Eagles vs. Jets NFL Picks: Back 'Over' 44 As Betting Trends & Recent History Point to High-Scoring Game

Jason Lake

Tuesday, September 1, 2015 6:38 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 1, 2015 6:38 PM UTC

Chip Kelly and the Philadelphia Eagles have swept all three of their preseason games. But can they beat the NFL odds Thursday night against the new New York Jets?

Something very special might be brewing in Philadelphia – and no, we're not talking about Donnybrook Stout this time. We're talking about the Philadelphia Eagles, who have been remodeled to suit the taste of head coach Chip Kelly. QB Sam Bradford has done very well this preseason, albeit in limited action. In fact, all four of Kelly's quarterbacks have contributed to Philly's 3-0 SU and ATS exhibition record thus far, with all three games sailing OVER their posted totals.

Less has been said about the New York Jets, at least since QB Geno Smith got cold-cocked by one of his own teammates. But they're 2-1 SU and ATS this preseason, and their quarterback fortunes may have improved with Ryan Fitzpatrick taking over the No. 1 spot. Can the Jets unplug Kelly's scoring machine when they meet Thursday night (7:00 p.m. ET) at the New Meadowlands? It's not looking too good. Our NFL odds board at press time shows the Eagles laying up to 5.5 points on the road with a total of 44.


Kelly's Heroes
Before we get too far with this point spread, let's turn our attention to the total. After running up the score in each of this year's preseason games, Kelly has the OVER at 10-1 since leaving Oregon and turning pro in 2013. The only game that went UNDER was in Week 2 of his rookie season, a 14-9 final against the Carolina Panthers (UNDER 44) where the Eagles threw two picks against what turned out to be the No. 3-ranked defense in the NFL.

We should also point out that this will be the 15th year in a row that Philadelphia and New York have faced each other in Week 4 of the preseason. This extends well beyond the tenures of Kelly and rookie Jets coach Todd Bowles, but in their previous 14 games, the Eagles were just 4-10 SU and 5-9 ATS, including 1-6 SU and 3-4 ATS on the road. More importantly, the OVER went 11-3, including every year since 2008 inclusive.


Unleash Tim Tebow
We're obviously not too interested in making any other football pick besides the OVER in this matchup – not with Kelly working his offensive magic. This being Week 4 of the preseason, we're not expecting to see any of Philly's starters on the field. In fact, Thursday's game looks like it'll be a battle for the No. 3 QB job between Matt Barkley and Tim Tebow, with Barkley starting the first half and Tebow playing the second half. This is according to Barkley himself.

As for the New York Jets, they've built up some quarterback depth of their own since Smith got his face broken. Fitzpatrick won't be starting; instead, Bowles says he'll be using Matt Flynn and Josh Johnson, with Bryce Petty on the outside looking in. Flynn could play most of the game if his hamstring holds up; he's a quality QB with loads of experience, including exhibition games. We're more than content to roll with the OVER with our NFL picks given the history between these two teams and the current situation on the ground.

Free NFL Pick: Take OVER 44 (–106) at Pinnacle

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