Examining False Betting Favorites & Top Dogs for Week 8 NFL Picks

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, October 27, 2015 7:29 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 27, 2015 7:29 PM UTC

As Week 8 in the NFL is set to kick off Thursday night we highlight teams who are large favorites or underdogs who don't deserve the numbers they are getting on the NFL odds board. 

Besides those two contests, I have a Top Underdog I like out of the NFC South. For the season I am a quality 14-7 ATS on these NFL picks and will be out to continue winning trend.

The present listed NFL odds are courtesy of Heritage.


False Favorite: Kansas City Not Good Enough to Bury Detroit
The first casualties for the Lions occurred with coaching staff changes, which tells you how desperate Detroit is, doing this while flying for a game in London, with a bye week in the offing. Kansas City was raised from -3.5 to -5 or -6 depending on the sportsbook.

While I understand Detroit is a bigger mess than a plate full of chili cheese fries, the Chiefs are one game better than the Lions by virtue of beating Pittsburgh at home, with the Steelers using a quarterback who had never took the opening snap in an NFL game, backed with a 3-0 turnover edge.

With my money, the oddsmakers opening salvo was correct, and teams like Kansas City after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games, against opponent who allowed 25 points or more in consecutive contests, are 15-41 ATS the last decade.


Top Dog: Tampa Bay Rebounds from Deflating Defeat
About the only good coming from the Buccaneers blowing 24-0 lead at Washington was they still covered for sports picks for those who had chosen them. Now unless Tampa Bay pulls a Texans trick like last week, the Bucs at +7 is worth a look.

Despite giving up 29.8 points a game, Tampa Bay's defense is sixth in total defense and eighth in yards per play, meaning as long as they are not placed in bad situations, they can be effective. The Buccaneers are 7-0 ATS in away outings after two straight games of 50 or more total points rung up.

Also, Atlanta is wilting after quick start and is 0-3 ATS, averaging 18.6 PPG and having committed eight turnovers in this stretch. With the Falcons a horrendous 6-25 ATS after gaining 375 or more total yards in consecutive tilts, I'll take the points with the Buccaneers.


False Favorite: St. Louis Too Large a Favorite
Sticking with the same theme despite missing on St. Louis in the same exact role last week. The Rams won over Cleveland by 18 digits in spite of being out-gained by 54 yards. The difference in the game was related to two factors, the Browns committing four turnovers, which led directly to 17 of St. Louis' 24 points and Cleveland having four specific penalties, that cost them 89 yards gained (not including the yards lost on penalties) and twice took them out of scoring position.

As expected by most football handicappers, San Francisco is not a very good squad, but does have their moments. The 49ers have covered against Minnesota, the Giants and Baltimore and like the G-Men and Ravens, the Rams are in the bottom half of the stats when it comes to passing yards surrendered. Unless there is a wide chasm in talent, which there is not, hard to concede St. Louis is a good bet at -9, with home teams doling out 7.5 or more points on the closing line 4-8 ATS this season.

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