The Dolphins get Ryan Tannehill back along with a benign schedule to improve on a dismal 6-10 record from a year ago. Check out some favorable spots to possibly back and fade Miami.
Miami is ahead of the game even before the season begins, knowing quarterback Ryan Tannehill has returned after missing last season because of a knee injury.
Below you will find the Dolphins’ straight-up and against-the-spread records from last year’s NFL regular season, including average margin of victory, 2017 average odds, 2017 win totals and 2018 pre-scheduled figures, and projected strength of schedule using opponents’ combined record from 2017.
2017 SU Record: 6-10 (-7.0 avg. margin)
2017 ATS Record: 5-9-2 (-2.4 avg. margin)
2017 Average Line: 4.6
2017 Win Total: 7 (-130)
2018 Win Total 5Dimes (pre-schedule): 7 (+110)
2018 Strength of Schedule: T-15, opponents were 128-128 (.500)
Three Games to Back ATS
Lions, Week 7; Patriots, Week 14
One spot the Dolphins shine under starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill is in projected high-scoring games at Hard Rock Stadium. They are 11-5 SU and ATS with the seven-year pro under center, covering a 0.8 average line by 5.6 points per game. All but three visitors have entered with below-average passing defenses, allowing more than 240 passing yards per game. Miami has surpassed its projected team total in 12 of the 16 contests, averaging 25.8 per tilt. Expect the Lions and Patriots to trigger this situation. Both have averaged a road total higher than 44 points in each of the last nine seasons. They also ranked in the bottom seven in opponent passing yards allowed in 2017: Detroit 26th (243.3 per game) and New England 31st (256.3).
Raiders, Week 3
The Dolphins will likely kick off small underdogs at home to the Raiders. For whatever reason, Miami shows up in this clash between 1970s-era rivals. Since 1990, it is 4-2 SU and 4-1-1 ATS, easily topping a 3.2 average line by 10.5 points per game. The Dolphins pushed a 3-point spread in a 27-24 home defeat last season behind Jay Cutler.
Three Games to Fade ATS
@Vikings, Week 15; Jaguars Week 16; @Bills Week 17
The Dolphins struggle mightily against good pass defenses under Tannehill, particularly in projected close games or when expected to lose. They are 12-22 SU and 13-21 ATS all-time behind the signal caller when squaring off against a team that yielded fewer than 235.5 opponent passing yards the previous year. Miami averages a measly 17.2 points per game. When a short-priced favorite of a field goal or less, or as underdogs, the record dips to 7-19 SU and 9-17 ATS overall. The Dolphins fight for just 16.9 points per game here. This will likely be the market conditions in Tannehill’s final three games of the regular season against the Vikings (205.7 per game), Jaguars (190.1) and Bills (221.4).
Trap Game Potential
@Texans, Week 8
The Dolphins' lone prime-time kickoff is a Thursday night visit to Houston in Week 8. Tannehill and the Dolphins hung 41 points on the Texans the last time these two met in October 2015. It is Miami’s only win in eight meetings. The number might be tempting here, but take note that Tannehill is 1-5 ATS in night games, coming up 5.6 points shy of a 1.1 average line. He averages just 6.5 yards per pass, 0.8 TDs, and 1.0 INTs.