Dolphins ATS Best Bet for Week 9 NFL Picks vs. Chargers

Jason Lake

Tuesday, October 28, 2014 12:28 PM GMT

It’s open season on the San Diego Chargers. They’ve failed to beat the NFL odds in three straight games, and they’re off to play the Miami Dolphins, who are fresh off back-to-back road wins SU and ATS.

Jason’s Record After Week 7: 22-29 ATS, 7-11-1 Totals

Profit: minus-29.68 units

 

The wheels on the San Diego Chargers do not go ‘round and ‘round anymore. After a very strong 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS start to the 2014 regular season, the Chargers have dropped the cash in each of their last three games. You could see the wheels falling off the bus the whole time; first, it was a narrow 31-28 win over the Oakland Raiders (+7.5 at home). Then the competition improved, and San Diego lost by three points to the Kansas City Chiefs (+3 away), and by 14 points to the Denver Broncos (–9).

This week’s opponents fall somewhere in the Kansas City zone. The Miami Dolphins (4-3 SU and ATS) got off to a slow start this year, but they’re 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four games, including road wins over the Chicago Bears (–3) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (+7). That’s good enough for Miami to be a 1-point home favorite on the Week 9 NFL odds board for Sunday’s matchup (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS).

 

What’s that Smell?
Apparently the market has developed a strong distaste for Fish. Our consensus reports at press time show Miami pulling in just 35 percent support, even with the football odds shifting slightly from –1 (–125) to PK (–125). You can also find the Dolphins available at –2.5 with positive vigorish if you shop around. We normally advocate taking the deal on the vig, but be aware that your risk of ruin will increase slightly. You might want to use a smaller bet size so that your bankroll can absorb the extra ATS losses you’ll pick up.

And we are indeed going to have to recommend the Dolphins in this case. Going into Week 8, they were No. 10 (No. 11 offense, No. 3 defense, No. 32 special teams) and rising on the DVOA charts at Football Outsiders, while the Chargers were clinging to No. 8 overall (No. 5 offense, No. 23 defense, No. 11 special teams). One would think they’d switch places after last week’s events, and if the Dolphins happen to be the “better” team on neutral ground, they should be at least –2.5 with the standard –110 juice.

 

The Last Shall Be First
In some kind of magical, fairyland marketplace, that is. Every market in the real world has its biases, and right now, the NFL betting market is biased against the Dolphins. They were the No. 26-ranked team on the public money charts (mind the extra week off, though) as we went to press, while San Diego was No. 4. People are used to bad things happening in Miami – it’s going to take more than a couple of road wins to change people’s minds. Likewise, you’d expect the market to be slow to react to San Diego’s fall from grace after making such a strong initial impression.

This is ultimately why we’re putting Miami in our Week 9 NFL picks. And we’re willing to bet a little larger because the Dolphins have had their bye week to heal up and work on things. We’d push it even further, but as good as Miami is on defense, those special teams are the worst in the league. Jarvis Landry is doing great returning kick-offs; however, his punt returns have been far less impressive, and everything else about the kicking and the coverage has been substandard. That makes the Dolphins a bit less attractive. Hardly a deal-breaker, though, not this week.

 

The Five Stars
Injuries/Suspensions/Travel/Rest: MIA
Defense/Special Teams: EVEN
Coaching: SD
Market Bias: MIA
Betting Line Value: MIA

Verdict: 2-star pick on MIA

Free NFL Pick: Bet 3.5 units on the Dolphins –1 at Bookmaker

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