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Top Expert Betting Picks for NFL Divisional Round

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Top Expert Betting Picks for NFL Divisional Round
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes eludes the tackle of Mario Addison of the Buffalo Bills during the first half of a game at Arrowhead Stadium. Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images via AFP.

Check out our NFL Divisional Round expert picks for the best against the spread and Over/Under bets.

The second round of the NFL playoffs is set to feature some really exciting games.

The defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers welcome Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams to Tampa Bay. And the action concludes with a highly anticipated rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game as the Buffalo Bills visit the Kansas City Chiefs.

But before all of that, two historic franchises meet when the San Francisco 49ers travel to Green Bay to take on the Packers. And it all gets started earlier Saturday when the Cincinnati Bengals march into Tennessee to try to dethrone King Henry and the Titans.

Here are the top ATS and O/U picks for the Divisional Round from our team of NFL betting experts (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and Barstool Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Top NFL Divisional Round Expert Picks

SEE ALL: Top Expert NFL Prop Picks for Divisional Round

Top NFL Divisional Round ATS Picks

Chiefs -2 (-110 via DraftKings)

The Bills went into Arrowhead and stomped the Chiefs in Week 5, but they defeated a very different team. The Chiefs' offensive line was still learning how to play together, and the defense couldn't stop a nosebleed.

Not only has Kansas City looked like its old self on offense, but it's also played strong defense during the second half of the season. That's a scary proposition for Buffalo, which just faced a much weaker offense than it'll get in this one. The step up from rookie Mac Jones to Patrick Mahomes should prove too steep for the Bills' secondary. Buffalo is blitzing 10% more without top corner Tre'Davious White. That's a dangerous game to play with Mahomes, who has better numbers against the blitz than without pressure.

Kansas City takes the postseason rematch, just as it did last year's AFC title game. - Ducey

Home-field advantage is huge at this point. That showed in the wild-card round when all but one home team - the Cowboys - emerged victorious. Additionally, the Chiefs are the only favorites this weekend Under 3.5 points.

Buffalo played essentially a perfect offensive game vs. the New England Patriots last week. The Bills became the first team in NFL history to go a playoff game without a punt, field goal, or turnover. However, as was previously mentioned, there's a large gap between the Patriots and this Chiefs team.

Though the Bills won at Kansas City in Week 5, the Chiefs haven’t lost - and covered five straight - at home since then. Mahomes has 20 passing touchdowns and just one interception in seven career playoff home games. Meanwhile, Buffalo is 0-6 in games decided by fewer than 12 points this season. - Jordan

49ers +6 (-109 via Barstool)

The Packers surely dreaded this divisional-round matchup the most. The 49ers employ a run-heavy offense and the type of pressure defense that can give the NFC’s top seed fits. San Fran has eliminated Green Bay in their last three playoff matchups. The Packers won this matchup in Week 3, though it came on a last-second field goal for a 30-28 scoreline.

Expect the 49ers to again stay within the number in another postseason classic between two of the league’s marquee franchises. - McClymont

Bengals +3.5 (-110 via DraftKings)

The Bengals are my favorite upset pick of the weekend, and it’s not because I think the Titans are a weak No. 1 seed. It’s more about Joe Burrow and the way his offense matches up against the Titans' defense. Tennessee is generally strong against the run, but the Titans are susceptible to big plays, especially through the air.

Tennessee owned the seventh-worst mark with 263.8 passing yards allowed per game this season. And if the Bengals are going down this week, they'll do so by raging against the dying of the light with their passing game. Burrow will lean on Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd to keep his team in this game.

I like the Bengals to win this outright (at +150 or +160 on the Moneyline depending where you look). So getting the hook at +3.5 feels like a really favorable line on the point spread. - Schaeffer

Top NFL Divisional Round O/U Picks

Rams-Buccaneers Over 48.5 (-110 via DraftKings)

These two teams ranked in the top 10 in seconds per play this season, but the total doesn't reflect that. Tampa Bay is at home, where it was 5-4 to the Over during the regular season. The Over also went 8-5 when the Buccaneers were coming off a win this season. Similarly, the Rams were 7-4-1 to the Over when coming off a win and 5-3-1 against the total on the road.

Though both defenses ranked inside the top 10 in weighted DVOA, that might not matter with two of the most explosive offenses in football on the other side. - Ducey

49ers-Packers Under 47 (-110 via DraftKings)

The weather is my biggest reason for going Under this number. The forecast for Saturday night is a low of one degree with winds from 10 to 15 mph. That raises the question: do you trust Jimmy Garoppolo - who's already dealing with injuries - in those conditions?

San Francisco will want to pound the Packers with the running game to chew the clock and keep Aaron Rodgers off the field. The Niners' run-first strategy worked against Dallas, and their pass rush gave Dak Prescott fits en route to a total of 40 points. They should look to replicate that formula.

This one reminds me of when the Rams visited Lambeau in the divisional round last year and managed only 18 points. The Under is 5-1 in the Niners’ last six overall. - Jordan

Bills-Chiefs Over 54 (-110 via DraftKings)

Last year’s AFC Championship game finished well above this total at 62 points, and the teams combined for 58 in Week 5. The Chiefs and Bills both rank in the top five in total offense and scoring offense. The Chiefs own an 11-7 O/U record, and the Over has cashed in their last six games.

Hopefully, the crew at Arrowhead Stadium stocked up on fireworks because plenty of points are again expected in the most anticipated game of the weekend. - McClymont

49ers-Packers Over 47 (-110 via DraftKings)

The lowest O/U of the week is a game I expect to feature a lot of scoring. In fact, I picked up a wager earlier this week at around +600 odds for this to be the highest scoring total of the weekend.

We should expect Matt LaFleur’s group to be amped up and ready for anything the San Francisco defense might throw at it. With the benefit of the Lambeau faithful on their side, the Packers could score 30 points and assert their dominance as the most dangerous team remaining in the playoff field.

As for the 49ers, I think they'll find a way to stay competitive in this game. I’m not sure this one features quite as many points as the aforementioned 30-28 game from the regular season, but Deebo Samuel has since been revealed as a much more significant weapon for the offense. He adds another layer to the 49ers’ offensive dynamic for this one, allowing San Francisco to move the ball with regularity for consistent scoring drives.

Both offenses average more than 25 points per game and rank in the top 10 in the NFL in offensive yardage. Though there’s definitely a world in which San Francisco forces a game script closer to the one it used against the Cowboys, I like the consistency of the Packers' offense to shine through and force this total to at least 50 points. That makes this line a value. - Schaeffer

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