Dress Rehearsal Week - Best ATS Plays For All Sixteen Games

Cincinnati Bengals

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, August 23, 2016 2:06 PM UTC

Tuesday, Aug. 23, 2016 2:06 PM UTC

We cover the dress rehearsal week in this game-by-game preview and serve up NFL picks against the spread. Who are we spotting at this important stage of the preseason?

NFL Betting Recap Preseason Week 2
Another week is in the books. There were some surprises along the way, near misses and complete and utter blowouts that went contrary to NFL betting market expectations. When all was said and done, we had a decent turnout and improved our game-by-game record.


NIKKI’s Game-by-Game Record in Preseason
SU 18-14
ATS 15-15*
TOTAL 17-11-2*
*(Two Games omitted from week 1 in ATS and Total predictions)

With week 3 fast approaching we set about previewing each and every game once again. Starters are going to see more playing time and that makes things a lot different. Indeed, already we see a different outlook on the NFL odds board at early doors than we did in previous weeks.

Bookies factor several considerations into the process of issuing NFL betting lines, taking the first couple of preseason games and the results in those with reservation. Week 1 and 2 of the preseason was largely an exercise for coaches to determine their rosters than anything else and, in turn, markets played it close for the most part. This week there are larger spreads to be had in several games at opening doors and there is a high probability more spreads will swell by late doors as betting action pours in.

So let’s get cracking with the current NFL betting lines.  


NFL Thursday, August 25

Atlanta Falcons vs. Miami Dolphins
The Atlanta Falcons look to make it three in a row in the preseason when they descend on the Miami Dolphins for their regular season dress rehearsal. The Falcons edged both the Redskins and Browns and covered in both games. By contrast, the Dolphins upset the shabby looking Giants in week 1 and then succumbed to a 41-14 blowout by the Dallas Cowboys. Still, the market favors the Dolphins at home. Reckon with the starters playing more the balance shifts to the hosts. For our money, the field goal advantage does seem a bit much for a side that struggled to move the ball at AT&T. Take the points with the Falcons.


Free NFL Picks: Falcons +3 -120 
Best Line Offeredat BetOnline

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Dallas Cowboys vs. Seattle Seahawks
The Dallas Cowboys are coming off a big win over the Dolphins in week 2, a game that saw fourth round draft pick Dak Prescott light up the Dolphins in a 41-14 victory and emerges as the feel good story of the preseason. Indeed, the Cowboys might have found a hidden gem in the NFL draft. So it’s with some surprise that we find the Cowboys trading as the massive underdogs at +5. Granted they are on the road and CenturyLink is a tough nut to crack. Yet, from what we’ve seen of Russell Wilson and the Seahawks, they are beatable at home it seems. Wilson’s offense has struggled. Particularly last week against the Vikings as the Seahawks didn’t score any points when he was calling the shots. Could be a worry or not. In any event, we’re taking the points with the Cowboys. Would seem awfully rude not to.


Free NFL Picks: Cowboys +5 110 
Best Line Offered: at Bet365

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New England Patriots vs. Carolina Panthers
The New England Patriots enter week 3 of the season with Jimmy Garoppolo most likely to take the bulk of the snaps. It’s important to get Brady’s understudy ready for the regular season and what better way to do it than against a side of Carolina’s ilk. It’s going to be a real litmus test for the Patriots especially playing away from the Foxboro. We have no doubt that Bill Belichick and the Patriots will come prepared with a great game plan, but the Panthers might prove too much if the starters play well into the second half. Still, we’re tempted to take the Patriots to cover one the road, if not win outright.


Free NFL Picks: Patriots +3.5 -110 
Best Line Offered: at JustBet

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Buffalo Bills vs. Washington Redskins
Preview: The Bills shutout the Giants last week but few NFL betting experts put any stock into that result. The reality is the Giants were godawful. To suggest therefore the Bills were amazing would be misleading. There were lots of negatives in their performance. Not as abysmal as the Giants but still a pause for concern. The Redskins, meanwhile, are modestly good after two rounds of the preseason. This game though should be more telling about their starters and where Kirk Cousins stacks up.


Free NFL Picks: Redskins -2.5 -120 
Best Line Offered: at TheGreek

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Cleveland Browns vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
In two games, the Browns have put up 24 points. If that doesn’t underline how poor their offense is, what will? They can’t seem to move the ball and that’s not the whole story. In any event, it’s not surprising they’re at the disadvantage in week 3. Matched around + 3.5 to + 4, depending on your choice sportsbook the Browns strike an unconvincing pose in NFL betting markets.


Free NFL Picks: Bucs -3.5 -115
Best Line Offered: at BetCris

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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New Orleans Saints
The way Mike Tomlin and the Steelers appear to be approaching preseason is with extreme caution. He’s mollycoddled his starters, parking them on the side line for the better part of the first two weeks of the preseason. It’s quite likely that same approach will be taken at the Superdome, which begs the question: do the Steelers have the incentive to win out in week 3? The Saints are coming off back-to-back disappointing seasons. Sean Payton and Drew Brees are under the cosh in what is a make it or break it season, we figure. They have a lot more to prove, you’d think. As it is, the Saints are nominal home favorites – anywhere from a PK to -1.5 depending on your preferred sports betting shop.


Free NFL Picks: Saints -1.5 -110 
Best Line Offered: at WilliamHill

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Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers
Green Bay Packers won and covered both their preseason games on the strength of backup play for the most part. The Niners, meanwhile, have gone 1-1 SU and ATS in the preseason, which includes last week's shock upset over the Broncos. However, that upset had a lot to do with the shaky quarterback play of the Broncos. Take the points with the Packers.


Free NFL Picks: Packers +1 -110 
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline 

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NFL Saturday, August 27

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Chicago Bears

The Chiefs are coming off back-to-back narrow losses. They lost to the Seahawks and Rams by a point in each game. The Bears were shutout by Denver and then rallied to 22-21 loss at Foxboro last week. As this is the dress rehearsal for the regular season we’re somewhat on the fence with our NFL pick for this game. We like what the Chiefs bring to the table but will they really go all out in the preseason? The Bears haven’t convinced and there’s a lot of pressure on John Fox to get the team up and running in the regular season, prompting us to consider the Bears might have more at stake here. Push comes to shove we’re tickling the Bears ever so carefully on our NFL picks. Don’t bet the farm, ok.


Free NFL Picks: Bears +1 -110 
Best Line Offered: at Bet365 

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Detroit Lions vs. Baltimore Ravens
This should be an interesting game to spot on your NFL picks. Two teams coming off forgettable 2015-2016 seasons, how they stack up could be telling. The Ravens pull off back-to-back wins and covers in the first two preseason games. As such, with home advantage, odds makers give them a field goal advantage on the NFL odds board. The Lions are coming off a big loss to the Bengals in week 2, a result that probably played a part in this rather hefty NFL betting line. This is the dress rehearsal week and we expect a better account by Matthew Stafford and the Lions.


Free NFL Picks: Lions +3 +109 
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Philadelphia Eagles vs. Indianapolis Colts
Although the Eagles are coming off back-to-back wins and covers there are those that simply aren’t buying what they are selling. Are they being fair or just churlish? The Colts, meanwhile, are coming off a narrow 19-18 loss to the Ravens after beating the Bills by a similar score in week 1. How confident can NFL bettors be about what the Colts bring into the season? All in all, there’s a lot about this matchup that has plenty NFL bettors on the fence. We’re hedging our bets as a result, backing the Colts to win but the Eagles to cover. Why don’t we feel any joy, though?


Free NFL Picks: Eagles +3 -110 
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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New York Giants vs. New York Jets
The first few weeks of the preseason doesn’t bear thinking about if you’re a Giants fan. The question is whether the stagnant offense is a sign of what’s to come in the McAdoo era. Eeeek! A bit of a worry, isn’t it? The Jets, meanwhile, haven’t really put a whole lot into their preseason. They boast a 1-1 SU and ATS record. It’s a bit up in the air with both camps with the preseason effort we’ve seen but not to the point of disfavor where the Jets are concerned. Yet, somehow they are the home underdogs? Almost unanimously the Jets are trading at +1 at the sports betting exchange. What’s the catch?


Free NFL Picks: Jets +1 -110 
Best Line Offered: at JustBet

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Tennessee Titans vs Oakland Raiders
Although the Raiders are coming off a loss to the Green Bay Packers it was a loss at Lambeau. In other words, to be expected. Certainly, it hasn’t taken the shine off of the Black and Silver in NFL betting markets as they enter week 3 as the -3 to 3.5 home faves. Titans are a promising young team and could give the Raiders a run for their money but the Raiders are more advanced in the development stage. So, in a week that is sure to see more starters playing, it’s advantage Raiders.


Free NFL Picks: Raiders -3 -120 
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle 

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Los Angeles Rams vs. Denver Broncos
In spite of a shaky quarterback performance by Denver last week, odds makers install the Broncos as the massive -5 home chalk at Mile High. That has everything to do with the top first-string defense, which is sure to see quite a bit of playing time. Still, that’s a lot of points to be laying with a side that is apparently to start rookie Trevor Siemian in week 3 after Mark Sanchez failed to wrap up the starting role the week prior. Not to mention a lot of points to be giving St. Louis, a side that is riding the wave of back-to-back wins in Los Angeles and is a solid team altogether.


Free NFL Picks: STL +5 -106 
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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NFL Sunday, August 28

San Diego Chargers vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are grafters. They take a workman’s approach to every single game and are reaping the rewards as a result. It was no fluke they won the NFC North title last season. The first two accounts of the preseason were a strong signal of intent as they dismissed both the Bengals and Seahawks. It might seem as if -4 is a touch high given the Chargers are coming off a convincing win over the Lions, but the Vikings have home advantage and their defense could give Philipp Rivers and Company some headaches. It held Russell Wilson scoreless through his brief stint on the field.


Free NFL Picks: Vikings -4 -110 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Arizona Cardinals vs. Houston Texans
Cardinals are yet to win or cover in the preseason but I dare say Bruce Arians isn’t too concerned. His priority is to conserve his veterans particularly Carson Palmer, who’s on the wrong side of 35. The Texans have a lot to prove, particularly Brock Osweiler with NFL experts speculating if he’s actually worth his price tag. Appropriately, the game is trading on a tight NFL betting line with the Texans to the good only just. Still, the Cards as the +1 underdogs do appeal more to us. Consider there’s a lot of pressure on the Texans’ new, pricey quarterback.


Free NFL Picks: Cards +1 -110 
Best Line Offered: at WilliamHill 

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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
How is it the Bengals are trading as the +1.5 road underdogs in week 3, a week that is supposedly the dress rehearsal and should see more starters playing than in previous weeks The Jaguars are still winless and without a cover in the preseason and left a lot to be desired in both accounts. As the more established side, the Bengals to cover has to be the choice NFL pick, no?


Free NFL Picks: Bengals +1.5 -106 
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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