Dolphins-Bills Opening Odds Hint to Total Play

Steven Suarez

Monday, September 8, 2014 5:27 PM UTC

Monday, Sep. 8, 2014 5:27 PM UTC

Both of these AFC East teams picked up straight wins as underdogs in Week 1, but only one will get the job done in Week 2. The Bills will play the role of the home team this Sunday and the NFL odds are currently in their favor.

* * U P D A T E * *

We haven't seen a lot of movement with the NFL odds for this Week 1 tussle between division foes.

Right now, the spread is still at a PK, while the total is mostly at 43 and 42.5 at the sportsbooks we've looked over.

Neither team has any really significant injuries to report, and both are feeling confident after great Week 1 wins.

The Bills went into Chicago and stole what could turn out to be a huge road victory, while the Dolphins protected their home field in style, topping Tom Brady and the Patriots at home. Both teams covered their respective spreads as the NFL betting underdogs.

Looking at the different angles and situations, we don't see much of an edge in taking either side. Buffalo, of course, has the advantage of being at home, but Miami looked really good Week 1 and will like their chances here.

With that being said, we're instead going to hone in on a total play, and look for the two defenses to help keep the game's final score UNDER 43. Both units seem a little underrated at this point, so there appears to be value in this number.

NFL Pick: UNDER 42.5 at 5Dimes

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* * O R I G I N A L * *

It's a straight toss-up in terms of the betting lines for Sunday's matchup in Buffalo.

At a PK, the NFL odds suggest that the Dolphins are the better overall team, considering you normally get three points with home-field advantage. On a neutral site, Miami would therefore be favored by a field goal. Alas, it's the Bills that are home, and they did manage to get a huge Week 1 win on the road.

The O/U has moved down from 43.5 to 43 already, but there's still plenty of time for further movement.

Buffalo in 2014-15 Regular Season: 1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS, +3.0 margin of victory

Miami in 2014-15 Regular Season: 1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS, +13.0 margin of victory

The Bills held on to win 23-20 in Chicago in Week 1, a great showing for a team that was a significant underdog coming in.

E.J. Manuel may not have had the sexiest numbers, but he was efficient, completing 16-of-22 pass attempts for 173 yards and a touchdown (with one interception). Robert Woods recorded a team-high 78 yards on four receptions. The running game clicked well, as Manuel, Fred Jackson, C.J. Spiller and Anthony Dixon combined for 193 yards and another touchdown.

The Dolphins were also able to finish on the winning side as dogs in Week 1. They toppled Tom Brady and the Patriots 33-20 at home. They saved their best for the second half, out-scoring New England 23-0 after the break.

Credit Ryan Tannehill (18-of-32 for 178 yards, two touchdowns, one interception) for leading Miami's offense well enough, though it should be said the running game is what really had success. Knowshon Moreno looked great, running for 134 yards and a score on 24 attempts. Lamar Miler added 59 yards on 11 carries.

Defensively, Miami was able to shut down New England's run game, and the team also had success against the pass, holding Brady to 29-of-56 completed pass attempts and only one touchdown. Against a legendary quarterback like that, the Dolphins should be proud.

Next up for Miami is a road test in Buffalo, with one of these AFC East teams set to move to 2-0 on the year. This is going to be a tough game to cap, so there's a good chance we'll focus on the total. Find out for sure later in the week when we deliver our free NFL pick.

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