Examining False Favorites & Top Dogs For Our Week 17 NFL Picks

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, December 29, 2015 7:18 PM GMT

Tuesday, Dec. 29, 2015 7:18 PM GMT

We are at the end of the line for regular season in the NFL. We are either a success, failure or somewhere in between with our NFL picks as we enter the final week of quite a journey.

As mentioned, the final two weeks tend to be wacky for NFL picks, as we witnessed with wins by Atlanta, St. Louis and Baltimore and narrow escape by Kansas City. Look for more of the same this week when studying the NFL odds.

For this article and the video that follows, I will try and closeout out what has been another very strong season at 30-17-1 ATS, 63.8 percent, with more winners.

 

False Favorite - New York Jets (-3) in Precarious Situation
As much as I dislike Rex Ryan, when you get to the last two weeks of the NFL season, a lot of weird stuff happens. Last week we saw a number of peculiar outcomes and one that catches my eye is Ryan and his Buffalo team, which has been largely disappointing this season. But this a personal game for the former Jets coach, whose big ego probably let's him believe he could have accomplished as much with New York if he would have still been their head coach. The Bills are a dangerous home underdog and have nothing to lose, while Gang Green has everything at stake to reach the playoffs. This has battle has 17-16 written all over it, with the winner to be determined.

 

Top Underdog - Surging Detroit (+1) Wins on the Road
The Detroit Lions looked bad for a half against San Francisco but upped their game in the second half to pull away from the 49ers 32-17 and cover the nine points. Chicago ended their three-game losing streak with a rare December road win. While Detroit has a longer history of road failures, they have won at Green Bay for the first time in decades and were sharp at New Orleans. The Bears have not gotten the job at Soldier Field all season at 1-6 and 2-5 ATS and are just 6-16-1 ATS the past three years. Since returning from London, the Detroit defense has only allowed 19.2 PPG, while Jay Cutler has his team is scoring only 20.6 PPG at home. The Lions have more incentive and could finish 6-2 SU and win this game by six.

 

False Favorite - Green Bay (-3.5) Dissolving
Any thoughts of the Green Bay Packers just needing Aaron Rodgers and a bunch guys wearing green and gold uniforms was thoroughly put to rest in the Arizona desert. Rodgers and the Packers might be going to postseason, but with the offensive line in tatters, receivers who cannot get open, you could make a case today, Green Bay at this moment is the third-best team in the NFC North. If the Packers cannot run the ball, Minnesota has better pass rush than Arizona (38 vs. 35 sacks) and could completely take away anything Mike McCarthy wants to do. The Pack has already lost two at Lambeau Field this season and the Vikings are 6-1 ATS on the road. Minnesota has real chance to win this game outright.

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