Dolphins vs. Raiders Free NFL Picks for Week 3

Opportunity is surely knocking for Jacoby Brissett, who will draw the start at quarterback for the Miami Dolphins in Las Vegas on Sunday. With an already-fledging quarterback now on the shelf with an injury, Brissett may be able to sway the coaching staff with a solid performance. With it all to do, and the Dolphins struggling at 1-1, the Raiders will look to drop the hammer and move to 3-0 with a big home win.

What is the best way to bet on this one? Do we believe in Las Vegas’ big start? Is this Dolphins defense undervalued? We’ll go over the NFL odds and give out our NFL pick at the top-rated sportsbooks. 

Miami Dolphins vs. Las Vegas Raiders 

Sunday, September 26, 2021 – 4:05 PM EDT at Allegiant Stadium 

Problems at Quarterback

As the above indicated, the Dolphins are going through it right now, particularly at the quarterback position. Their starter and a first-round pick in last year’s NFL draft, Tua Tagovailoa, fractured his ribs in last week’s 35-0 loss to the Buffalo Bills, leaving on a cart early in the game. That means Brissett will draw his 33rd career start, and his first since 2019, while Reid Sinnett will be pulled off the practice squad to be the team’s backup at the position. 

https://youtu.be/2_HXygX7VTw

For his career, Brissett has been a decent, yet unspectacular quarterback. He owns a 59.6% completion percentage with 31 touchdowns and 14 interceptions in 51 games, which aren’t terrible numbers. He’s done more damage on the ground with 3.6 yards per carrying and 12 rushing touchdowns over his career. He’s also lost 11 fumbles. 

He wasn’t quite sharp enough throwing the football to hold on to the Colts’ starting job, so he was made into something of a goal-line weapon for two of the four years he was in town. He can still run the football very well, which should be a change from what we’ve seen with Tagovailoa. 

Reid Sinnett #4 of the Miami Dolphins. Dylan Buell/Getty Images/AFP

Brissett went 24-of-40 for 169 yards and a touchdown in relief of Tagovailoa last weekend, throwing just one interception and rushing for eight yards. That kind of safe performance would be just what Miami is looking for, considering Tagovailoa has been one of the most boring quarterbacks in the league. The second-year man out of Alabama has generally hovered around 200 yards through the air in his career. 

Off to the Races

Look at this, the Raiders are 2-0. Who would have thought this was possible? Despite an average defense and below-average rushing attack, this team has run roughshod so far. Las Vegas now has wins over the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers, two wins that were picked up in commanding fashion over quality teams in the conference. 

https://twitter.com/Raiders/status/1440824481472200705

Looking at the numbers, the Raiders may be a bit overvalued here. They rank 20th in yards per pass allowed and 25th in yards per rush. Despite that, they’re 10th in scoring defense thanks to 1.5 takeaways per game. Against a team that protects the ball well, Las Vegas could wind up being toast.  On offense, Las Vegas has also been quite average. It sits 18th in weighted DVOA, putting it in the bottom half of the league, with the 10th-best passing attack and second-worst rushing attack. It will probably be up to Derek Carr to deliver a win. 

Pick 

It sounds crazy coming off of such a lopsided loss, but the Dolphin's defense should be respected here. It sits 11th in weighted defensive DVOA so far this year, and this great defensive line should have the goods to get to Carr and make him panic all game long. If the pass rush can affect the Raiders’ aerial attack, Las Vegas will have little else it can do. 

https://twitter.com/Raiders/status/1440835806650945536

There are obvious concerns about the takeaway abilities of the Raiders, but I'm slightly less concerned considering Lamar Jackson has been a turnover machine and is largely responsible for those numbers after Week 1. Taking a look at the NFL odds, I have to think the Dolphins are the value here, and the betting public would agree with me considering 88% of wagers are coming in on them according to our data. Miami’s defense is the strongest unit in this game and should impact this in a big way.

NFL Pick:  (visit our Sportsbook Review)

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.