Dress Up Your Totals With These NFLX Week 3 Game-by-Game O/U Selections

Nikki Adams

Thursday, August 25, 2016 3:26 PM UTC

Thursday, Aug. 25, 2016 3:26 PM UTC

Dress rehearsal week of NFL preseason is here. To maximise your betting thrills here’s our weekly game-by-game NFL picks with a view towards total betting markets in this instalment of the column.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Miami Dolphins,
Thursday’s opening kick-off between the Falcons and Dolphins is trading on a high 43 point total across most sports betting exchanges. Some books are offering higher lines of 43.5-points. To all intents and purposes, it does make sense to have such a high line. The Dolphins are after conceding a whopping 41 points to the Cowboys in week 2 which skews their preseason stats. They have scored 41 and conceded 51 in two games. The Falcons, meanwhile, are 2-0 SU and ATS in the preseason and have scored 47 points while conceding 30 in two games. 

In last week’s second half, they conceded none to the Browns. But that’s the Browns, a side nobody has any hope for in the regular season. In any event, Matt Ryan and his O-line can light up and that just underlines this total if they get plenty of playing time. The Dolphins are a hit and miss with Ryan Tannehill but on a good day, he can get the ball rolling.


Free NFL Picks: OVER 43 -110 
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Dallas Cowboys vs. Seattle Seahawks,
The Dallas Cowboys have raised some eyebrows in the preseason with the stellar play of their backup Dak Prescott. In last week’s 41-14 win, he accounted for more than 30 of those points. That’s nothing to sniff at. In two games, the Cowboys have scored 65 points and conceded 42. On the strength of those numbers, it’s not surprising bookmakers hang this game on 44 points unanimously. However, the UNDER seems to be the consensus bet in midweek markets. 

That’s down to the Seattle Seahawks lauded defense and, in some respect, to the offensive issues revealed over the course of the two preseason games. Russell Wilson was undeniably spectacular last season with his offensive production but that form is yet to materialize. He was pointless in last week’s loss to the Vikings.  That is a strong argument for the UNDER, make no mistake. Ever the contrarian, though, we’re chancing the OVER.


Free NFL Picks: OVER 44 -110 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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NFL Friday, August 26

New England Patriots vs. Carolina Panthers
The Patriots are unbeaten in the preseason while the Panthers are 1-1 SU. This is going to be the toughest test for the Patriots and Jimmy Garoppolo. How he moves the ball against a solid team will be indicative of what NFL bettors can reasonably expect of the Patriots in the month of September while Brady serves his four-game suspension. Depending on your choice sportsbook, the total line ranges from 44.5 to 45-points, a testament to the offenses of both teams.

Free NFL Picks: OVER 44.5 -110 
Best Line Offered: at JustBet​

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Buffalo Bills vs. Washington Redskins
The Bills have scored 39 points and conceded just 19 points, but don’t be fooled by their generous +20 differential. The defense isn’t as good as those numbers would suggest. Last week’s 21-0 shutout of the Giants had more to do with the stagnant G-men’s offense rather than the stoic Bills’ defense. The Redskins, meanwhile, have scored 39 points and conceded 41 over two games for a -2 differential. Kirk Cousins hasn’t seen a lot of playing time but he should in week 3. 

Most sportsbooks hang this game on a 43-point total, which might be a touch high in the eyes of many NFL bettors. Bookmaker is currently offering a 42.5-point total, though. Consider Cousins can move the Redskins offense and the Bills have holes on the defense the OVER just might cash.


Free NFL Picks: OVER 42.5 -110 
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker​

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Cleveland Browns vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Browns’ offense is as inspiring as a mug. The 24 points scored over two games says it all. The Bucs, meanwhile, are working out the kinks under new management and are coming off a 27-21 win over the Jaguars. We have no doubt about Jameis Winston and the Bucs offense putting up points but can we rely on RGIII and the Browns to make up any difference in order to crack the total?


Free NFL Picks: UNDER 42.5 -110 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage​

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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New Orleans Saints
By the numbers, the Steelers don’t provide god reading. They’ve scored 17 and conceded 47. Ouch. The Saints aren’t much better with 31 scored and 50 conceded. In spite of these rather disparaging numbers, odds makers hang this game on a high 45-point total or thereabouts on the NFL odds board. If this were a regular season game, we’d be tempted to shade the OVER. As it is the preseason and both managers are a bit cautious about their veterans the UNDER holds more appeal.


Free NFL Picks: UNDER 45.5 -110 
Best Line Offered: at TheGreek​

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Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers
The Green Bay Packers are 2-0 SU and ATS behind the backup play and the UNDER has cashed in both preseason games. The Niners, meanwhile, are 1-1 SU and ATS and 1-1 in OVER-UNDER betting. Many NFL bettors are still processing last week’s surprise win over the Broncos. In any event, the total on this game is trading rather high at 46.5 points, largely down to the expectation that Rodgers will see a lot of playing time. Be that as it may, the Packers typically don’t light up the scoreboard on the road, even with their prized quarterback. Then there is Chip Kelly, who is an offensive-minded coach, but does he have the right quarterback in place to carry out his offensive fashioning?


Free NFL Picks: UNDER 46.5 -107 
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle​

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NFL Saturday, August 27

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Chicago Bears
The Chiefs are winless in two preseason games, both of which were narrow defeats as evinced by their -2 differential. They’ve scored 36 points and conceded 38 points in two games. After a humiliating shutout in week 1, the Bears lost 22-21 at the Foxboro. Although starters are set to feature more in this game than in previous weeks, the feeling is that this game will be a grinding affair. The Chiefs defense is nothing to sniff at and should give the Bears’ O-line a lot of headaches.


Free NFL Picks: UNDER 41 -110 
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline​

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Detroit Lions vs. Baltimore Ravens
In two preseason games, the Lions have put up 44 points and conceded 47 points to emerge with a 1-1 SU and ATS record. The Ravens, meanwhile, are 2-0 SU and ATS and look well balanced on both sides of the ball having scored 41 points and conceded 37 points. With more starters playing longer into this game it’s reasonable to expect a highly competitive clash that could crack the rather modest total that odds makers offer up here.


Free NFL Picks: OVER 42.5 -110 
Best Line Offered: at WilliamHill​

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Philadelphia Eagles vs. Indianapolis Colts
Although the Eagles are a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS I in the preseason, NFL experts aren’t sold on their offense. An inability to move the ball seems to be the issue. The Colts with Andrew Luck aren’t expected to suffer such issues though when he’s on the field. The question is how long with Chuck Pagano play Luck in this game. They can’t afford to risk the highest paid quarterback, can they? Totals for this game are therefore modestly low at 42.5 to 43 points depending on your choice sportsbook.

Free NFL Picks: UNDER 43 -110 
Best Line Offered: at Bet365​

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New York Giants vs. New York Jets
The Giants offense better show up in this game or heads just might start to roll before the season even gets underway. Well, maybe not so fast. Perhaps, the chomping block will get a good dusting in anticipation of the first firing. The G-men were awful and if they are similarly bad in this game, the UNDER is sure to cash. The Jets have had a mixed preseason but, then again, Todd Bowles hasn’t risked his starters overly. We expect both teams to take this game a bit more seriously, so we’re backing the OVER.

Free NFL Picks: Over 42.5 -107 
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle​

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Tennessee Titans vs. Oakland Raiders
The Raiders lit up in week 1 of the preseason but crashed back down to earth at Lambeau in week 2. The Titans, meanwhile, enjoyed similar fortunes with an opening victory at home to the Chargers followed by a rude awakening in week 2’s loss to the Panthers. In any event, these are two young teams in the NFL with plenty of offensive weapons. It wouldn’t be surprising if we see a shootout here between Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota.

Free NFL Picks: OVER 43 -110 
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes​

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Los Angeles Rams vs. Denver Broncos
After last week’s error-filled performance it’s hard to know what to expect of the Broncos in week 3. The quarterback output was abysmal. Whether this game goes over or under the 42 points total trading largely depends on the offense keeping it together and not undoing what their defense can and should do. Indeed, on the strength of the defense, the UNDER is the consensus bet amongst early bettors. However, if the offense has another sloppy account in week 3 the Rams defense is sure to capitalize.


Free NFL Picks: OVER 42 – 107 
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle​

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NFL Sunday, August 28

San Diego Chargers vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings have stifled both the Bengals and Seahawks offense to go 2-0 SU and ATS in the preseason. As well, both games saw the UNDER cash – an NFL betting trend that was prevalent in their games last season. Philipp Rivers and the San Diego O-line can light up but the veteran quarterback rarely shows up in the preseason. Besides, the Vikings defense is no slouch.

Free NFL Picks: UNDER 41.5 -110 
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker​

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Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans
The Cardinals are winless in the preseason while the Texans are a perfect 2-0. Somewhat concerning is the fact that the Cards have only put up 13 points and conceded 50 points. It’s hard to tell whether they’ll show up in this game in the so-called dress rehearsal week. Bruce Arians might not be too fussed about the result. Whereas the Texans have a lot to work on with a new quarterback calling the shots and a defense missing J.J. Watt.


Free NFL Picks: UNDER 41.5 -110 
Best Line Offered: at TheGreek​

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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Bengals are coming off a big win over the Lions in week 2, defeating Detroit 30-14. They’ll look to keep the momentum going in week 3 as Andy Dalton and the first string offense take to EverBank Field. The Jaguars haven’t lit up quite as we’d expected they might – they are 0-2 SU in the preseason having scored just 34 points and conceded 44 points. That said with this being the all-important dress rehearsal for the regular season we expect a more offensive account.


Free NFL Picks: OVER 43 -110 
Best Line Offered: at Bet365

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