Apparently, the Packers are pretty good when it comes to scoring touchdowns, but the Eagles are no slouches themselves, and this Sunday, they’re getting as many as six points from the NFL odds.
Jason’s record after Week 10: 28-39 ATS, 11-16-1 Totals
Profit: minus-37.63 units
So Ben Roethlisberger threw six TD passes in a game – twice. Whoop-dee-doo, said the Green Bay Packers. Aaron Rodgers threw six TD passes in the first half of Sunday night’s game against the Chicago Bears. The Packers took that 42-0 lead into the dressing room and managed to hang on for a 55-14 victory, cashing in as 9.5-point home faves on the Week 10 NFL odds board. And no, the weather wasn’t a factor as it turned out.
The Bears are pretty beat up these days, so it was no surprise to see Green Bay go over big time in their matchup. Maybe the Packers should pick on someone their own size. Someone like the Philadelphia Eagles, for example. These two teams will meet on Sunday (4:25 p.m. ET, FOX) at Lambeau Field with the Eagles getting six points, up from +4.5 at the open.
There aren’t too many bad things you can say about the Packers (6-3 SU, 5-3-1 ATS) at this point. They’re not perfect by any means; the defense went into Week 10 ranked No. 16 in efficiency (No. 14 pass, No. 5 rush), and the special teams were No. 12 overall, with substandard results on kick returns. The offensive line could be a little healthier, too. LG Josh Sitton (toe) and RG T.J. Lang (ankle) both played hurt against Chicago.
Otherwise, this is a hell of a football team. Rodgers (120.1 passer rating) now has 25 TD passes on the season to just three interceptions. The offense was ranked No. 3 overall (No. 5 pass, No. 10 rush) going into Week 10, and could rise even higher after pummeling the Bears. With the win, Green Bay moved to the top of the NFC in Simple Rating System at plus-6.8.
Monday Night Sanchez
But that was before the Eagles (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS) played Monday night. By the time you read this, Philadelphia might lead the conference in SRS after embarrassing the Carolina Panthers 45-21 as 7-point home faves. Mark Sanchez got his sweet, sweet redemption with a pair of TD passes and zero turnovers, ending the day with 332 yards passing before giving way to fellow USC alum Matt Barkley in garbage time.
This could be the start of something big. As we said last week, as long as Sanchez can play relatively mistake-free football, the Eagles have just about everything else they need. They were right behind Green Bay at No. 6 on the DVOA charts (No. 18 offense, No. 8 defense, No. 1 special teams) going into Week 10, and we saw touchdowns from all three facets of the game on Monday, including a 34-yard INT return by CB Bradley Fletcher and a 65-yard punt return by Darren Sproles.
Given how well both teams are playing, it’s a shame we can’t add both to our Week 11 NFL picks. But getting the Eagles and six points is a little too good to pass up. That was the line before Monday night’s destruction of Carolina was complete; we suspect it will drop back down closer to where it was at the open, once everyone’s had a chance to bask in Sanchez’ glory.
But we’re definitely making it a small bet on the Eagles. They’ll be playing on a short week, and while Chip Kelly is already one of the better coaches in the league, we’ll give the edge in that department to Mike McCarthy. Just make sure Jon Gruden doesn’t plug in that blender anywhere near the Green Bay sideline.
The Five Stars
Defense/Special Teams: PHI
Market Bias: PHI
Betting Line Value: PHI
Verdict: 1-star pick on PHI
Free NFL Pick: Bet 1.4 units on the Eagles +6 (+103) at BetOnline