It is extremely important to pay attention to shifts in the NFL betting lines, as we can learn a lot from money flows. Find out how this has influenced our NFL picks on Vikings vs. Cowboys.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Dallas Cowboys 7:00 ET
The Minnesota Vikings travel to Dallas for a 7:00 ET kick-off in NFL-Ex Week 3. It is the first home game for the Cowboys, who have lost on the road (17-7) to San Diego and (23-6) at San Francisco. For the Vikings, it is their first true road game. Minnesota defeated the Steelers (14-3) in the Hall of Fame Game, then returned home for a pair of victories by counts of 26-16 vs. Tampa Bay and 20-12 vs. Oakland. Those most recent 2 home victories were against a pair of teams who had a combined 5 wins last season. In this week’s article entitled “Rehearsal Reversal,” I note that Week 3 is a “dress rehearsal” game in which teams normally play to their regular season form. In so doing, they often flip-flop their results from their previous August games. But, we will need to overcome a lot of history, if we are to get this victory.
Under 2nd year HC Zimmer, a reborn Minnesota team has gone 7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS in NFL-Ex games. Last week, in their 20-12 home win vs. Oakland, they were outrushed 120-87. As such, they were one of 2 of 10 teams who were outrushed by 30 or more yards by their opponent, but still beat the pointspread. Minnesota figures to have a decent QB rotation with starting QB Bridgewater and 2nd string QB Hill getting the majority of the snaps. No doubt HC Zimmer will be looking to extend his perfect 7-0 SU run in NFL-Ex.
On the other sideline is Dallas HC Garrett, whose Cowboys are 7-12 SU, 5-13 ATS in NFL-Ex play. Never was that lack of interest on display more than in last week’s (23-6) loss to the 49ers. Starting QB Romo took just 3 snaps and many injured, as well as healthy projected starters were rested. San Fran outrushed the Cowboys 38/155 to 22/102. Along with a +3 TO margin, it virtually guaranteed the 49ers the victory. This week, expect Romo and the starters to see considerably more time.
This game opened with a line of Dallas (-3). It has quickly been beaten down by early money to the point where the Cowboys are just a 1 point favorite. Many early bettors are obviously following the August momentum of these teams, ignoring the long and storied history of Rehearsal Reversals! As noted, much history needs to be overcome for this to work. But with the strength of schedule clearly working in our favor, it is an easy leap for this handicapper to make a contrary call with NFL picks on the Dallas Cowboys this Saturday night.
NFL Picks: Take Dallas Cowboys PK -120 at 5Dimes