Dolphins vs. Lions Picks, Predictions NFL Week 8: Shoddy Detroit Defense Exposed
Can Miami become the third straight team to pick up a much-needed win over the lowly Detroit Lions? Read on for our Dolphins-Lions picks
The Miami Dolphins are aiming to get back on track after their early-season momentum totally stalled. After a win against Pittsburgh in Week 7, they’ll head into Detroit looking to re-establish a winning streak.
The Lions have just one win to hang their hat on this season, but it did come at home earlier in the season. They’ve scored just six points in the last two weeks.
Here are our Dolphins-Lions NFL football picks for Week 8 (odds via PointsBet, BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Dolphins vs. Lions Game Info
Date: Sunday, Oct. 30, 2022
TV: CBS
Location: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Weather: Indoors
Dolphins vs. Lions Odds
Dolphins vs. Lions Odds Analysis
The Dolphins opened up as 3.5-point favorites and after a week’s worth of bets, nothing has changed. The line is stuck at 3.5 across the board, and while 76% of the bets are on Miami to cover, just 66% of the spread handle is on the Dolphins.
The total has seen some reverse splits with 44% of the bets, but 58% of the handle on the Over. It opened up at 50 and has moved to 51.5 at all books.
Dolphins vs. Lions Picks
- Spread: Dolphins -3.5 (-107 via PointsBet) ★★★★★
- Over/Under: Over 51.5 (-105 via PointsBet) ★★★★
- Prop: Jaylen Waddle Over 64.5 receiving yds (-110 via BetMGM) ★★★★
Dolphins vs. Lions ATS Pick
Dolphins -3.5 (-107) ★★★★★
There’s one unit in this game we can be sure will do its job, and that’s the Miami offense. This team ranks sixth in adjusted DVOA on offense and checks in at third in passing DVOA. Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has been nursed back to health, and he’s fresh off a 261-yard performance against a solid Steelers defense, throwing one touchdown along the way and posting a 92.7 passer rating.
Tagovailoa’s game may not look very pretty, but as long as he’s got wideouts Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill out there, things should continue to go his way. Together, they totaled 11 catches and 160 yards last week and they should be able to get the better of a Lions defense that has really struggled this season.
Detroit is 31st of 32 teams in DVOA and 31st in DVOA against the pass. They’re dead last in scoring defense, 31st in yards per pass allowed, and 28th in interception rate. This secondary is dead meat against Miami and I will gladly lay the points despite how much of a trap this may seem to be.
Dolphins vs. Lions O/U Pick
Over 51.5 (-105) ★★★★
I really don’t like betting the total here, but given what we talked about above, this one should be a high-scoring affair. After all, the Dolphins should come away with points on most possessions, given the Lions rank second-worst with a 69.57% conversion rate against them on third downs. They should be operating with the ball in Lions territory for most of the game.
I’m not sure Miami can cash this total all by itself, and I’m also a bit concerned that the Under is 5-2 so far in its games given the state of this defense. With that said, the Lions are actually ninth in scoring offense thus far, 11th in yards per pass, and fourth in yards per rush. They’ve been incredibly efficient at moving the ball and I’m pretty confident they’ll score at least two touchdowns against the 20th-best defense by DVOA.
Dolphins vs. Lions Prop Pick
Waddle Over 64.5 receiving yards (-110) ★★★★
There have been two games where Waddle hasn’t gone Over 64.5 yards, and one was against Sauce Gardner, who may be the best corner in the league right now. The other came in Week 4, when Waddle’s day was cut short due to injury.
The Dolphins are in a fantastic spot against arguably the league’s worst secondary, and Waddle is fresh off an 88-yard performance. He totaled 10 catches on 15 targets for 217 yards in his previous two games against the Minnesota Vikings and Pittsburgh Steelers, who are head and shoulders above the Lions defensively. I think this is a pretty prime spot to play this low number. He’s getting the targets.
Where to Bet on Dolphins vs. Lions Picks
Dolphins-Lions picks made 10/28/2022 at 7:01 p.m. ET
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