Underdog: Just the Giants Kind of Game
There is just something about Tom Coughlin and the New York Giants. You know they are going to lose games they shouldn't, but invariably bounce back and win contests like they did on Monday. You also understand when they face elite competition out of the NFC East, they are going to come up with a performance that is noteworthy. After Carolina beat Green Bay, I looked at the Panthers remaining schedule and saw two trouble spots, one in New Orleans (which proved accurate) and one with the Giants. This is just the kind of conflict New York rises to the occasion like they did against New England earlier. Also, road favorites like Carolina (-5.5)  scoring 27 or more points per game, after leading in their previous contest by 21 or more points at the half, are 4-20 ATS the last decade. Big Blue covers and just might win.

NFL Pick: New York Giants Against the Spread
Best Line Offered: +5.5 (-110) at BetOnline

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