Enthusiastic Consent For Titans In Week 16 - NFL Picks

Jason Lake

Monday, December 19, 2016 8:02 PM UTC

Monday, Dec. 19, 2016 8:02 PM UTC

The sharps have spoken: They’ve got the Tennessee Titans in their Week 16 NFL picks, although it might be more about fading Saturday’s opponents, the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Record: 22-20-1 ATS, 4-8 Totals

Is this real life? Are the Tennessee Titans (8-6 SU, 6-8 ATS) actually fulfilling the promise they’ve teased us with for years now? Sure seems that way. With just two games left before the playoffs, the Titans are in the thick of the AFC Wild Card race, and one of those games is coming up Saturday against the lame-duck Jacksonville Jaguars (2-12 SU, 6-8 ATS). Oh my.

Even the sharps are coming out of the woodwork to bet on Tennessee. The Titans opened as 4-point road faves on the Week 16 NFL odds board; our consensus reports show 100 percent of early bettors on the visitors, moving the spread to Tennessee –4.5 in a matter of minutes. We’re still looking at 98 percent consensus on the Titans as we go to press. Is there any reason to choose otherwise?

Marrone + Easy Target

It’d be nice if the data supported the early action. The fine folks at FiveThirtyEight have projected the Titans to win Saturday’s game (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS) 65 percent of the time, for an Elo-based spread of... Tennessee –4.5. Balls.

Then again, the Jaguars are a special case. They fired head coach Gus Bradley on Sunday, replacing him on an interim basis with Doug Marrone. Midseason coaching changes don’t always generate strong NFL picks; according to Walter Cherepinsky, teams in this situation are 9-14 ATS (not including changes during the bye week) since 1996, although they improve to 8-3 ATS since 2009. Very strange.

Marrone did indeed coach the Buffalo Bills in 2013-14, but he opted out of his contract when the team changed owners. His players weren’t too happy about it, either. The new guys aren’t going to feel much better about playing a meaningless game for Marrone on a short week – on Christmas Eve, no less. It’s Jacksonville’s home finale, so they might decide not phone this one in, but we’ll recommend Tennessee for your NFL picks anyway. Motivation is everything.

Free NFL Pick: Titans –4 (–115)Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3011414, "sportsbooksIds":[93,238,19,1096,999996], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

comment here