Dolphins to Cover the Spread as 5 Point Favorites Tonight?

Steven Suarez

Thursday, November 13, 2014 1:37 PM GMT

Two familar foes go at it on Thursday Night Football in Week 11, with the Dolphins playing host to the Bills. The NFL odds favor Miami at home - come check out why we like the home team to cover the points.

Odds Overview
The Dolphins are trading as five-point favorites in the NFL betting odds for now, but you can shop around and a find a line of four-and-a-half if you look hard enough. Utilizing multiple books is key to having success with your handicapping endeavors, and SBR's updated odds page is a great tool to help.

A total of 42 has been put on the board for now, a reasonably low number, but not one that's all that surprising. Neither of these offense are out of this world, let's put it that way.

 

Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins were rolling heading into Week 10, having won consecutive games over Chicago, Jacksonville and San Diego. All three of the victories came by at least 13 points as well, making the run even sweeter.

It looked as if Miami would be able to make it four in a row until the closing seconds of Week 10's road game in Detroit. The Lions scored a touchdown in the last minute to break the Dolphins' hearts, however.

Like many teams have already this season, Miami struggled to get much going against Detroit's vaunted defense. The Dolphins had only 228 total yards of offense in the loss, so it's not like they had a game stolen away from them. They had trouble moving the ball and putting the points on the board, and it came back to haunt them.

QB Ryan Tannehill was 27-of-38 for 207 yards with one touchdown and one interception, with Mike Wallace the recipient of the scoring throw. He finished with five catches for 51 yards, while Jarvis Landry had seven catches for 53 yards. The running game was a mess, as Lamar Miller was held to four carries for 10 yards -- overall the Dolphins had 50 yards on 19 carries.

Looking at the overall statistics, Miami is doing just fine, so we're not too worried about them losing in Week 10. The Dolphins are seventh in the NFL in rushing and are in the top 10 at both stopping the run (99.0 yards per game) and the pass (210.8 yards per game). Toss in a solid Tannehill and some playmaking ability at the wideout spots, and Miami won't be going anywhere.

 

Buffalo Bills
Following a Week 9 bye, the Bills couldn't get the job done in a home loss to  the Chiefs this past weekend.

Offensive futility was on display for Buffalo, who could only put 13 points on the board despite racking up 364 total yards of offense. 

Kyle Orton had 259 yards and a passing touchdown without accounting for a turnover, but wasn't able to get it done in the red zone. The Bills went 0-for-4 in the red zone in the loss, and that's why they ended up losing.

The run game was led by Anthony Dixon, who had nine carries for 62 yards. Bryce Brown had seven rushing attempts for 35 yards and added a team-high six catches for 65 yards, while Chris Hogan had five catches for 57 yards and a TD.

All things considered, it was a pretty good showing from Buffalo's defense, as they held Jamaal Charles and company to 278 yards of offense. The Bills have done some great things defnesively this season and will try to put forth a similar showing in South Beach this Thursday.

 

NFL Pick
Just a few days removed from a hard-fought loss to the Lions, we imagine the Dolphins will redeem themselves by putting together a complete performance on their way to a straight up win and ATS cover.

The Bills have been too hit-or-miss for our liking this season, as we never really know when they're going to show up.

As a result, we feel more comfortable choosing the Miami Dolphins for our NFL picks.

Free NFL Pick: Dolphins -5 at YouWager