Dolphins vs. Patriots Free NFL Picks for Thursday Night Football

David Lawrence

Wednesday, October 28, 2015 8:30 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2015 8:30 PM UTC

Miami seems to be rejuvenated with Dan Campbell at the helm as they're now 3-3 after scoring the first 41 points in a 44-26 win over Houston. New England is still unbeaten after a tough 30-23 win over the New York Jets, and now they get the rampaging Dolphins, who have scored 82 points in two games under Campbell. This is a huge AFC East game taking place on Thursday night.

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Opening Odds & Line Movement
Open: -8.5 +100 at Pinnacle
The Patriots, not surprisingly, opened up as 8.5-point favorites on the NFL odds at home in this big divisional game. However, the line went down to -8 and is at -7.5 as of Tuesday as there is a growing swell of support for the Dolphins, who look like a different team. Campbell said when he took over for Joe Philbin that he wanted the Dolphins to be more aggressive on both sides of the ball and they certainly are now, and players are saying that practices are now so tough that by the time they get to kickoff, they're raring to go. However, they are facing the Patriots, who have never been one to back down to a team that is going after their crown, and led by Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, they take these sort of games personally.

Dolphins vs. Patriots ATS Odds

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Dolphins vs. Patriots Total Odds

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Dolphins vs. Patriots Money Line Odds

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Miami is quite healthy going into this game, and they should get CB Brice McCain back from a knee injury. They are going to need all hands on deck travelling to New England to give the Patriots a real test.

Meanwhile, the Patriots have all sorts of injury problems, particularly up front on the offensive line. Sebastian Vollmer is the only starter left from opening day, and he had to move from right tackle to left tackle because Nate Solder is gone for the season. Luckily, the Patriots have Brady and along with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, they've made some great adjustments. Elsewhere, LB Dont'a Hightower will be a game-time decision because of his ribs, while RB Dion Lewis was limited in practice because of an abdominal injury. 


The Dolphins have covered the spread three times this season, and they're 2-3 in their last five road games. The Patriots have an ATS record of 3-1-2 so far, and they're an impressive 14-5-2 ATS in their last 21 at home. The total opened at 52 and is now at 51, but both teams have gone over in four of their last five games.

The Patriots are 8-2 SU and 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Dolphins, who are 2-8 SU in their last 10 trips to New England, including six in a row. However, Miami has covered in half of those 10 road games.


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