Drew Brees Poised For Regression In Passing Yards This Season

Jordan Sharp

Sunday, July 24, 2016 8:39 PM UTC

Sunday, Jul. 24, 2016 8:39 PM UTC

Sportsbooks are starting to release NFL Odds for passing, rushing and receiving season-long props and here at SBR, we are breaking down all the major players this season. 

Passing King’s Hefty Betting Odds
Drew Brees led the league in passing for the sixth time in his career in 2015 with 4870 passing yards. His NFL odds at Bet365 are very similar this season, but is the price too high considering Brees’ contract disputes and an offense lacking a consistent second option?

One of the main problems I have with the Saints this season is their lack of a consistent second passing option. Bradin Cooks is a beast and Willie Snead is solid, but he is not a game-changing receiver who is going to go nuts with teams paying most of their attention to Cooks.

The Saints signed Coby Fleener this offseason to fill the void from the Jimmy Graham and Benjamin Watson departures over the last few seasons. However, Fleener underperformed in Indianapolis and is widely overrated and overpaid. He is far from Watson or Graham and I expect hit numbers and performance this season to reflect that.

The Saints do still have a questionable running game and defense, which makes for good throwing environment. This is one of the reasons Brees was able to lead the league in passing yet again last season. Mark Ingram did have solid numbers, but if they can’t get more out of a guy like CJ Spiller, the Saints lack a solid third down back for Brees to check down to, and combined with their questionable defense, Brees will undoubtedly be throwing the ball.


Season Outlook
Brees took 31 sacks in 2015, which while it’s not a great big number, it was the third most out of quarterbacks who threw the ball more than 600 times in 2015. Here in 2016, if the offensive line can’t keep Brees upright, it’s going to be hard for him to recreate another 4800 yards. He has thrown for 5000 yards four times in his career and he likely would have done it again if he had played 16 games last season.

However, Brees also threw only 11 interceptions last season. That was one of the lowest marks of his career. If he gets back to throwing another four or five picks in 2016 compared to last season, it might be a good play to go with the under here.

In the projection services I use to gauge some of the season long numbers of quarterbacks for these picks, Brees is only projected for an average of about 40 yards more than his prop from Bet365. To judge a good play for these picks, I have been trying to get to an average of at least 120 yards above or below their prop odds to make them a good play on the under or over.  Brees’ odds kind of makes him a no play at this point, but I have a gut feeling that he might go even less than that. Add the under to your NFL picks this offseason.

Free MLB Pick:  Under 4835.5 (-125)
Best Line Offered:  at bet365

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