Early Week 4 Betting Odds Value & Winning NFL Picks

Kevin Stott

Tuesday, September 29, 2015 12:57 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 29, 2015 12:57 PM UTC

Often, first instincts are always the best, so here are five games—with NFL picks—in which there appears to still be some value & in which the lines may continue to advance in your favor.

Sunday, October 4, 2015
New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins (-1)

The Advanced Line on this game had the Miami Dolphins (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) slight 1-point favorites (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook), while the Opening Line saw the game at Pick ‘Em, and now (Monday morning) the New York Jets (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) are up to 1½ at the SuperBook, a pretty good indication of how bettors feel after the Jets lost to the Eagles and the Dolphins were defeated on Sunday. There will be no distinct Homefield Advantage here with this game being played in London, England, but in terms of how these two teams feel about themselves right now, the Jets—who have allowed an AFC-low 41 points this season—have to be feeling better and like a team which can make a run at a Playoff spot while Ryan Tannehill (7-10-1 ATS vs. AFC East) and the Dolphins are realizing their dreams of a great season was probably more like wishful thinking. This game will mean much more to Miami who are 3-0 ATS the L3 vs the Jets. I just haven’t bought the Dolphins hype, and like with fellow AFC East side Buffalo on Sunday, the feel here is that the Jets are a better football team than Miami. This line will probably keep creeping up, so laying 1 with the Jets early seems like the wise thing to do. The Wembley Stadium crowd  will likely be more willing to lean toward the upstart Jets once they see who they approach the game, and it wouldn’t surprise to see New York AFC making some new fans across the pond.
NFL Pick: Jets -1 (-125) at 5Dimes

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Houston Texans vs. Atlanta Falcons (-6½)
The Houston Texans (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) rode with Ryan Mallett (24/39, 220 yards, TD) at QB on Sunday against the Buccaneers and got their first win (and cover), 19-9, at NRG Stadium in Houston on Sunday. The Advanced Line for this game next Sunday was Falcons (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) -3½, but you can see, there has been a  big numeric reaction after the Falcons looked so good on Sunday, rallying to saddle the Cowboys, 39-28 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington as RB Devonta Freeman (30 rushes, 131 yards, 3 TDs) and WR Julio Jones (12 receptions, 164 yards, 2 TDs). Atlanta is looking as good as it has in years under new Head Coach Dan Quinn and Jones already has 34 receptions—a high for three games in NFL history—but the Texans had a nice performance from a RB in Alfred Blue (31 rushes, 139 yards, TD) and this team can play Defense (60 Points Allowed) with numerous studs like JJ Watt, Brian Cushing and Jadeveon Clowney, so there may be value in grabbing the talented Texans +6½ or waiting for it to possibly trickle up to 7 (or higher), which it very well could if perceptions saw it rise from 3½ to 6½ after the weekend performances of both.
NFL Pick: Texans +6½ (-107) at Pinnacle

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Minnesota Vikings vs. Denver Broncos (-6½)
The Minnesota Vikings (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) head west to Sports Authority Field in Denver on Sunday afternoon to face the unbeaten Denver Broncos (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) and QB Peyton Manning (73-58-5 ATS at Home) in a big game for Minnesota, but as usual in the Rocky Mountains, a tough task for any opponent playing at the Altitude (5,280 feet). When this assignment started, there were still a couple of 6’s on the betting board here in Las Vegas and Offshore, but now, those are but a distant memory and 6½’s are prevalent with Totals of 42½ and 43. With the number moving so solidly to 6 so early in the week (Monday), the thought is that this Point Spread will keep creeping up to 7 and possibly beyond with the General Public’s proclivity to bet the Favorites and remember the last thing they’ve seen (Broncos winning Sunday night). Minnesota will also be losing 2 hours off their Body Clocks—the game will start at an odd 3:25 p.m. CT in the Vikings rhythms—and have to endure travel, a bus, a hotel, another bus and all that crap that comes with being the Road team. Denver has W9 straight Regular Season games at Home and expect Thomas and Sanders and TE Owen Daniels to all help Denver get the win and the cover. The Advanced Line here was -5½.
NFL Pick: Broncos -6½ (-105) at Bet365

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St. Louis Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals (-6½)
The Advanced Line here was Arizona Cardinals (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) -4 over the visiting St. Louis Rams (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS), and now at -6½, you can see the NFL odds respect for what the Redbirds have done and their sexy 3-0 start. The Cardinals (+77 PD) have scored an NFL-high 126 points—in great part because of romps over the lowly San Francisco 49ers on Sunday (47-7) and the Chicago Bears in Week 2 (48-23)—and with QB Carson Palmer (28-26 ATS vs. NFC West) back and healthy, WR Larry Fitzgerald putting up some big numbers and the Defense sound as usual, so it looks like last season wasn’t a fluke and with Head Coach Bruce Arians (23-11-1 ATS) bringing consistency and the team playing better every week, Arizona may actually be able to make a run at an NFL Championship in their own stadium if they can dance the NFC Minefield to get there. The Cardinals are now a fantastic 24-11-1 ATS in their L36 Regular and Postseason games and even though the St. Louis Rams—the Rams (CDT) will be losing 2 Hours off their Body Clocks here playing in the Sonoran Desert (MST)—are also on the upswing and that this is a big NFC West game, the Cardinals are now in a major groove and this one’s at Home. Like the Broncos above, this Point Spread could rise to 7 by kickoff.
NFL Pick: Cardinals -6½ (-115) at Bookmaker

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Monday, October 5, 2015
Detroit Lions vs. Seattle Seahawks (-9)
The defending NFC champions Seattle Seahawks (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) and QB Russell Wilson (23-9-2 ATS at Home) seemed to get their Mojo back on Sunday here, shutting out the Chicago Bears and seeing S Kam Chancellor wisely return from his holdout, while the the visiting Detroit Lions (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS) pretty much saw their season come to an early end after a 24-12 setback to Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos at Ford Field in Detroit on Sunday Night Football. Seattle RB Marshawn Lynch did hurt his Hamstring in the win over the Bears, but the Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in the L5 meetings at Home and with the Lions who will be traveling 2,350 miles, losing 3 Times Zones—EDT to PDT—and Seattle will have a healthy QB (Wilson) while the Lions Stafford still nurses a Shoulder injury. And going into a game against the Seahawks in Seattle with a gimpy QB when they’re as motivated as they are now usually isn’t a safe thing for opponents. They registered a shutout against Chicago and will shoot for one here vs. Detroit.
NFL Pick: Seahawks -9 (-110) at William Hill

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