Dolphins vs. Buccaneers Free NFL Picks for Week 5

The Miami Dolphins are not having a good time of it since Tua Tagovailoa went down, in fairness, it wasn’t great before that, but Jacoby Brissett is showing why he’s not a starter in the league as they struggle to move the ball and fell further behind in the AFC East, can they do anything against a Buccaneers team who scraped to a win against the Patriots but suffered more injuries to their leaky secondary?

The top online sportsbooks don’t seem to think so, lining the Dolphins as double-digit underdogs on a total of 48. Read on to take a look at the NFL odds and start making your NFL picks. 

Miami Dolphins vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday, October 10, 2021 - 01:00 PM EDT at Raymond James Stadium

Will the Dolphins Be Able to Compete?

It doesn’t look good for the Dolphins, the offensive line issues make moving the ball very tricky for them. Jacoby Brissett at least made the passing game more effective than the run game this week, averaging a mighty 6.6 yards per attempt, an upgrade on the 4.4 from the previous week against the Raiders, but a lot of those yards came when the game was over against the Colts last weekend.

https://youtu.be/vCuVdEk4IGM

The short passing game is good for a couple of players, Mike Gesicki has had 18 targets in the two weeks with Brissett under center, mainly short passes as they have to get the ball out quickly and he found the endzone last week.

Jaylen Waddle is being turned into their new version of Jarvis Landry with a lot of short targets each week while when they had to move the ball they did make use of Devante Parker at the end of the game.

https://twitter.com/MiamiDolphins/status/1445405803104686084?s=20

Their strength is on defense where Xavian Howard and Byron Jones do well against outside receivers, so they should be OK against two of the three Bucs studs in that position, the worry would be the third who will get the easier coverage. Jones left the game last week with a Quad injury, he’s one to keep an eye on as the game gets closer.

Will the Bucs Dominate?

The reigning Superbowl champions and current second favorites at +600 will be looking to stomp on someone after sneaking a win in Foxborough. When you’ve got one of the best defensive lines in the league going up against one of the worst offensive lines there’s usually only one way the game is going. The Bucs defensive line should be in the backfield all day with the terrible protection the Dolphins are likely to roll out there. It could be a long day for Jacoby Brissett.

The run defense of the Bucs is elite as well, the Patriots didn’t even bother trying last week finishing with 8 carries for -1 yard in their game on Sunday night. I can’t see that number being too much higher here.

Chris Godwin #14 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Harry How/Getty Images/AFP

Offensively the Bucs should be able to move the ball in the middle of the field, so whoever they play in the slot should be on for a busy game, and I would take the likes of Godwin and Evans to beat any corner they go up against no matter how highly-rated.

Their run game has been poor although they did seem to stick with Fournette last time out, giving him 20 carries for 91 yards. This is the type of game they can do similarly and try to establish a bit of momentum from the position for games going forward.

https://twitter.com/Buccaneers/status/1445524200211443715?s=20

Can They Cover Double-Digits?

With the issues the Dolphins have had moving the ball in recent weeks I have had to force myself away from the over which was my first thought in this one. The Bucs secondary is beaten up and teams should be able to throw against them, but I just don’t think the ‘Fins will be able to take advantage of that area of weakness.

For my NFL pick, I don’t fancy the Dolphins to keep it tight, so I’ll take the Bucs on the handicap.

NFL Pick: (visit our Sportsbook Review)

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.