Dolphins vs. Bills NFL Picks: Side With Buffalo -3 at Home

Swinging Johnson

Wednesday, November 4, 2015 1:46 AM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2015 1:46 AM UTC

A rematch of AFC East foes takes place in Buffalo, New York where the Bills welcome the Dolphins on Sunday afternoon. The NFL odds makers have installed the Bills as home favorites in this one but let’s examine which side we should back in our NFL picks.

Miami Dolphins (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS)
Dolphins’ management decided the team needed a new direction so they cut Joe Philbin loose as head coach and replaced him with tight ends coach Dan Campbell. The results were as impressive as they were immediate. The Miami Dolphins looked born again under the taskmaster Campbell and reeled off two dominating performances, scoring straight up victories over the Titans and Texans while covering easily for all those who included Miami in their NFL picks. There was an attitude shift and a momentum change for a team that many believed would contend for a playoff berth before the season commenced but had fallen far short of those expectations…until Campbell took the reins.

Fast forward to Thursday night of last week when the perennial powerhouse New England Patriots welcomed the Fish to Foxboro. It was a sobering dose of reality when Miami found themselves outgunned and outclassed leading to a 36-7 defeat at the hands of the defending Super Bowl champs. Ryan Tannehill tossed for 300 yards but was picked off twice and sacked twice. The rushing game never got started as the Dolphins played from behind the entire evening gaining a meager 15 yards on the ground.


Buffalo Bills (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS)
Like the team they will be hosting on Sunday, the Buffalo Bills had plenty of preseason hype and lofty aspirations to transition from a mediocre club to a serious postseason contender. The Bills had a new owner and a bombastic new coach in Rex Ryan that signaled the era of a new beginning in a city was desperate to return to their previous glory enjoyed in the early 90's when Jim Kelly was eviscerating secondaries around the league.

But after starting out 3-2 the Bills have dropped their last two consecutive outings against the undefeated Cincinnati Bengals and then suffered the most humiliating defeat of their young season to the Jacksonville Jaguars in front of an international audience at Wembley Stadium. While many believed the NFL odds makers were being far too generous in offering the Bills -3 those who have been around the game knew something didn't seem right. And sure enough the underdog Jags won the game outright 34-31. The Bills are desperate to rebound against a divisional rival in front of the fan friendlies at Ralph Wilson Stadium.


Betting Analysis
The Dolphins are banged up but suffered no bigger loss than defensive end Cameron Wake who tore his Achilles in the team's blowout loss to the Patriots last Thursday. He is a disruptive presence and to consider anyone on the Dolphins defensive side of the ball a comparable replacement is simply erroneous. However someone has to step up and that person appears to be Derrick Shelby. That is a definite plus for the Bills with no disrespect to Shelby.

Secondly the Dolphins were already blown out by these same Buffalo Bills in Week 3 by the score of 41-14 in Miami's backyard. Buffalo has won five of the last seven meetings between these clubs regardless of venue. I will grant you the Fins are now better than the team they were earlier in the season but this matchup doesn't bode well for them. Although they had an extra couple days to prepare due to their Week 8 Thursday night schooling at the hands of Tom Brady and the Patriots, the Bills have had even longer after enjoying their bye week.

Here are some stats to consider:

The Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss.

The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a ATS loss.

The Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

The Dolphins are 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. AFC East.

NFL Picks: Play the Bills -3 at YouWager

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