Dolphins vs. Bengals NFL Picks: Desperation-Filled AFC Showdown

Dolphins and Bengals team ready for action

Kevin Stott

Thursday, September 29, 2016 1:21 PM GMT

Thursday, Sep. 29, 2016 1:21 PM GMT

The loser of this Cincinnati Bengals-Miami Dolphins Thursday Night Football game will fall to 1-3 on the season. Let’s look at the trends and to make an NFL pick for this AFC matchup at Paul Brown Stadium.


Miami Dolphins vs. Cincinnati Bengals
This seems like a tough spot for Ryan Tannehill and the visiting Miami Dolphins (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 74 PS-67 PA) with the host Cincinnati Bengals (1-2 SU, 0-2-1 ATS, 66 PS-75 PA) coming off a tough home loss in Week 3 to the Denver Broncos. Sportsbooks have the host Bengals -7 (5Dimes, BetDSI) to 7½-point favorites (Pinnacle) for this Thursday Night AFC showdown. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened the Bengals 6-point chalks in its advanced line, showing perceptions changed a little after Cincinnati’s loss to Denver.

The Total across the board is at at 44 (Bookmaker, BetDSI) or 44½ (5Dimes, BetOnline, Heritage, Intertops). Meanwhile, in the moneyline, Bengals are priced at -330 at BetDSI—which earned an A+ grade here at SBR —with the Dolphins +265 on the takeback.


Key Player Injuries And Suspensions
Miami Dolphins -
  Branden Albert injured last game, "?" Thursday vs. Cincinnati (Ankle), Anthony Steen injured last game, "?" Thursday vs. Cincinnati (Ankle), Jordan Cameron expected to miss Thursday vs. Cincinnati (Concussion), Jelani Jenkins injured last game, "?" Thursday vs. Cincinnati (Thigh),  Koa Misi injured last game, "?" Thursday vs. Cincinnati (Neck), Arian Foster doubtful Thursday vs. Cincinnati (Groin), Mike Pouncey "?" Thursday vs. Cincinnati ( Hip ), Spencer Paysinger "?" Thursday vs. Cincinnati (Neck), Earl Mitchell IR (Calf), Chris Culliver PUP (Knee), Zach Vigil PUP (Back), Dion Jordan PUP (Knee)

Cincinnati Bengals - Vontaze Burfict probable Thursday vs. Miami (Suspension Served),  Tyler Eifert doubtful Thursday vs. Miami (Ankle), Mike Nugent injured last game, "?" Thursday vs. Miami (Undisclosed), Shawn Williams injured last game, "?" Thursday vs. Miami (Knee), Andrew Billings IR (Knee), Cedric Peerman out indefinitely (Forearm), Brandon Thompson PUP (Knee)


Dolphins Seem to Really Have the Bengals Number of Late
The Thursday Night Football Trends here heading into Week 4 favor the host Bengals who are 5-4 SU and ATS and 3-1 ATS at Home on TNF while Jarvis Landry and the Dolphins are just 4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS and 1-4 ATS on the Road on Thursdays. However, the specific series Trends favor Miami which has covered 3 straight vs. Andy Dalton and Cincinnati. The Dolphins are also 6-2 SU/ATS vs. the Bengals since 1992 and an impressive 5-1 ATS the L6 played in Cincinnati. And with Miami looking better than last season and the Cats—without Mohamed Sanu (Falcons)—a little bit worse, this seems like a game the Dolphins can go in and steal.


Both teams have a respectable half-yard average edge per play (YPP) this season, so defense, TOs and luck may end up playing a big part here. However, I would prefer getting the 7 (or more) points with the Dolphins-positive Trends.

Dolphins average Yards Per Play (6.3) compared to its Opponents (5.8 ypp) 
Bengals average Yards Per Play (6.2) compared to Opponents (5.7 ypp)


Predicted Final Score: Dolphins 27 Bengals 23
Free NFL Pick: Dolphins +7½ -113 at Pinnacle
NFL Picks Season ATS Record: 29-18-0
NFL Regular Season ATS Record: 20-13-0

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