Don't Follow the Crowd! Lean On Talented Cardinals -10 vs. 49ers

Mark Lathrop

Thursday, November 26, 2015 3:14 PM GMT

Thursday, Nov. 26, 2015 3:14 PM GMT

In a rematch of a Week 3 blowout in favor of Arizona, do the 49ers have a chance to keep this one within double digits at home? Our NFL Handicapper makes his NFL Pick.

Mark’s 2015 NFL Record: 22-16-1

Proving that they are the best in class of the NFC West so far this season, the 8-2 Arizona Cardinals travel to visit the 3-7 San Francisco 49ers in Week 12 as heavy favorites. The Cardinals are listed in the NFL odds as high as a 11.5-point favorite at sites such as 5Dimes, but can be found at -10 at GTBets. The O/U total can be found at both 44.5 and 45 at multiple books.

 

The Game
In what could be a let down spot after two critical game wins against the Seattle Seahawks and the Cincinnati Bengals, Arizona has some key injuries they will have to overcome to keep the ball rolling in Santa Clara. Pro Bowl cornerback and return man, Patrick Peterson, is dealing with an ankle strain, although head coach, Bruce Arians, thinks he will be ready to play on Sunday. Also dealing with ankle injuries are defensive tackle Frostee Rucker, and defensive lineman, Cory Redding. Their status is even more questionable as they are listed as doubtful for Week 12. On the offensive side of the ball, receiver Michael Floyd and guard Jonathan Cooper are also doubtful to play.

It is likely that the Arizona Cardinals could use this game to rest a few players on the fence, as the 49ers shouldn’t pose much of a test – especially given the outcome of their matchup in Week 3, a 47-7 Cardinal win. In that game the 49ers only gained 156 total yards in offense and lost the time of possession battle 23:28 to 36:32. The 49er defense gave up 446 yards of offense, including 9.3 yards per pass and 6.4 yards per run. The Cardinals were up 28-0 halfway through the 2nd quarter and didn’t look back.

Prior San Francisco starter, Colin Kaepernick, had the worst passing game of his career posting a 9-19, 67 yards, and a 0/4 TD/INT ratio, with two of those four interceptions being returned for touchdowns by Arizona. At least Kaepernick rushed for 46 yards and added the only touchdown of the game for the 49ers on the ground.

Kaepernick has since been benched and sent to the IR with a mystery shoulder injury and in his place is Blaine Gabbert. Gabbert has been serviceable so far, posting an 88.9 QBR, 224.5 passing yards per game, and a 62.7 completion percentage. This with next to no healthy established weapons to help him, and a 4th or 5th string running back – I can’t seem to remember which. Running back Carlos Hyde has a chance to play in this game, but still hasn’t practiced as of Wednesday.

Basically, the 49er fan base has shifted their focus on how high their draft pick could be, which is important when Blaine Gabber is your quarterback. There are already rumors that Jim Tomsula will be gone after this year as well. The Worst Offseason of All Time seems to really be taking effect down the stretch, as the depth of this 49er roster is really tested.

 

Final Analysis
And yet somehow Arizona is only garnering 60% of the consensus so far in this game on SBROdds.com. Maybe bettors are seeing this as a let down spot and putting their money to work, but I’m not buying it. I got burned backing the 49ers as a heavy home dog against Seattle and won’t make the same mistake twice. The Cardinals are just in a different class in talent on both sides of the ball and the 49ers won’t have many answers once again. I’m shopping around and finding the Cardinals at -10 at BetOnline as one of my Week 12 NFL picks.

Free NFL Pick: Cardinals -10 at BetOnline

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