Early Week 8 Odds & NFL Picks for Packers vs. Broncos Sunday Night

Kevin Stott

Tuesday, October 27, 2015 6:32 PM GMT

Tuesday, Oct. 27, 2015 6:32 PM GMT

Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos welcome Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers to Sports Authority Field in Denver on Sunday night for this primetime inter-conference showdown.

Odds Overview
What: NFL Week 8—Green Bay Packers vs. Denver Broncos
Where: Sports Authority Field, Denver, Colorado
When: Sunday, November 1, 2015
Weather Forecast: Clear skies, 43°, Winds SSW 5-10 mph, 43% Humidity
Current Point Spread: Packers -3 (Pinnacle)
Current High Total in Marketplace: 46u (Wynn Las Vegas, Caesar’s Palace, The Greek)
Current Consensus Total: 45½
Current Low Total in Marketplace: 45 (Bookmaker)
Alternate Total: Under 43 +150, Over 43 -175 (Bet365)
Alternate Total: Under 42½ +145, Over 42½ -195 (bet365)
Alternate Total: Under 42 +150 Over -200 (bet365)
Alternate Total: Under 41 +162, Over 41 -225 (bet365)

 

Current Realities Heading Into This Game
QB Aaron Rodgers (32-27 ATS on Road) and the Green Bay Packers (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS) and QB Peyton Manning (73-69-2 ATS at Home) and the Denver Broncos (6-0 SU, 4-1-1 ATS) will both come into this Week 8 primetime showdown at Sports Authority Field in Denver on Sunday night well-rested, both coming off their Bye weeks. With Denver’s Defense, the 5,280-feet Altitude and the Travel, this could be a hard game for the visiting Packers, but the minimal 1-Hour Body Clock difference (CT to MT) shouldn’t be a big thing and with Green Bay watching the New England Patriots strutting their stuff over in the AFC, the Cheeseheads need to hold serve and win this showdown here—and Oddsmakers have Green Bay as the favorites so the Point Spread is a testament to how paltry the Denver Offense has become under 39-year-old QB Peyton Manning. Here are the scores for the L10 meetings in this series between the Broncos and Packers, a massive 25-year span which almost renders any Trends meaningless due to the layer of ancient Dust on the Numbers.

 

Final Scores in the Last 10 Meetings Denver Broncos-Green Bay Packers
2011—@Packers 49 Packers 23 Total: 46½ Result: Over
2007—Packers 19 @ Broncos 13 (OT) Total: 43½ Result: Under
2003—@ Packers 31 Broncos 3 Total: 43 Result: Under
1999—Packers 31 Broncos 10 Total: 40 Result: Over (By 1 point)
1998—Packers 31 Broncos 24 (Super Bowl XXXII, Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego) Total: 49 Result: Over
1996—@ Packers 41 Broncos 6 Total: 39 Result: Over
1993—@ Packers 30 Broncos 27 Total: 41 Result: Over
1990—@ Broncos 22 Packers 13 Total: 37 Result: Under (By 2 points)
1987—Broncos 17 @ Packers 17 (Tie, OT; Milwaukee County Stadium) Total: N/A Result: Under
1991—@ Broncos 17 Packers 14 Total: N/A Result: Under

 

Recent Relevant Series Trends and Realistic Game Expectations
The Final Scores above reveal a 5-5 Totals record over the L10 meetings between these two teams—note that the Packers are on a 7-game Win Streak over the Broncos including a historic 31-24 win in Super Bowl XXXII at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego in 1998—but a Trends of 5 Overs in the L7 meetings overall. However, it must be noted that these AFC (Denver) and NFC (Green Bay) teams seldom play, and that the 10th game in this series dates all the way back to 1991, when George Bush the Elder was US President and the Internet and Twitter had yet to swallow so many young and innocent lives. The last time these two elite NFL teams met in was in 2011 at Lambeau Field, Green Bay romped to a 49-23 win, covering as healthy 12½-point favorites while the last time these two played in the Rocky Mountains, the Packers also won and covered ATS, 19-13 as 3-point underdogs in Denver in 2007. The Packers are 3-0 ATS the L3 against the Broncos, and as mentioned, Green Bay (42-18-1 ATS L61 on Grass) has W7 straight meetings overall in the series and the Packers are 23-9-1 ATS the L33 against teams with a winning record. Injury-wise, Packers WR Jordy Nelson is out for the season while Broncos WR Emmanuel Sanders is Questionable but lean to him playing in such an important and high-profile game. The Under is 7-2 ATS in the L10 Broncos games of Grass and both Green Bay and Denver Unders are 4-2 to start the season. But with both teams rested from Bye weeks and unbeaten marks at stake, expect both Head Coaches to use as much of their Rosters as possible and for all players involved to be ready. And with the game at night, both teams will be wide awake and aware of all results earlier in the day so maybe the only negatives stamina-wise would be for the Packers playing at Altitude and on the Road, away from the friendly confines of Lambeau Field.

One thing to look at here (and maybe profit from again although this is a tough scheduling situation compared to the first six dates) is the Under in the 1st Quarter. Totals of both teams combined in Denver’s first 6 games have seen just 6, 0, 0, 3, 0 and 3 points, or a total of just 12 overall (all four FGs) and an miniscule scoring average so far of just 2.00 ppq, with all going six games going Under the posted 1Q Totals, usually at 7½. With the Broncos ranking #1 in Total Yards (281.3 ypg), #1 in passing Yards allowed (192.2 ypg), #2 in Points Allowed (17 ppg) and #4 in Rushing Yards allowed (89.2 ypg), the Packers (164 PF) and QB Aaron Rodgers may be hard-pressed to move the football up and down the field like they usually do. But one good thing for the Packers—and maybe the Under here—is how good the Green Bay Defense (101 PA) has played this season. This one is a weird (Totals) handicap, knowing the Broncos have held opponents scoreless in the 1st Quarter, yet thinking Oddsmakers have made the game’s Total about 3-5 points light (low). So, expecting a 3 or a 6 or 7 in the 1st Quarter and then a rush of TDs and FGs in Quarters 2, 3 and 4, taking the 1st Quarter Under for a modest amount as well as actually taking the game itself Over at 43 or 44, also for a nominal amount, seems like a unique approach in a game where Logic dictates that a game with starting QBs named Manning and Rodgers should result in each team scoring at least 20 points. This one could be fun and will be weird for the eventual loser, falling behind in the Home-field advantage race in their respective conference for th Playoffs after losing their first game os the season in Week 8 to a team in the other conference.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Packers 26 Broncos 20

NFL WEEK 8 TOTALS PICKS: Over 43 -175 (Bet365), First Quarter Under 7½

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