Looking to keep within striking distance of the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East, the Miami Dolphins take on a Los Angeles Chargers team that needs to avoid slipping in the wild-card race. Here are our Week 14 Dolphins-Chargers same-game parlay NFL picks based on the top odds.
The Dolphins (8-4) and Chargers (6-6) have relevant playoff implications riding on their Sunday Night Football matchup in Los Angeles. We’re looking to exploit a mispriced point spread and combine it with player props from the other side in a projected high-scoring affair.
Here are my same-game parlay picks for the Week 14 Sunday Night Football matchup between the Dolphins and Chargers (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Dolphins vs. Chargers Odds
- Chargers +3.5 (-118)
- Jeff Wilson Over 42.5 rushing yards (-110)
- Jaylen Waddle Over 68.5 receiving yards (-110)
Combined Odds: +756
Chargers +3.5 (-118) ★★★
Both offenses should do work on Sunday night in one of the more compelling matchups of the week. But doesn’t a prime-time bout between Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert feel like the kind of game that should come down to a field goal?
Though the Chargers have only a 6-6 record this season, they have underperformed their talent level due to injury. But Los Angeles expects all of its main contributors on offense healthy for the first time in a while, as Mike Williams practiced in full late this week. Miami ranks 23rd in the league in pass defense DVOA, which could lead to a big night for Herbert.
Miami is 2-4 against the spread as a road team this season, including 1-2 ATS as an away favorite. The Chargers are 7-5 ATS this season, and they covered the spread in their lone appearance as a home underdog. Miami is getting too much credit with this line.
DraftKings lists Los Angeles at +3.5 with -120 odds, providing slightly less value than the FanDuel line at -118.
Since acquiring him from San Francisco at the trade deadline, Miami has given Jeff Wilson plenty of run to eat into the opportunities for incumbent Raheem Mostert. But last week against those 49ers, Wilson got only one of those eight rushing attempts, making him a potentially risky guy to back in Week 14.
I’m chalking up last week’s lack of touches to the negative game script and the fact that Wilson played for the opposing team five weeks prior. Wilson recorded no fewer than nine carries each in his three previous games as a Dolphin, clearing this rushing line in two of the three. The Chargers’ defense ranks 30th in the NFL in run defense DVOA, meaning there should be openings for both Miami runners on Sunday night.
Since Wilson’s FanDuel line (42.5 yards) is lower than Mostert’s (46.5 yards), I’m leaning toward the more attainable total in this split backfield. DraftKings lists Wilson at -115 odds to gain 45-plus rushing yards, so FanDuel’s -110 odds on a lower rushing total is the preferable line.
Jaylen Waddle Over 68.5 receiving yards (-110) ★★★★
Jaylen Waddle was hampered by injury throughout last week’s loss and was limited to one catch. That seems to be having a disproportionate impact on his yardage line for Sunday night now that he’s off the final injury report heading into the game.
We’re happy to jump on the discount for Waddle against a Chargers pass defense that ranks 20th in yardage at 220.1 per game. Prior to last week’s dud for Waddle, he had posted 66 or more receiving yards in nine of 11 games this season. As long as he’s healthy, Waddle should be locked into a prominent role in a favorable matchup Sunday.
Because I feel better about identifying a couple of key contributors from the Miami side more so than the likes of Keenan Allen, Williams, and Joshua Palmer, I’m locking in two Dolphins player props with the Chargers on the point spread to enjoy an odds boost on a contrarian play.
Where to Bet on Dolphins-Chargers SGP Picks
Dolphins-Chargers SGP picks made on 12/11/2022 at 2:22 p.m. ET