Dolphins vs. Bills Week 8 Picks: Offenses Sputter

Miami got blanked by Buffalo earlier in the season but our Week 8 Dolphins and Bills picks explain why this low-scoring game will be more competitive.

This will be the second meeting between the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills this season. Dolphins fans are hoping for a different outcome this time around as the Bills (4-2 against the spread, 3-3 Over/Under) smoked Miami (2-5 ATS, 4-3 O/U) 35-0 in the second week of the season.

The Bills lost their last game but are coming off a bye and will be healthy and rested against a desperate Dolphins team. Miami has concerns across the board but it still has potential despite a 1-6 straight-up record.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 8 matchup between the Dolphins and Bills (odds via FanDuel; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Dolphins vs. Bills Week 8 Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, October 31, 1 p.m. ETTV: CBSLocation: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NYWeather: 52 degrees, 78 percent chance of rain

Dolphins vs. Bills Odds Analysis

Miami has a terrible record against the spread, but it is partly because of its quarterback situation. The Dolphins have kept it within a score in the three full games Tua Tagovailoa has played this season, losing by a last-second field goal in two of them.

The line opened at Buffalo -13.5 and bettors are favoring the Dolphins, with the SBR consensus showing over 80 percent backing Miami on the spread. Some sportsbooks have shifted it to -14, and others are requiring more than the standard $110 bet to win $100 on Miami.

The O/U is up to 49.5 at some books after opening at a total of 48.

Dolphins vs. Bills Picks

Miami +13.5 (-106) (??)Under 49.5 (-110) (???)

SEE ALSO: NFL Week 8 Power Rankings

Dolphins vs. Bills Predictions

Miami +13.5 (-106)

Considering the Dolphins lost by 35 points the last time they played Buffalo, this is a risky play. There is, however, better value on this side of the line for a few reasons.

Miami is unpredictable, but it has played in close games with Tua at QB. He has a lot of pressure with the Deshaun Watson rumors, but he also has learned how to manipulate the pocket. He had an overall quality performance in a Week 7 loss to Atlanta despite throwing two interceptions.

This game will be cold and wet, so expect it to be a low-scoring matchup. Buffalo could make more mistakes in the bad weather than it usually does and low-scoring contests always benefit the underdog.

If the Dolphins can’t rally around this game, their season will be over. They will do everything possible to win and that should at least help them cover the spread. That's why we're backing them in our Week 8 Dolphins and Bills picks.

Under 49.5 (-110)

This game could go a variety of different ways. The rain could make this a sloppy game with minimal scoring. Miami's offense could sputter and turn it into another Bills blowout, like in Week 2. Someone could get hurt and cause this game to be played conservatively.

Any of these outcomes would end with the Under hitting. It has a high chance of happening in Buffalo in the rainy cold.

The only way the Over cashes is if both offenses come out swinging. Miami has a turnover-causing defense, and the Bills have an excellent pass rush. These are the two weaknesses of their opponents, so it's unlikely to turn into a barn-burner.

Miami's QB situation also hurts the odds of the Over. The Dolphins could trade Tua by the time this game starts. It is simply hard to make a solid bet with so much uncertainty. More scenarios end in a low-scoring game, though, so that is my prediction.

This will be a test for both teams but expect the Bills to win a tight game that doesn't see many points scored.

SEE ALSO: Week 8 Underdog Picks

Picks made on 10/27/2021 at 11:53 a.m. ET.