Early NFL Week 3 Odds Movement - From Sharp Action on Dolphins, 49ers and Buccaneers

Kevin Stott

Tuesday, September 20, 2016 10:02 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 20, 2016 10:02 PM UTC

The Sharps went heavily on the Miami Dolphins and a little less so on the San Francisco 49ers and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers among some other teams in NFL Week 3. Let’s analyze these three NFL Week 3 games and see if we can build on our 17-7 Regular Season ATS Record with a couple of Totals for our Sportsbook Review NFL readers.

Sunday, September 25, 2016

Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins
Line Opener: Dolphins -6½ -125, Sunday 8:00 p.m. EDT (5Dimes)
Current Lines: Dolphins -10½ +105, Monday, 2:59 p.m. (5Dimes)

NFL Week 3 starts with a huge 4-point line move at Offshore sportsbooks in the first 19 hours from heavy money from Sharps. Why? The Browns (750/1 to win Super Bowl at BetOnline) have a major QB issue with Josh McCown (Shoulder) and Cody Kessler is expected to start here against the Dolphins (200/1 to win Super Bowl at Bovada) in their Home Opener at Sun Life Stadium. And it makes perfect sense with the Cleveland (500/1 to win AFC at BetOnline) set to start its 5th QB in the L5 games, Rookie and USC-product Cody Kessler. As you can see, 5Dimes, which is currently offering a 50% Free Play Bonus (up to $520) and which gets the top-notch A+ grade in the Sportsbook Review sportsbook, has already moved to 10½ for this game (Monday) while Pinnacle is still at -10.

So with the Sharps snatching up all the 7’s through 10’s late Sunday night and early Monday morning, the question now becomes, “Is it too late to back Miami?” and with the Dolphins (+1300 to win AFC East at GTBets) having played admirably at powerhouses Seattle and New England, the betting public has said “yes” so far as this very early screenshot reveals.


Even though the Trends support the Browns here (CLE 4-1 ATS L5 vs. MIA), it’s impossible to recommend backing them and it will be interesting to see how high this Point Spread goes. But one thing is for sure: This Miami (66/1 to win AFC at BetOnline) team behind 1st-year Head coach Adam Gase is on the upswing with Ndamukong Suh anchoring the Defense and nice Skill Position players on Offense like QB Ryan Tannehill (15-15-1 ATS at Home, 374 Passing yards Sunday) and WRs Jarvis Landry (10 receptions, 137 yards TD Week 2) and DeVante Parker although RB Arian Foster (Groin) is hobbled. Expect the Fish to impress in their Home opener here and for young Kessler to really be up against in South Florida in a game which was lined at MIA -7 in the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook Advanced Lines out last Tuesday, but playing anything over 11 is going to seem high for prospective Dolphins backers knowing that this Point Spread opened at -6½. The Wiseguys already got the best of this number.


Free NFL Pick: None

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San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Line Openers: Seahawks -11, Sunday 7:41 p.m. EDT (Sportsbook.ag)
Current Lines: Seahawks -9½ , Monday 12:05 p.m. EDT (Sportsbook.ag)


Analysis: A move toward San Francisco in an NFC West series which has been completely dominated of late by QB Russell Wilson (27-14-2 AT at Home) and Seattle (SEA 8-1-0 ATS L9, 7-0-1 ATS L8 at Home) here in NFL Week 3 but my interest is in the Total which opened at 40 and is still on 40 Monday night. A scour for the highest current NFL Total at Offshore sportsbooks at the best current price reveals a 40½ Under -105 at Heritage Sports.


So with Seahawks (10/1 to win Super Bowl at Bovada, BetOnline) starting QB Wilson still playing with bad Ankle and Seattle coming off another poor Offensive performance in Week 2 in which they could only muster a FG at Los Angeles in a 9-3 Loss to the recently transplanted (again) Rams. So that’s a grand total of 15 points in two games for the mighty Seahawks (+475 to win NFC at GTBets) who not only have to worry about Injuries to Wilson, but also to RB Thomas Rawls (Leg) and WRs Doug Baldwin (Knee) and Tyler Lockett (Knee). And with veteran TE Jimmy Graham coming off Knee Surgery and still not really evolving into the force he once was with the New Orleans Saints and RB Marshawn Lynch retired and fishing, this Offensive unit seems to be playing more defensively—as in trying not to get hurt or be too aggressive—putting that much pressure on Richard Sherman, Bobby Wagner and the Seahawks actual stellar Defense (16, 14, 17, 18 ppg in 2015).


In his Press Conference on Monday, Seattle 7th-year Head Coach Pete Carroll (62-45-3 ATS)—who has proven to be pretty good ATS through the years—was positive about how Wilson looked but Head Coaches are usually very vague and overly positive when addressing the Media and anyone watching how Wilson played on Sunday against the Rams has a good idea of the state of his health and mobility. Even with the advantageous Site and those gaudy Trends, it’s just too hard to recommend the hosts here as they look down and their Offensive Line has been a real issue for the L2 seasons. The L7 scores in this once contentious NFC West series at CenturyLink in the Emerald City (SEA 29-13 SF, SEA 17-7 SF, SEA 29-3 SF, SEA 42-SF 13, SEA 17-19 SF, SEA 31-6 SF, SEA 20-17 SF) reveals 4 Unders and a Push (Opening Day 2010, 37) and with the homeboys so hobbled, this should be low-scoring chess match bet down later in the week so the NFL Pick is on the Under.


Free NFL Pick: 49ers-Seahawks Under 40½ -105,
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line Opener: Buccaneers -3½, Sunday 8:02 p.m. EDT (5Dimes)
Current Line: Buccaneers -4½, 42 Monday 2:21 p.m. (5Dimes)

Analysis: This Point Spread opened at 3½, went to 4, 4½, 5 and then 5½ on Monday before some Sharps buyback at 5½, driving the line immediately down to 4½. Why? Maybe the Buccaneers (90/1 to win Super Bowl at Heritage) are a little bit better than some expected or maybe some think the 2,733 miles of Travel and 3 Body Clock Hours lost may be hurting the Circadian Rhythms of the Todd Gurley (0 TD, 2.7 ypc) and the Rams who just moved the whole damn franchise from St. Louis to Los Angeles, Californ-i-aye over the Spring and Summer.


So at 5½, any perceived value in backing the Rams (240/1 to win Super Bowl at BetDSI, Bookmaker) seems to have vanished and at 4½ and flattened out some, the number seems more accurate for what should be a low-scoring game in the Sunshine State. So again, we look to the Total for a potential NFL Pick and with Los Angeles (40/1 to win NFC West at Bookmaker, BetDSI) so good Defensively (22, 23, 22 and 21 ppg L4 seasons) and such a distinct Under team (0-2 in 2016, 4-12 O/U in 2015) with 16 Unders in their L20 NFL Regular Season games. And with Tampa Bay (+3750 to win NFC, 5Dimes) RB Doug Martin (Hamstring) banged up and 2nd-year Florida State-product QB Jameis Winston (4-6 ATS vs. Non-Division) and the Rams (120/1 to win NFC at Bookmaker, BetDSI) having either Case Keenum, Sean Mannion or Rookie Jared Goff in at QB, points should come at a premium in this one and with the Rams 5-0 ATS the L5 here, it’s just too hard to pick an ATS Side, especially with the Offshore market swamped early with the Consensus full of swashbuckling Buccaneers money.


A look at the L5 games in this strangely frequent—they will have played 5 straight years now—NFC series (@STL 31-23 TB, @TB 19-17, @STL 23-13, STL 28-13 @TB, @TB 18-17 STL) reveals 4 of 5 Unders and a deeper dive shows 5 Unders in L6. With Gurley still unproductive and Tampa Bay RB Doug Martin (Hamstring) injured, this could end up being an NFL Week 3 game of inexperienced QBs trying to get the football to some talented wishful WRs like the Rams Tavon Austin and the Bucs Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson. 


Free NFL Pick: Rams-Buccaneers Under 42 -105 at Heritage
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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NFL Overall Picks Record: 26-12-0
NFL Regular Season Picks Record: 17-7-0

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