After a few days to track market moves and dive further into game handicaps, it’s time to update our NFL parlay picks for the Divisional Round!
With a week’s worth of handicapping, analysis, news updates, and tracking line moves, we have finalized our top NFL parlay picks for the Divisional Round. With a full menu of player props now available for action as well, bettors have plenty of options to choose from when selecting their parlay picks for this weekend’s playoff action. As readers will see, this very article offers you multiple options as well.
Here are my updated top parlay picks for the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Divisional Round NFL Parlay Picks
Ryan Tannehill Under 238.5 passing yards (-110) ★★★★
Jimmy Garoppolo Under 1.5 touchdown passes (-154) ★★★★
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Over 53.5 (-115) ★★★
SEE ALSO: NFL Divisional Round Picks Roundup
Divisional Round NFL Parlay Predictions
Tannehill Under 238.5 passing yards (-110)
The Tennessee Titans are set to welcome back their best offensive weapon in running back Derrick Henry for Saturday’s playoff game against the Cincinnati Bengals. However, to say that the Titans completely changed their offensive identity during his absence is simply foolish.
From the time Henry went on injured reserve following the Titans’ Oct, 31 game to the end of the regular season, Tannehill surpassed 237 passing yards only twice in nine games. Both of those performances were against the Houston Texans. Now that Henry is back, are we really supposed to anticipate Tannehill having a higher yardage total?
When it comes to Tannehill’s history in the postseason, he has totaled only 534 yards passing in four career starts, all with the Titans. That averages out to 133.5 yards per game, over 100 fewer than the prop total for this Divisional Round matchup. Tennessee has two superstar names playing wide receiver in A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. However, it is clear at this point that the Titans are not willing to deviate from their offensive identity. The last place one should expect that to change is in the postseason.
SEE ALSO: Bengals vs. Titans Picks
Garoppolo Under 1.5 TDs (-154)
One of the major talking points ahead of Saturday night's NFC Divisional Round game has been the shoulder injury of San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. In fact, several NFL betting analysts were skeptical of whether or not Garoppolo would even be able to play in this game. While those concerns have since died down, the 49ers will undoubtedly look to lean on their run game in an effort to keep their quarterback healthy. Thus, the prop line of 1.5 touchdown passes for Garoppolo feels a bit high.
From a matchup standpoint, the Green Bay Packers have actually proven to be more vulnerable against the run anyway. This could play right into head coach Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers' hands on Saturday. It seems safe to expect a heavy dose of both Elijah Mitchell and do-everything wideout Deebo Samuel in the ground game. If the 49ers find success running the football, they will have little onus to have Garoppolo do more than is absolutely necessary to keep drives alive.
In addition, having a strong power run game is very impactful down in the red zone. While the 49ers have been red-hot as a team recently, one would have to go back to Dec. 12 to find the last time Garoppolo threw multiple TD passes in a game. Grab the Under 1.5 TD passes as the safest leg of our NFL parlay picks.
SEE ALSO: 49ers vs. Packers Picks
Bills-Chiefs Over 53.5 (-115)
After initially including the Kansas City Chiefs laying 1.5 points in our early Divisional Round parlay, we are now pivoting to playing the Over on the line of 53.5 in their playoff game with the Buffalo Bills. The general reasoning for this adjustment is the perceived safety of the pick. No matter which side ultimately emerges victorious on Sunday night, points should be scored in bunches.
The Bills and Chiefs have played three times total with Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes as the respective quarterbacks. Of those three matchups, two surpassed even the lofty NFL betting total of 53.5. This includes the Bills' 38-20 romp at Arrowhead earlier this season. The only matchup that did not surpass this Over/Under line was the regular-season meeting in Buffalo last year. For those who don’t remember, that game was played on a Monday evening in heavy winds and rain and featured 69 combined rushing attempts to 53 total passes.
SEE ALSO: Bills vs. Chiefs Picks
Weather reports for Kansas City on Sunday night show clear skies and little to no wind. As a result, both sides should be able to put up some offensive fireworks. For what it’s worth, the Chiefs remain the preferred side against the spread simply given the inconsistency of the Bills. In addition, it’s nearly impossible to see the Chiefs losing to the same team twice on their home field in the same season.
Combined NFL Parlay Odds: Tannehill Under 238.5 (-110) + Garoppolo Under 1.5 TDs (-154) + Bills-Chiefs Over 53.5 (-115) = +488
Additional NFL Divisional Round Parlay Picks
For those interested in upping the anty on their Divisional Round NFL parlay or perhaps some alternative picks to the three discussed above, we have you covered! Below are two additional bets to consider for this weekend’s playoff slate.
Both come from the only game not a part of the three-leg parlay above with that being Sunday’s NFC Divisional matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Feel free to mix and match any of these picks as you please!
Rams +3 (-118) vs. Buccaneers ★★★
Van Jefferson Over 35.5 receiving yards (-114) ★★★
Rams +3 (-118)
This represents the lone holdover pick from our early NFL Divisional Round parlay selections. The significant losses that the Buccaneers have been dealt offensively may not have mattered against a fringe playoff team last week, but the Rams present a much tougher challenge in the Divisional Round. After repeatedly raising doubts with lackluster performances, L.A.’s star-studded defense came to play in a big way against the Arizona Cardinals on Monday.
While the Rams will likely struggle to run the ball against Tampa Bay, QB Matthew Stafford and his receivers should enjoy favorable matchups.
SEE ALSO: Rams vs. Buccaneers Picks
Jefferson Over 35.5 receiving yards (-114)
Speaking of those favorable matchups for Los Angeles in the passing game, wideout Van Jefferson continues to be overlooked in the NFL props market. Although the second-year pro has not seen many targets recently, he continues to deliver when his number is called. His lone reception in the Wild Card Round went for 41 yards.
In addition to the Rams likely throwing the ball more this week given the matchup, Jefferson’s big-play ability gives him the potential to surpass 35.5 receiving yards on a single play.
What’s more, Jefferson finished with four catches for 42 yards on six targets in the regular-season meeting against the Bucs. Tampa Bay will have no choice but to help on Cooper Kupp in the slot. This figures to open things up on the outside for Jefferson again in the playoff rematch.
2-Leg Same-game NFL Parlay Odds: +268
5-Leg NFL Parlay Odds: +2067
NFL parlay picks made 1/21/2022 at 6:15 p.m. ET