Early Movement on Eagles and Over in Super Bowl vs. Patriots

Eagles Patriots in Super Bowl

Kevin Stott

Monday, January 22, 2018 2:00 PM UTC

Monday, Jan. 22, 2018 2:00 PM UTC

Sunday was a good day for the sportsbooks -- and for the Patriots and Eagles, who advanced to Super Bowl LII on Feb. 4. How have the Super Bowl odds changed since the opening numbers?

Super Bowl LII: Odds Update

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3392223, "sportsbooksIds":[19,238,169,93,1096], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Free Super Bowl Pick: Over 48 -108Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

Open: NE -6 -110 (5Dimes); Current: NE -5½ -105 (5Dimes); Movement: ½ point

Moneyline: NE -255 (5Dimes); Low: NE -217 (BetOnline); Movement: 38 cents

Total Open: 46½ -110 (BetOnline); Current High: 48 o -107 (5Dimes); Movement: 1½ points

1st Half Spread Open: NE -3 -120 (5Dimes); Current: NE -3-115 (5Dimes); Movement: 5 cents

1st Half Total Open: 24 -110 (5Dimes); Current: 24 -110 (5Dimes); Movement: None

Analysis

Almost all sportsbooks had point spread and total lines up for the Super Bowl before Sunday night's NFC Championship Game in Philadelphia had even entered the fourth quarter, with Nick Foles and the Eagles en route to a 38-7 win against the Vikings. Oddsmakers made Tom Brady and the defending champion Patriots 5½-point favorites at the majority of places (5Dimes opened the Patriots at -6), with the total ranging from 47½ to 48½ and 90 percent sitting on 48 after the Eagles-Vikings game ended at about 9:40 p.m. ET.

Earlier Sunday, New England beat Jacksonville 24-20 in the AFC Championship Game in Foxborough, Massachusetts, thanks in great part to two fourth-quarter TD passes from Brady to Danny Amendola, and some tremendous plays by CBs Malcolm Butler and Stephon Gilmore. The Patriots will be playing in their fourth Super Bowl in the past seven years.

At 10 p.m. ET Sunday, Bookmaker had moved the Patriots down a half-point to -5, indicating some really early money on the Eagles. The (NE minus) 6 number 5Dimes opened with could be rare, as well as the 6½ the line went to for around 15 minutes before quickly being wagered down, and the moneyline went from -255 to as low as -220. So, early on, 5½ was the popular side number with the total at 48, with scattered 5’s and 6’s at a few smaller spots and few 48½’s.

As far as the total, movement up 1½ points at BetOnline from an opening 46½ to 48 was seen in the first 39 minutes of trading, meaning early over money. If there is any continued significant movement on the side or total leading up to the game it might be on the over, with perceived scoring in an indoor stadium (U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis) and possible line movement from the general public’s proclivity to bet overs in big games. However, 50 seems like a real stretch, with 49 even a point where resistance might be met, with under money from sharps.

Best-Case Scenario?

This Eagles-Patriots matchup might end up being the best-case scenario for the sportsbooks volume-wise, with a high amount of side and totals money likely to go both ways over the betting period (Jan. 21-Feb. 4), with strong cases able to be made for both teams winning.

This game is a rematch (Patriots-Eagles Super Bowl Matchup Prop was 88/1 at 5Dimes) of Super Bowl XXXIX in Jacksonville, Florida, on Feb. 6, 2005, when the Patriots won 24-21 but failed to cover ATS as 7-point favorites. That game ducked under the closing total of 46½ by a scant 1½ points.

The AFC is a profitable 4-1 SU/ATS the L5 Super Bowls, with New England 2-1 SU/ATS over that span, winning SU and covering against the Falcons in overtime last year and vs. the Seahawks in 2015, while losing SU and ATS to the Giants in 2012. New England’s entire SU and ATS +/- in those three appearances came down to last year's 2-yard overtime TD run by James White.

The Patriots will be playing in their record 10th Super Bowl overall, and their eighth with Brady and Head Coach Bill Belichick. The Eagles, 0-2 in previous Super Bowls, will attempt to become the first team since 2013 (Baltimore Ravens) to win three straight postseason games as underdogs.

comment here